In 2013, collingwoodfc.com.au has again enlisted the help of David Natoli, aka DaVe86, who has shot to Internet fame for his in-depth Magpie tactical previews.

Since publishing his first report on Nick's Bulletin Board in early 2005, DaVe86 has become a weekly favourite among the passionate online Magpie Army receiving thousands of views for each article.

The articles are lengthy and have been published in their entirety as the club did not want to hinder DaVe86's creativity during the writing process.

The views expressed in DaVe86's previews are solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Collingwood Football Club.

The penultimate round of the AFL home and away season is upon us, with Collingwood and West Coast to open the round this Friday night at the MCG.

In years gone by, this game would be considered a dead-rubber considering Collingwood can no longer make the top four yet is also secure in the top eight, and West Coast is mathematically out of contention for a top eight position.

However, there is still a chance Collingwood could be forced to travel to Adelaide to play the Power if the Magpies lose their next two games and Port Adelaide win. A win this week secures a home Elimination Final.

There is still something to play for this round in the context of both sides’ fate this season. Nonetheless, both sides had disappointing losses last week and will be looking to restore some pride.

Collingwood played with good intensity and effort last week but was ultimately outclassed by ladder-leaders Hawthorn. The Magpies would have been disappointed with their skill level and inability to stick crucial tackles. It was a real let down after two terrific weeks of football whereby it looked as if the Magpies were back to their absolute best.

West Coast on the other hand was blown away by a rampaging Geelong with the match effectively over by quarter time. The Eagles would’ve felt as if they were an outside chance to cause an upset given their impressive effort against Essendon the week prior. However, injuries have severely taken a toll on them and they met the full force of a hungry Geelong side last Saturday.

Turning the focus onto Collingwood, and there could be a temptation for coach Nathan Buckley to be experimental with team selection, or alternatively rest some key players considering a top eight spot is now secure but a double chance is out of reach.

I think Buckley will resist this temptation considering it has taken the better part of 20 rounds to obtain some consistency in regards to team selection. Now is the time to get stability in the side before September. It will be a tricky assignment this week against a highly unpredictable West Coast outfit that is capable of good footy. Collingwood will be looking at this match as an opportunity to start gathering momentum ahead of September.

Recent History
Amazingly, this is the first time these two sides have met so far this year. You have to go back to last year’s Semi-Final for their last encounter. It was Collingwood that won on that occasion by 13 points. Dayne Beams was terrific with 30 possessions, whilst the usual suspects in Dane Swan and Scott Pendlebury had 29 each. Dale Thomas also reminded the football world that he is a big game player booting three crucial goals and turning the match on its head.

For the Eagles, Daniel Kerr had 29 disposals and Josh Hill booted two goals. Gaff was also impressive with 26 disposals, while Dean Cox was dominant in the ruck.

Collingwood has won eight of its last nine matches against the Eagles.

At the Selection Table
Both sides have battled with injuries this year. Whilst Collingwood’s injury situation has slowly improved, West Coast’s has continued to deepen.

Despite three weeks without a change to the side, Buckley will be forced to make at least two changes this week with Jamie Elliott and Ben Sinclair ruled out due to injury. Elliott’s injury may pave the way for Alan Didak, who was the leading disposal getter in the VFL with 34 disposals, to return. He was inaccurate with one goal and five behinds but the game was played in very windy conditions. Paul Seedsman seems to me to be the likely replacement for Sinclair after a 24-disposal game in the VFL.

Darren Jolly was the other notable player to perform strongly at VFL level last week. He had 24 disposals and 34 hitouts. His selection may not be automatic considering Brodie Grundy’s strong form, however Buckley may consider playing the two designated ruckmen. Ben Hudson also performed well in the VFL with four goals. Others who will put their hands up include Ben Kennedy, who had 30 disposals at VFL level and Kyle Martin who booted three goals and found plenty of the football again. Both would be suitable replacements for Elliott. Andrew Krakouer did not play last week due to illness but was in solid form beforehand.

The sad news to come this week revolved around Dale Thomas who re-injured his troublesome ankle and has now been ruled out for the year. More positively, Clinton Young is in line to play in the VFL this week as he makes a last minute bid to be available for finals.
Turning attention onto West Coast, and it has been a struggle for coach John Worsfold to field his best side all season. Daniel Kerr, Mark LeCras, Nic Naitanui, Shannon Hurn, Mark Nicoski and Beau Waters have all been ruled out for the year and Luke Shuey is also likely to miss another week with a hamstring injury.

Chris Masten will face a fitness test after he was a late withdrawal last week with hamstring tightness. Worsfold may be forced to call upon a number of fringe players to fill the void with Adam Selwood and Matt Rosa impressing in the WAFL.

Other potential inclusions could be Cale Morton who had 32 touches or Brad Dick who kicked four goals. Dick, in particular, would be a great story if he could break into the team after years of battling injury for both the Magpies and West Coast. It would be great to see him play once more, especially against his old side.

