Collingwoodfc.com.au has enlisted the help of David Natoli aka DaVe86, who writes what are arguably, the most popular Magpie previews published on the internet. 

Since publishing his first report on Nick's Bulletin Board in early 2008, DaVe86 has become a weekly favourite among the passionate online Magpie Army receiving thousands of views for his previews.

The articles are lengthy and have been published in their entirety as the club did not want to hinder DaVe86's creativity during the writing process.

The views expressed in DaVe86's previews are solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Collingwood Football Club.

DaVe86's previews will be published throughout the club's finals campaign.

Qualifying final preview

It’s hard to believe another home-and-away season has drawn to a close, and finals footy is already upon us. This is the time of the year where true champions of the game are made and history is written. It should be a cracking finals series as well, with three genuine premiership contenders and two dangerous challengers in the hunt.

After what has been a very even season, Collingwood won the minor premiership and enters September in a strong position to win its first flag in 20 years. The Magpies’ first opponent will be the Western Bulldogs, who have entered September in totally opposite fashion. Injuries, illness and sackings have turned the second half of 2010 into a nightmare for the Bulldogs. Nonetheless, they were still good enough to claim the double chance and still present as a dangerous opponent first up. ??On the opposition - The Western Bulldogs

The Western Bulldogs entered the 2010 season on a real high after recruiting Barry Hall and winning the NAB Cup. Many experts had them earmarked as premiership favourite. However, from their opening round one loss to the Magpies, the Bulldogs never really gained any momentum. They won five consecutive games between rounds 15-20, and many thought this was the beginning of a real run into September. However a nasty flu struck down key players, followed by a number of serious injuries.

They also enter September with major question marks over their ability to beat top sides. They are yet to beat Geelong, St.Kilda or Collingwood in 2010. To win a flag, the Bulldogs will likely have to beat all three of these sides. This will be made all the more difficult considering they have some real injury concerns. ??

On Collingwood
Turning attention to Collingwood, and the grass is a little greener on this side. The Magpies also have some minor injury worries; however they have the confidence of only dropping one game in the second half of the year. They have also played their last 10 games at the MCG in all different types of conditions which is going to serve as great practice for finals. The Magpies also boast the impressive record of having beaten every top-eight side at least once this year, including recent wins over Geelong and St.Kilda.

Their one loss was last round against Hawthorn, whilst they were far from impressive against Adelaide in round 21. The Magpies will quickly have to flick the switch and return to their best form by Saturday night. They have also had a terribly inaccurate last month in front of the goals. Inaccuracy alone threatens to derail what has been a terrific season.

Much has been made about Collingwood’s two big pre-season signings in Luke Ball and Darren Jolly. Both have had terrific years. However, I can’t help but think that the reason they were recruited was specifically with finals in mind. Therefore, they are going to play a huge role in Collingwood’s fortunes over the next month.

This week’s preview will take an in-depth look at all the tactics and match-ups for Saturday night’s big game. A bumper crowd is expected, although the weather forecast is for some rain. So let’s get stuck into the analysis.

Recent History
Collingwood won both encounters in the 2010 home-and-away season by 36 and 10 points respectively. Both games had a similar feel to them, with Collingwood skipping away to an early lead before the Bulldogs pegged them back.

It makes the start very important this week for the Western Bulldogs. Collingwood has been a terrific first quarter side all year, and also has the fitness to run games out well.

Collingwood’s best players in these games have been Dane Swan (35 & 31 disposals), Alan Didak (seven goals combined) and Leon Davis (six goals combined). For the Bulldogs, Matthew Boyd has been given a lot of freedom and amassed huge numbers (38 & 36 disposals) whilst Barry Hall has kicked seven goals.

Selection News
Teams will be released at 5:00pm Thursday night.

The Bulldogs will obviously be without at least Cooney, Morris and Jordan Roughead. Brad Johnson and Ryan Griffen are listed as 50/50 chances to play. Griffen in particular would be a crucial loss considering Cooney is already out. Easton Wood, who has made his mark for the Bulldogs in the second half of the year, is also a chance to return from a hamstring injury.

The positive news for the Bulldogs is that Shaun Higgins is a definite starter this weekend after he has finally overcome illness and groin troubles. He has been a huge loss for the Doggies and his presence will help nullify the loss of Cooney to some extent.

The Magpies look set to make at least three changes to the side that lost to Hawthorn in round 22. Leigh Brown will return from suspension, whilst Ben Johnson looks set to return after he was a late withdrawal last week.

There are question marks still hovering over Alan Didak, with a rumour sweeping the internet that his injury is more serious than first thought and he could be out for the year. Footage of Didak training this week proves that he is good to go and he should also be an inclusion this week, although he is still listed as a test on the injury list and may be in doubt for Saturday’s game. Simon Prestigiacomo is the other concern. Will have to wait and see.

Paul Medhurst has also pushed for selection over the past fortnight with two really good VFL games. Leon Davis looks likely to retain his spot, whilst rookie Jarryd Blair has done little to suggest he will lose his spot either.

