In 2012, collingwoodfc.com.au has again enlisted the help of David Natoli, aka DaVe86, who has shot to internet fame for his in-depth Magpie tactical previews. 

Since publishing his first report on Nick's Bulletin Board in early 2005, DaVe86 has become a weekly favourite among the passionate online Magpie Army receiving thousands of views for each article.

The articles are lengthy and have been published in their entirety as the club did not want to hinder DaVe86's creativity during the writing process.

The views expressed in DaVe86's previews are solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Collingwood Football Club.

While most of the attention is currently on the Aussies over in London, the AFL home and away season is really heating up with only five rounds remaining until the finals series.

Collingwood faces St Kilda at the MCG this Saturday night in what shapes as a season defining game for both sides. The Magpies are currently in a real battle to hold onto a top four spot, while the Saints sit one game outside the top eight in tenth position. Undoubtedly, there is plenty on the line this Saturday night.

Both sides are coming off massive victories in round 18 against lowly ranked opposition. The Magpies had a 120-point victory against Greater Western Sydney, while St Kilda made light work of the Bulldogs, winning by 76 points.

St Kilda has been a very difficult team to read this year. The Saints have only managed to win consecutive games on two occasions. On the other hand, they have also only lost consecutive games on one occasion. Consistency has been a huge issue for new coach Scott Waters as he tries to introduce fresh players into the side and develop a rejuvenated game plan.

Collingwood’s form has been equally as patchy over the last month. The impressive win against Geelong in round 16 came between two very disappointing losses against Carlton and Hawthorn.

The Saints will believe they have an advantage against Collingwood given the intimate knowledge Scott Watters contains about Collingwood players. He was a very important component of the Magpies coaching panel before accepting the St Kilda coaching job and will know a lot of the strengths and weaknesses of individual players.

On the other hand, Collingwood has a genuine home ground advantage playing at the MCG considering the Saints have only played at the home of football on two occasions so far this year. The Magpies have played at the MCG 12 times.

At the Selection Table
Collingwood could make up to five changes this week after a number of players were absent from the GWS game last round. Steele Sidebottom, Dale Thomas, Darren Jolly and Harry O’Brien are all chances to return to the side. Sharrod Wellingham is also available for selection after a three-week suspension. His inclusion will add valuable speed and x-factor to the half forward line.

Caolan Mooney will miss two weeks after suffering a hamstring complaint last round.

Turning attention over to St Kilda, and we are unlikely to see too many changes at the selection table following a solid win over the Bulldogs. The Saints’ VFL affiliate Sandringham had a bye last round so fringe players were unable to press their claims for selection.

The only major concern for the Saints is Adam Schneider who was subbed with hamstring complaints last round. Scans have cleared him from serious damage, and he remains a chance to play on the weekend. Terry Milera will be on standby if he is unable to pass a fitness test.

In other injury news, Rhys Stanley and Jason Blake continue to edge closer to return.

Focus on Collingwood
Collingwood’s prime midfielders continue to win the footy. However, the major concern for the Magpies over the past month has been defence. There are question marks over the ability of the back six to compete one on one with their opponents. I feel the biggest concerns over the past month have been the inability of the Magpies to lock the ball inside attacking 50 and the dominance of the opposition through the midfield. This has really exposed the Magpie defenders against quick ball movement.

Carlton and Hawthorn in particular have both managed to pierce the Collingwood set up with ease. The Blues exposed the Pies for speed, while the Hawks were able to use pinpoint precision passes.

Travis Cloke - Cloke returned to form last week against GWS kicking six goals. However, it was against a young side. With greater challenges to come, Magpies supporters will be hoping it gives Cloke a boost in confidence and he is able to find a rich vein of form in the lead-up to finals. The Saints are short for key position defenders, so Cloke has a real opportunity to dominate on Saturday night. He is likely to face either James Gwilt or Tom Simpkin as an opponent, both of which he should have too much strength for.

Alan Toovey - Toovey has again snuck under the radar this year and continues to be a key component of the Magpies defence. He is one player in the backline who is very competent one on one and his closing speed is a real asset. He plays a vital role for the Magpies this week, as St Kilda possesses a number of very dangerous small forwards. He may get the match-up against Ahmed Saad, or could even find himself on the in-form Stephen Milne.

