Since publishing his first report on Nick's Bulletin Board in early 2005, DaVe86 has become a weekly favourite among the passionate online Magpie Army receiving thousands of views for each article.
The articles are lengthy and have been published in their entirety as the club did not want to hinder DaVe86's creativity during the writing process.
The views expressed in DaVe86's previews are solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Collingwood Football Club.
After a few weeks off, I return to preview the round 14 clash between Collingwood and Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium this Saturday.
The Magpies are fresh from their round 13 bye and will start the game as favourites. Collingwood entered the bye in good form having won its previous three games by an average of 55 points.
Nonetheless, as Sydney and Geelong will attest to, having a bye is not always a good thing when a side has momentum.
Port Adelaide caused one of the upsets of the season last round, defeating the red hot Sydney Swans by 18 points. The win put the Power back in the top eight and only one win behind the Magpies who sit in seventh place. Port Adelaide is clearly an improved side in 2013 but it needed a big scalp to really establish itself in the competition. The victory against the Swans will give the Power a lot of confidence leading into this week’s game.
Under new coach Ken Hinkley, Port Adelaide has become a very fit side which prides itself on running out games strongly. There is also a big focus on defence, with the Power conceding on average only 83 points a game. The Magpies are conceding 89.
It will be interesting to see how Port Adelaide backs up from its huge win against Sydney last week. It was no doubt a bruising encounter played in difficult conditions. Collingwood will be fresh but will need to be mindful of arriving at the game with the right mindset and preparing itself for a confident Port Adelaide side which now believes it can mix it with the better sides in the competition.
The weather forecast shows wet conditions again in Adelaide, which means contested footy and tackling will be central to victory. Collingwood needs to tame a hostile crowd early and also keep a high level of intensity for the whole match considering Port Adelaide can finish games strongly.
Recent History
The Magpies dominate recent history between these two sides, having won the previous six encounters, three of which were played at AAMI Stadium.
The one and only meeting in 2012 was in round four and was played at Etihad Stadium. Collingwood won the game by 24 points. Harry O’Brien put a patchy start to the year behind him, polling the three Brownlow votes. He had 29 disposals playing loose in defence. Kane Cornes was Port Adelaide’s best player with 37 disposals and polled the two votes, while Travis Cloke polled the one vote kicking four goals.
Dane Swan’s record against Port Adelaide is astonishing, averaging 39 disposals over his last five games against the Power. His form leading into the bye was very good, so expect yet another big game from the champion midfielder.
At the Selection Table
Starting with the Magpies, Nathan Buckley is finally starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel on the injury front.
Luke Ball and Andrew Krakouer will be available for selection and would both be handy players in wet conditions. Krakouer was terrific at VFL level before the bye, picking up 25 possessions and 8 clearances, while Ball has recovered from a minor calf injury.
Clinton Young was also impressive in the VFL in his first game for the year since injuring his hamstring in round one. He may require another week at VFL level before he is available. Lachlan Keeffe also made a successful return and Caolan Mooney showed good form.
In further pleasing news, Dayne Beams is closing in on his return and Nathan Buckley said yesterday that the club is hoping that he will be able to play at VFL level in the next few weeks. He will be crucial player in the run home to the finals.
Turning attention to Port Adelaide, and the Power will be sweating on the availability of key players Travis Boak and Jackson Trengove. Boak is a 50/50 chance to play after injuring his finger, but the Power will be desperate to regain their skipper.
John Butcher and Paul Stewart were late withdrawals last round but should also be available for selection while Cameron Hitchcock may also be in line for selection after missing last week with an ankle injury. The Power may also consider Brent Renouf who has been impressing in the SANFL in the ruck, but Matthew Lobbe has been doing a fine job at AFL level in the ruck.
Focus on Collingwood
Despite inconsistent form all season, Collingwood is well placed with eight wins and four losses. With so many key players still to return to the side, the Magpies could be well equipped for an all out assault on finals. However, with such a low percentage, the Magpies need to keep winning and cannot afford losses to teams it should be beating. Port Adelaide is a tricky assignment given its form this season.
Nathan Buckley’s main concern will be getting his team to play four quality quarters. In the last few rounds, despite comfortable winning margins, the damage was done early in the game and the foot was taken off the pedal. Against a fit side like Port Adelaide, the Magpies need to put together a solid four quarter effort.
That said, Buckley will be impressed with Collingwood’s defence, having only conceded 155 points over the past three rounds. Although it has been against lower ranked sides, it has still been pleasing to see the defence look much more settled. Despite the improved defence, Collingwood still ranks second in the competition for uncontested possession which shows that offensively the Magpies are still winning a lot of the football.
Heath Shaw – Shaw is having a very solid season, and his past fortnight in particular has been very good. He had 22 disposals against the Bulldogs but most impressive was his intercept marking. He took 11 marks for the game, nine of which were intercepts. His courage is unquestionable. He is benefiting from Paul Seedsman’s form across half back, but what has impressed me most is the fact that he has been willing to play on dangerous small forwards in the absence of Alan Toovey whilst still winning a lot of the football. He may find himself on the dangerous Robbie Gray this weekend.