Expect both sides to name its injured players, however we could see a few late changes, especially if the weather is wet.

Tactics

Collingwood’s commitment to the forward press has been the hallmark of its game in 2010. The forward pressure has made Collingwood the number one turnover side in the competition, and turnovers have in fact become one of Collingwood’s main avenues to goal.

In each of the battles this year, the Magpies have been able to shut the Bulldogs run down across half back. There is no doubt that Rodney Eade will be instructing his men to take the game on and take more risks. Holding the ball up against Collingwood is playing into their hands because they set up their defensive structure to force teams wide.

On the other hand, if the Bulldogs do take more risks, it does present the opportunity for the Magpies to force more turnovers. Therefore, it is important the Bulldogs get the ball into the hands of their best players like Griffen, Harbrow and Higgins.

I suppose that with the recent run of injuries and form, the Bulldogs should approach this game with an underdog status. This status is dangerous, especially for a side like the Bulldogs who are so talented and skilful across the board. If they take the game on and play with reckless abandon, then they have what it takes to break down Collingwood’s structures.

Rodney Eade will have also looked at how Adelaide and Hawthorn unsettled Collingwood in the past fortnight. Adelaide was able to utilise precision kicking across half back and run through the corridor with a chain of handballs. Hawthorn was able to bomb the ball in long to give its forwards one out opportunities. The Bulldogs will be looking to combine these two strategies, by taking the game on across half back, then getting it in quick and long to Barry Hall.

Obviously weather is going to play a role. If it is wet, it will make it hard for the Doggies to play this game plan. The battle could therefore be won through contested footy, with Cross going head to head against Ball.

Collingwood’s A-game will be to have it’s tackling intensity at full strength and to force its opponent to over possess. The pleasing thing for Malthouse will be that Collingwood’s intensity has not flattened at any stage this year. If anything, Malthouse will be expecting his team to take the tackling pressure to an even higher level in September. The Magpies will also look to exploit the Tom Williams match up, as he will be asked to play a greater role in the absence of Morris. Williams is likely to get Cloke or Dawes.

Key match-ups

Defence

Barry Hall v Prestigiacomo/Nathan Brown - Presti typically plays well against Hall, however Barry has had two decent games against Collingwood this year. If Presti does not pull up, then expect Brown to get the match-up. Hall will become a huge factor if Prestigiacomo does not play and the Bulldogs manage to get the ball in quick and fast.

Jarrad Grant v Ben Reid - Grant has been a real positive story for the Doggies in 2010. He finished the season with a career best six goals against Essendon. He is a skinny lad, but he is still a great contested mark and is incredibly quick for his side. Malthouse however will fancy the Ben Reid match-up because Reid is perhaps just as strong in a marking contest, and quite quick as well. Collingwood defenders are going to peel off their opponents and look to double team Barry Hall. So if the Bulldogs can lower their eyes, they should be able to bring Grant into the game as he will not get the same attention.

Shaun Higgins v Alan Toovey - Considering Higgins enters this finals series short of a bit of match practice and having just recovered from a terrible illness, it is likely he will spend a lot of time up forward. This will especially be the case if Brad Johnson does not pull up. Toovey is probably the best Magpies defender to take this role as he is quick enough to take him, and a strong tackler.

Daniel Giansiracusa v Harry O’Brien - Opposition teams have begun putting a lot of focus onto O’Brien and stopping his run off half back. Giansiracusa may be asked to go play on Harry and try to kick goals on him. At stages this year when Cooney has been missing, Giansiracusa has been asked to play midfield, and has done this job really well. So expect him to also play a bit through the middle as well. O’Brien is a key play-maker for Collingwood, and there is no doubt Eade will have a plan for him. I think he will start with this match-up.

Keep an Eye out for: Heath Shaw?
Heath has a good record against the Bulldogs, and had 36 disposals in the Round one clash this year. Shaw has played the majority of his football in the 2nd half of the year as a wingman, but I think Malthouse will go back to using him across half back in the finals. This is because without Shaw, Harry O’Brien is getting too much attention and not dealing with it well. Now that most sides are anticipating Shaw in the midfield, he should be able to switch back into defence without much attention. If Brad Johnson plays, he will take this match-up.

Midfield
Luke Ball v Daniel Cross - As I previously alluded to, this could be the key match-up on the ground, especially if it rains. Ball was recruited to Collingwood to give the side a harder edge in finals, so this is where he must step up. Contested footy is going to be a real key for both sides. Collingwood’s forward press only works if the ball is going forward, so Ball will have to win clearances. Expect a few bandages and cuts from both these players. They are tough as nails, and very similar in the sense that they will look to handball before kick.

Alan Didak v Liam Picken - Picken could also move onto Dane Swan. However, if Didak plays, I think Rodney Eade will prefer to shut him down first as he has kicked seven goals in the last two matches against the Bulldogs. Swan is probably going to get 30 disposals whether he is tagged or not, so the Bulldogs may believe Didak is more taggable, especially since he has a suspect shoulder and may play a more outside role.