Dane Swan - It’s hard not to make mention of Dane Swan after a five goal and 37 possession game. This is coming off a 49-disposal effort in a losing cause against Hawthorn. Swan is an absolute machine and looks to be at the top of his game at the moment. I think the Saints will opt to play Clinton Jones on the Brownlow Medallist and do their best to limit his influence. The return of Scott Pendlebury has definitely assisted Swan who has been given more freedom. Importantly, Swan is also spending more time on the field now as he has proven to be a very competent forward. He is quite reliable in front of goal, good above his head and deceptively quick on a lead.

Focus on St Kilda
I made mention above about St Kilda’s inconsistency so far this year. In some regards, it was to be expected with a new coach coming in. Ross Lyon was a disciplined coach, but very rarely blooded new players into the side. Scott Watters has introduced a number of new faces and has brought a more attacking style.

In some regards, the willingness to open the game up has come at the expense of that ruthless defensive mindset that St Kilda was renowned for. I believe it will have long-term benefits for the Saints, but in the interim they can be quite easy to score against if you are able to penetrate their zone. A number of sides such as Richmond have been able to open up the forward line and get a number of easy goals over the top.

It is a work in progress for the Saints who are still trying to find the right balance. There are still holes in the side as well in the ruck and in regards to key position defenders. Nonetheless, when St Kilda has played well, it has looked very impressive and could match it with just about any side in the competition. The midfield is still star-studded, and has been complimented by the emergence of youngsters such as Jack Steven and Armitage. The forward line is still very strong, and has a dangerous mix of talls and smalls.

Yet, for the emergence of a number of young players, it has been some of the veterans who have found very strong form lately and will prove the greatest threat to the Magpies on Saturday night. Lenny Hayes in particular has been very solid returning from knee injury in 2011 and continues to be the heart and soul of the St Kilda midfield. A 28 possession, 3 goal and 7 tackle game against the Bulldogs is evidence enough that he is still a force to be reckoned with.

Nick Riewoldt - Many had written off the Saints’ skipper at the beginning of the year. The truth is that he is having a terrific season and is sneaking under the radar to some extent. He is fifth on the goal-kicking table with 44 goals and is fresh off a four-goal effort against the Bulldogs. He leads the Saints for marks, and is also ranked fourth in the whole competition in this area. In fact, he has taken more marks than any other key forward in the competition. His contested marking in particular has really stood out this year. He is likely to face Nathan Brown as an opponent. This will be the first time these two players have squared off since Brown took the honours in the 2010 Grand Final. Riewoldt will seek the opportunity to take revenge and also stamp his authority on the game.

Brendon Goddard - Goddard’s season by his own admission has been far from his best. However he bounced back last week and responded to the task of tagging the Bulldogs skipper Matthew Boyd. Goddard had 33 disposals and nine tackles. This is Goddard’s best return since round two against the Gold Coast where he also had 33 disposals. Goddard has really struggled with the extra attention he now receives but really seemed to respond to having a defined role last round. Don’t be surprised to see him square off against Pendlebury this round. Alternatively, he may be required to go back into defence to help provide cover for the Magpies talls.

Jack Steven - I have always thought Steven was a really talented prospect, but he suffered from lack of opportunities under Ross Lyon. He has been shown a lot of faith by Scott Watters and has really developed as a front-line midfielder for the Saints this year. He is not a huge possession winner compared to the other stars in the St Kilda midfield, but he adds real pace and flair. It is a component of the St Kilda midfield that has been lacking for some time. He also kicks goals and takes the game on. He is the sort of player that can sneak under Collingwood’s radar.

The Wrap Up
St Kilda is in some pretty good form despite a few inconsistent results. Collingwood’s intensity needs to be switched right on from the get go because the last thing the Magpies want is for the Saints to gather momentum early. With players like Montagna, Hayes, Dal Santo and Goddard running through the middle, the Saints can be devastating in attack.

If Collingwood can get on top around the clearances and give its talls plenty of opportunity, the Magpies should prove too strong as they are a more even team across the board. If Jolly returns, he should also prove too strong for McEvoy who is rucking without any real assistance at the moment.

This will be a real test for Collingwood who needs to regain its best form quickly before the finals series. Despite the win against GWS, the Magpies have a very tricky draw on the run home and cannot afford a loss against a side currently sitting outside the top eight.

By David Natoli?

Aka DaVe86