In 2013, collingwoodfc.com.au has again enlisted the help of David Natoli, aka DaVe86, who has shot to Internet fame for his in-depth Magpie tactical previews.

Since publishing his first report on Nick's Bulletin Board in early 2005, DaVe86 has become a weekly favourite among the passionate online Magpie Army receiving thousands of views for each article.

The articles are lengthy and have been published in their entirety as the club did not want to hinder DaVe86's creativity during the writing process.

The views expressed in DaVe86's previews are solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Collingwood Football Club.

Collingwood hosts Geelong at the MCG on Saturday night in a crucial game for its 2013 premiership aspirations.

Collingwood is fresh from a disappointing loss to Fremantle and has been terribly inconsistent in the last month. On the other hand, Geelong is the undefeated top of the ladder side and is in unbelievable form. Nathan Buckley was very critical of his side following last week’s loss and the challenge has been issued to his team to lift.

There are a number of issues facing Buckley this round. The Magpies have been unable to string four quarters together. The second and third quarters against Fremantle were very good as a 44 point deficit was turned into a slender lead. However the first and fourth quarters were extremely disappointing and Collingwood was totally unable to stem Fremantle’s momentum. Team defence also remains an issue, which is compounded by the absence of Alan Toovey and Heath Shaw this week.

Turning focus onto Geelong, and things couldn’t be more positive. As is the case every year, most experts had dismissed Geelong’s chances heading into the season. But this is one side that continues to reinvent itself and find new players to step up to fill the void of the ageing veterans. After this round, the Cats face Port Adelaide, Greater Western Sydney and Gold Coast in the following three rounds, so a win against Collingwood will likely mean that the Cats will be undefeated heading into their bye.

Recent History
Collingwood won both encounters against Geelong in 2012. However, Geelong won all three battles in 2011. In fact, these two clubs have developed a terrific rivalry over the last five seasons in particular and have had some thrilling matches.

The last time these two sides met was in round 16 last season where the Magpies were comfortable 31 point victors. Dayne Beams polled the three votes with 36 disposals and two goals, while Scott Pendlebury polled two votes (also picking up 36 disposals). Heath Shaw was resolute as always with 29 possessions and polled the one vote. Dane Swan was unlucky not to poll a vote after he had 40 disposals. James Kelly was Geelong’s best with 38 disposals and Steve Johnson was prolific with 36 disposals.

At the Selection Table
Both coaches have some important decisions at the selection table this round.

Starting with Collingwood, Buckley needs to find an answer for the Geelong small forwards. Heath Shaw is out through suspension which may pave the way for the return of Jordan Russell. Marley Williams is the other in contention to fill the back pocket role.

Much of the focus will be on the return of Luke Ball. After two solid outings at VFL level where he has averaged 30 possessions, Ball will add some much needed grunt and experience to the midfield. He will not have an easy return as he is likely to square off against the in-form Joel Selwood.

Others in contention are Alan Didak, who has also been solid at VFL level all season, and Jackson Paine who could be called upon to provide assistance to Travis Cloke.

Unfortunately Alex Fasolo has been ruled out for most of the season with a fractured foot which is yet another blow to the injury list. In better news, both Marty Clarke and Caolan Mooney have been cleared of serious injury and are listed as available on the injury list. Dayne Beams is still at least two weeks off returning, while Clinton Young is now four weeks away. Tyson Goldsack is still battling his hip concern and is an unlikely inclusion this round.

Turning focus onto the Cats, and most of the attention has been on James Kelly who lost his appeal at the tribunal. He has been ruled out for two rounds. Taylor Hunt has also been ruled out with a broken collarbone.

Kelly is a huge loss for the Cats as he has become such an influential midfielder. The loss of Hunt will also hurt as he has been in fantastic form and has been shutting down the best opposition midfielders. This particularly hurts against the star studded Collingwood midfield.

Paul Chapman is also unlikely to return from his hamstring injury, but Joel Corey may be available for selection if he passes a fitness test. Tom Hawkins is battling a bad back and will also face a fitness test but should be available. Josh Caddy will push for selection as will dual premiership player Josh Hunt. Also on the injury list and unavailable for selection are Travis Varcoe, Jared Rivers and Hamish McIntosh. It is a real credit to the Cats depth that they continue to win despite a large injury list.

Focus on Collingwood
The Magpies will need to put four quarters together on Saturday night if they are any chance to challenge the Cats. Geelong has made it a habit to come back from big deficits so far this season, so Collingwood cannot afford any lapses throughout the game.

Collingwood was yet again opened up by small forwards last round and needs to find an answer quickly. The midfield is not getting back quick enough to help and the forward line is not locking the ball in effectively.

Geelong is playing a very quick brand of football and is taking high risks. Therefore, Collingwood’s tackling pressure needs to lift. On a positive note, the Magpies were better around stoppages last week, but this was helped by the injury to Jonathon Griffin in the first quarter which left Jack Hannath and Zac Dawson alone to battle in the ruck against Darren Jolly.

Collingwood is slowly getting its best midfield back on the park. The return of Ball will be a huge help. Once Beams returns, the Magpies should improve its contested possession and clearance statistics. The return of Ball should also give Buckley more freedom to utilise Jarryd Blair and Steele Sidebottom in the forward line more where they can utilise their crumbing skills. Jamie Elliott has had a quiet few weeks in front of goal due in part with extra attention and plays more as a marking forward as opposed to a crumbing forward.