Dane Swan v Matthew Boyd - With Picken tagging Didak, I think this then becomes the logical match-up. Both Boyd and Swan have had terrific years and been their side’s most consistent players. Each has also been dominant in the two recent clashes. I think this will be a head-to-head battle, however Boyd may be instructed to play a bit tighter on Swan. Otherwise, Addison could get this match-up as a tight tag.

Ryan Griffen v Dale Thomas - In Round 11, Malthouse used Thomas head-to-head against Griffen, and in turn, limited Griffen’s influence to less than 20 disposals. I think the Bulldogs will take the punt on Griffen’s knee, so I’m sure Collingwood will look to test it out by sending one of its hardest runners onto him and try to exploit the injury. Other options for the role include Wellingham or Macaffer who played on Burgoyne last week.

Scott Pendlebury v Callan Ward - Without Cooney, Collingwood’s depth through the midfield begins to become a real factor. If the Bulldogs select Addison, then he may be asked to do a job on Pendlebury. Scott has been selected in the All-Australian squad of 40, which is recognition for a career best season. His recent form has been fantastic as well. With Didak and Swan so dominant, he is still sneaking under the radar. Brodie Moles could also take this role.

Player to Watch out For: Nathan Eagleton
The veteran has struggled to reclaim his spot this year, however he is just the sort of player who can surprise in a finals game. His run off a wing could break the game open, and you can guarantee that Collingwood is not going to put a heap of attention into him. If the game is tight, then Eagleton’s ranging left boot could break it open with a quick goal. He is likely to go head to head with Wellingham, where his experience will be a factor.

Forward

Travis Cloke v Tom Williams - The loss of Dale Morris really hurts the Bulldogs as he typically gets the job on Cloke. Eade has three options to take the big Collingwood Centre Half Forward. They are Hargrave, Lake or Williams. Considering Cloke leads so high up the field, I don’t think Eade will go with Lake, and I think Hargrave isn’t strong enough. That leaves Williams who has a decent tank and good strength as well. Williams has taken a long time to develop due to injuries, but it may be time to throw him in the deep end in a big game and ask him to do the job on Cloke.

Chris Dawes v Brian Lake - Lake will much prefer the match-up on Dawes who is less mobile and likely to stay at home. He may also be asked to play on Leigh Brown when he rolls forward. Lake’s strength is always supreme; however it could be tested against Dawes. Nevertheless, Lake becomes very dangerous on the counter attack where he zones off and wins a lot of the footy. Dawes will have to be conscious of this.

Lindsey Gilbee v Brent Macaffer - Gilbee is such an important player to the Bulldogs and will be crucial on Saturday night as he is the Bulldog defender who has the capacity to pinpoint passes through the Collingwood zone. Macaffer played midfield last week on Burgoyne, but I think Malthouse will elect to use him in a forward tag role this week on Gilbee. Importantly, I think Macaffer will out-mark Gilbee and should be able to put score-board pressure on him. Stopping Gilbee will go a long way to the Magpies winning this match.

Leon Davis v Jarrod Harbrow - This match-up has not worked for the Bulldogs in the last two encounters with Davis kicking three goals in each game, and there is a chance Harbrow may be used in the midfield this week. However, typically Harbrow takes the small forward and works off him. I think Davis will retain his spot due to the need for forward pressure.

Robert Murphy v Dayne Beams - Murphy is likely to play across half back, and I think he’ll be forced to match-up on either Beams or Sidebottom who are playing most of their footy on a half forward flank.

Player to watch out for: Steele Sidebottom
He was one of Collingwood’s best players in a disappointing finals campaign last year, and is proving a really dangerous crumbing forward this year. He has already proven in his short career that he is a big game player, so the Bulldogs have to be mindful of allowing him freedom around goals because he has a terrific goalsense and a real ability to read the ball off hands from either a ruck or marking contest.

The Ruck
Jolly/L.Brown v Hudson/Minson - Darren Jolly is perhaps the form ruckman out of the top-four sides and his role in finals is going to be critical to Collingwood’s journey in September. In recent years, the ruck has been the main deficiency in finals. Hudson is likely to match Jolly in the actual ruck battle, but his versatility around the ground is the real issue.

Minson is likely to return for the injured Roughead. Both he and Leigh Brown will look to push forward hard to create a third tall marking option. Both defences will be stretched when this occurs. In fact, I think the Bulldogs will elect to use Lake or Mitch Hahn on Leigh Brown when he rolls forward as he has proven more dangerous than Dawes over the last two months.

The Wrap-up
I could analyse the game all day, but ultimately, accuracy is the key for Collingwood. Simply put, Collingwood has got away with inaccuracy until now, but it will not win September matches with bad kicking for goal. The Magpies either have to take the most of their opportunities, or risk blowing a golden opportunity for a premiership.

I am expecting the Bulldogs to come out really fired up and take a lot of risks. However, when analysing the two midfields, it became apparent to me that Collingwood’s goes just a bit deeper considering Cooney is out, whilst Johnson and Griffen are doubtful. Having no Akermanis this finals series is also a bit of a blow.

My tip??
Collingwood by 18 points

By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86