Focus on Collingwood
There was a lot to like about the effort from the Magpies last week but also a lot to be disappointed about. Hawthorn threatened to blow Collingwood away numerous times yet the Collingwood midfield rallied and the defence held up in the second half. Collingwood would be keen to tidy up its disposal and stick its tackles this week against the Eagles. These are the two areas that cost the Magpies last week against the Hawks.

Brodie Grundy – I have been hesitant to write about Grundy simply because I didn’t want to get too excited too soon. A part of me has always believed that he was only minding the ruck position until Jolly returned. However, in just four games, Grundy has just about cemented the number one ruck position and has shown everyone why he was rated so highly as a junior. He is getting better with every week as well. I thought his game last week against Hawthorn was his best yet, with 20 disposals and 28 hitouts. His aggressiveness is the key though. Grundy is never out of the contest, tackles with intent and is slowly beginning to show greater authority in marking contests. Considering he had no pre-season, there is so much upside to Brodie. It is going to be a huge test and learning curve this week against the West Coast champion Dean Cox. He may be aided by the support of Darren Jolly if he is recalled.

Harry O’Brien – Since returning to the side in round 18, Harry has been in sparkling form. He looks angry and is tackling with great intent (taking six tackles in each of his last two games). Importantly, he is winning the ball offensively but also contributing defensively. He has also kicked a goal in each of his last four matches, which has added an extra dimension to his game. The team lifts when Harry kicks a goal and so does the crowd.

Nathan Brown – It has been a mixed bag for Nathan Brown over the last month, having done terrific jobs on Jarryd Roughead and Scott Gumbleton but getting soundly beaten by Kurt Tippett and Jeremy Cameron. He will again be tested this week as he will likely play on Coleman Medal fancy Josh Kennedy or young Jack Darling. It is a huge test for Brown who will be hoping to find consistency given the fact finals is not far away and Collingwood has struggled to contain power forwards this year. He is forging a good partnership with Lachlan Keeffe who is growing in stature with every game he plays.

Focus on West Coast
The Eagles have had a year they would rather forget. Injuries are obviously an excuse, but the fact is that West Coast has simply been unable to find any consistency or fluency in their play. West Coast has been soundly beaten all year in the middle with so many key playmakers out and it is going to be a huge test against this star-studded Collingwood midfield.

The one area that the Eagles remain strong in is the ruck division. They remain second in the competition for hitouts while the Magpies are languishing in last spot. Therefore, Cox could be the key considering he is likely to face a fifth gamer in Brodie Grundy.

Josh Kennedy – Kennedy has been the shining light for the Eagles in 2013 and is equal first in the Coleman race with Jarryd Roughead and Jeremy Cameron (all have 60 goals). His contested marking remains a feature, as has his accuracy in front of goals booting 60 goals and 20 behinds. What is most impressive though is his ability to lead high up the field to produce a target, and also lay forward 50 tackles. His aggression for a big man is top class, and he averages three tackles a game. The Eagles will need a big bag from Kennedy this week if they are to win the game.

Sharrod Wellingham – The former Magpie gets his first chance to come up against his old side this Friday night in front of the vocal Collingwood army. Wellingham was a part of the trade that saw Collingwood land the draft pick which secured Brodie Grundy. Sharrod got injured during the pre-season through a freak trampoline accident and did not play until round six. He has only played eight games for the season but has found his best form over the last month averaging 24 disposals and 1.5 goals a game. He will worry the Magpies with his pace and could be a very important player. With so many key players missing from the Eagles midfield, Wellingham needs to step up and continue his solid form.

Matt Priddis – Priddis is one of the silent assassins in the competition. With Dean Cox tapping the ball down his throat, Priddis continues to notch up large numbers and always dominates in clearances. Although the Eagles midfield has struggled in 2013, Priddis continues to deliver solid numbers, averaging 26.2 disposals. He was one of his side’s better players last week with 29 disposals. He needs a big game on Friday night as the Eagles need to nullify the influence of the Collingwood midfield. He is likely to square off against Luke Ball and the battle between these two will be very intriguing. If Luke Ball gets on top around stoppages, there will be no stopping Dane Swan and Scott Pendlebury. If Priddis can feed the ball out to guys like Wellingham and Andrew Gaff, then the Eagles may be a chance considering they have the tall timber up forward to worry the Magpies.

The Wrap Up
Although the Eagles can never be taken lightly, I think the Collingwood midfield is too deep and too talented. I struggle to see West Coast stopping Collingwood’s fab four. Playing away should not worry the Eagles as six of their nine wins have been interstate this year. However, I think Collingwood will completely outrun West Coast and seal a home final.

Collingwood needs to shut down Priddis and nullify the influence of Cox. This will help maintain the dangerous forward line consisting of Kennedy and Darling. Up the other end, Travis Cloke and Ben Reid will have their work cut out against Eric Mackenzie and Darren Glass, but should have enough goal-scoring options all over the field to kick a winning score.

Collingwood by 30 points.

By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86