Marley Williams – Continuing on the theme of defence, Williams deserves a fair bit of credit for his efforts over the last five rounds. In the absence of Toovey, Williams has been playing on the best opposition small forward and has been doing an almighty job. He gives 100 per cent and plays very close to his opponent. He will be very important going forward, and may find himself on the dangerous Chad Wingard this weekend.
Dane Swan – As mentioned above, Swan has averaged 39 disposals against Port Adelaide in his last five encounters. After a disappointing match against Sydney in round nine where he only had 23 disposals, he has averaged 38 disposals in the last three matches. He should be a beneficiary of the bye and will also enjoy having Luke Ball back in the side.
Kyle Martin – The Magpies’ coaching staff was very excited about the prospects of mature aged recruit Kyle Martin after dominant performances in the VFL. He has not disappointed since his debut and has average 18 disposals in his first three games. He has also kicked on average two goals a game and has shown a lot of poise in front of goal. Buckley is using him as a high half forward where his tackling ability and clean foot skills have been a feature. Martin faces a tough task to hold his spot given a number of senior players are still to return to the side, but if he keeps kicking goals he will be very hard to displace.
Focus on Port Adelaide
Port Adelaide proved itself to be a strong wet weather side last round and will be a very dangerous opponent. The Power needs to restrict Collingwood’s uncontested football, which may be assisted by wet conditions. Importantly, it also needs to find a way to stop Travis Cloke and Dane Swan.
Port Adelaide is a very young and talented team but has a good emerging spine and its depth has improved as well. Its defence has improved, as has its ball movement. The one area for concern for Port Adelaide is its contested marking as it ranks seventeenth in the league in this statistic. Again, the wet weather may even out the aerial contest.
Chad Wingard – Wingard was the x-factor for Port Adelaide last week. In wet conditions, he was extremely clean, kicking three crucial goals to go with his 20 disposals. He has kicked 22 goals for the year (an average of nearly two a game) and is also averaging 22 disposals a game, making him one of Port Adelaide’s most important players. This is a huge achievement for a second year player and he looks set to become one of the stars of the competition. He is the sort of player that doesn’t need to win a lot of the ball to tear a game apart. Expect the Magpies to really lock down on Wingard as he was the difference last week.
Hamish Hartlett – Hartlett is another of Port Adelaide’s most important players, and will be especially so if Travis Boak has another week on the sidelines. He has settled in across half back and the midfield this year and has averaged 20 disposals. After a great start to the season, Hartlett is now the player most teams decide to tag as his influence can decide games. The tag slowed down Hartlett’s output for a few rounds but his last month has been much better. Expect Buckley to use Brent Macaffer in his traditional half forward role against Hartlett this week to try and tag him out of the game and also try to expose him offensively.
Kane Cornes – Many doubted Kane Cornes could deliver this level of football anymore, despite the fact that he was the best and fairest winner for the Power last year. His 2013 season to date has been amongst one of his best, averaging 28 disposals a game, and also playing a tagging role on may key players. He tagged the red hot Dan Hannebery last round and totally shut him down, allowing him only 13 disposals. It will be interesting to see whether Hinkley gives Cornes a tight tagging job on either Pendlebury or Swan, or gives him freedom to win the ball. I suspect he will be given a tight tagging job on Pendlebury.
Matthew Lobbe – Many considered Lobbe the best afield last week against Sydney, with nine disposals, 37 hitouts and 11 tackles. Importantly he nullified the impact of the in-form Myke Pyke without the assistance of a backup ruckman. Lobbe is an improving ruckman, and will give Darren Jolly something to think about this week considering he is very athletic for his size and won’t back down from the physical contest.
Brad Ebert – Ebert’s move to Port Adelaide has really energised his career and his game against Sydney last round was very important. He was able to win 26 disposals, but importantly was able to nullify the influence of key Sydney ball-winners. He may find himself head to head this week against Luke Ball or Dane Swan, which will be a huge test for Ebert. Nonetheless, he is forming a key part of Port Adelaide’s developing midfield.
The Wrap Up
Despite the fact that this is definitely a danger game for Collingwood, I think the Magpies have the strength across the board to win this game comfortably. A lot will come down to the mindset the Magpies bring into the game and whether they can play four consistent quarters. It will also be interesting to see if the curse of the bye strikes again.
Collingwood has a great record at AAMI Stadium and has won 12 of its previous 16 games interstate.
Weather conditions may have a say, but either way I think the experience of the Collingwood midfield and the marking targets up forward should prove too much for Port Adelaide to handle.
However, Port’s victory against Sydney last round definitely shows that the Power is not a side to be taken lightly.
Pies by 25
By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86