Brent Macaffer – After an impressive game in a tagging role against St Kilda’s Nick Dal Santo, Macaffer was sent into defence onto Michael Walters last week. It was a difficult first quarter for Macaffer and Buckley instantly switched him into the midfield to tag David Mundy. The move was very important as Mundy was dominating and Macaffer had an instant impact. Mundy was totally shut down, and Macaffer was able to pick up 16 possessions of his own. I feel he has become a very important player now that he has shown a capacity to tag. However, he will be truly tested this week as he is likely to play on either Selwood or Johnson who have both proved nearly untaggable so far this season.

Josh Thomas – After a frustrating start to his AFL career, Josh Thomas is finally enjoying an injury free run and is making the most of his opportunity. He was one of Collingwood’s best against Fremantle, picking up 28 possessions and proving very damaging around stoppages. His foot skills still require a bit of work but I was pleased with the fact he ran out the game strongly and was still prolific when the momentum swung Fremantle’s way. He needs to keep up his form if he is to retain his spot now that Ball is available and with Beams not far off. It will be a huge test against the battle hardened Geelong midfield.

Steele Sidebottom – It has been an up-and-down season for Sidebottom. With the injuries to the side, Steele has received more attention from opposition taggers. Nonetheless, he was very good last round with 33 possessions and was a huge reason why the Magpies made a comeback. He has shown a capacity to play forward where he can have a scoreboard impact, but also has the ability to play through the middle and the wing given his elite endurance. I think his form will become more consistent with the return of Ball.

Paul Seedsman – Seedsman has had an impressive fortnight and is really forging a position for himself in the Magpies defence. He is effective when he has the ball in his hands. He also has great speed and skills. I have also been impressed with his ability to defend an opponent where necessary. To take his game to the next level, he now needs to win a bit more of the ball. He has had 19 possessions and 17 possessions in the past fortnight so it would be good if he could start winning in excess of 20.

Focus on Geelong
The Cats continue to find multiple avenues to goal and it is very difficult to stop them from scoring. It is scary to think that Hawkins and Jamies Podsiadly have not been in their best form. In fact, neither Hawkins nor Podsiadly kicked a goal last round, yet the Cats still had 11 individual goal-kickers.

Geelong is not the best clearance or contested football side in the AFL, but generates so much run from its defence. The creativity and willingness to take risks has proven impossible to defend. The self-belief in the side is also at an all-time high.

Most impressive has been the ability to find young players who had settled into the side as if they were 100 game players. Steven Motlop, George Horlin-Smith, Mitch Duncan, Mark Blicavs, Allen Christensen, Jackson Thurlow, Billie Smedts, Cameron Guthrie and Jordan Schroder are all very young players, but have added so much enthusiasm to the team.

Matthew Stokes – With a bit of a gap in the middle, Stokes has stepped up and become an influential midfielder this season. He is averaging 26 disposals but has still been able to kick eight goals. To highlight his form, he had 24 disposals and three goals last round against the red hot Essendon. He has always been a thorn in Collingwood’s side over the years and will yet again prove a handful on Saturday night considering the absence of a number of key Magpie defenders.

Steven Motlop – Motlop will be licking his lips this round after watching Walters tear Collingwood apart last round. Motlop is the exact player that the Magpies have been struggling to deal with and it is difficult finding a suitable match-up for him. The Magpies may be forced to throw Harry O’Brien into defence to play on him. Motlop is coming off a 28 possession game and he could have kicked four or five goals if he kicked accurately. He has kicked 11 goals so far this season and is averaging just under 20 disposals a game. He has really developed into one of the premier small forwards in the competition.

Steve Johnson – The Geelong champion just seems to get better with age and is in incredible form so far this year. He had a career high 36 disposals against Essendon last round and is averaging 29 disposals so far in 2013. He is playing as a pure midfielder which means he hasn’t kicked as many goals as we would typically expect. His creativity through the middle has been a handful for all sides and I would like to see Macaffer get the tagging job on Saturday night.

Harry Taylor – The star centre half back has become the most versatile player in the AFL this season, showing an ability to push forward and kick goals. He has kicked nine goals so far this season, and is yet to be beaten by an opposition forward. It will be interesting to see if Taylor is used on Travis Cloke, or whether Geelong opts to use Tom Lonergan in this role to allow Taylor the freedom to float up forward. It may be an idea for Collingwood to bring an extra tall like Jackson Paine into the side to ensure Taylor is kept accountable. But that said, Taylor is such a strong mark and is equally as damaging as a forward as he is a defender.

The Wrap Up
Based on recent form the Cats deserve to be raging favourites. Nonetheless, Collingwood is never a side to be underestimated when its backs are against the wall. The Magpies also have a good recent record against Geelong and the Cats are also missing some key players.

If the Magpies are to challenge the ladder leaders on Saturday, they need to string four quarters together. Collingwood needs to tackle harder and panic less with the ball in hand. With Ball returning, Collingwood has the midfield depth to worry Geelong. On the other hand, the Cats have the ball movement, forward line and game plan to worry the Magpies.

I feel that Collingwood needs to focus on turnovers and pressure. Geelong will take risks and keep the ball in motion. This means that Collingwood will have the opportunity to force turnovers and needs to make the most of its opportunities. Goal kicking has been an issue in recent weeks and many players have been missing important shots on goal. Travis Cloke needs to get his radar back after kicking 0.4 last week as the team will need a big game from him

I am tipping a cracking game and I think the Pies will be fired up following their disappointing result against Fremantle. Geelong is going to prove a very difficult opponent though.

By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86