Since publishing his first report on Nick's Bulletin Board in early 2005, DaVe86 has become a weekly favourite among the passionate online Magpie Army receiving thousands of views for each article.
The articles are lengthy and have been published in their entirety as the club did not want to hinder DaVe86's creativity during the writing process.
The views expressed in DaVe86's previews are solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Collingwood Football Club.
The home and away season has drawn to a close and the finals series in now upon us. This promises to be one of the most even Septembers we have had in a long time, with every side in the top eight capable of beating anyone on their day.
The Magpies finished their home and away campaign with a 32-point victory against the Bombers. The win ensured Collingwood secured its fourth consecutive top four finish and therefore the all-important double chance. However, fourth place means the Magpies have to face the premiership favourites Hawthorn in the Qualifying Final on Friday night. The Hawks have been in red-hot form and almost look invincible. With close to a full list to choose from, Hawthorn will be overwhelming favourites in the eyes of many.
A near capacity crowd will be in attendance at the MCG on Friday night to watch the opening finals match. The winner will earn a crucial week off and automatically qualify for the Preliminary Final. The loser will be forced to play the winner of the West Coast and North Melbourne match at the MCG next week in a sudden death final. The stakes are undoubtedly high. The loser of this match will find it very difficult to make the Grand Final.
Hawthorn has beaten Collingwood on both occasions in 2012 and in general has an impressive record over the Magpies throughout the past five years. Nonetheless, the wounds will still be fresh from the dramatic Preliminary Final last year where Collingwood came from behind to snatch a three-point victory and secure a place in the 2011 Grand Final.
At the Selection Table
Nathan Buckley has some big decisions to make at the selection table this week. Much of the focus will be on how Collingwood structures its forward and ruck division. After Chris Dawes was omitted last week, the Magpies used first-year big man Jackson Paine as the second key forward and Nick Maxwell as the backup ruck. Although both fought admirably, the situation was far from ideal and Maxwell had to contend with bigger bodied opponents.
Much of the focus will be on whether or not Collingwood recalls Chris Dawes, who was unable to gain any match fitness as the VFL team’s season is over. But a week off may have freshened up Dawes and his experience and big body could be essential to help keep the Hawthorn defence accountable and also assist in the ruck against Jarryd Roughead and David Hale.
I believe Collingwood’s other option if Dawes is not selected is to give Cameron Wood a chance at playing the number one ruck role, with Darren Jolly spending more time as a forward. Jolly is a strong mark and a big presence, and Hawthorn has an undersized defence. Again, it would be a risk, as Wood has only played two senior games since round 10. However, considering the Hawks’ lack of height in both the forward line and ruck division, it could be an opportunity to play two genuine ruckmen and try and stretch the Hawks.
Jarryd Blair is in the mix for a recall after he missed last week with a groin injury, and Tyson Goldsack, who was subbed off last week with an ankle injury, will face a fitness test to hold onto his spot.
Turning the focus onto Hawthorn, and all eyes will be on the replacement for Brent Guerra who tore his hamstring against West Coast in round 23. Guerra is facing an uphill battle to be available again this year, and the Hawks will definitely miss his precision kicking from defence. The most likely to replace Guerra is Xavier Ellis who is a proven finals performer and found some form late in the year after a long run with injuries.
Another option for Hawthorn may be Kyle Cheney who plays a similar back pocket role. Shane Savage is another who may come into calculations.
Cyril Rioli played as the substitute last week in his return game from a shoulder injury, and is likely to play a full game this week. Rioli has a fantastic record against Collingwood and should be primed for a huge game. Lance Franklin has now played two matches since injuring his hamstring and is another who has a dominant record against Collingwood, and was a huge factor in the Preliminary Final last year.
Hawthorn is a settled position and has its structure solidified, but the unpredictability of Collingwood’s forward line-up could be an asset.
Analysis and Match-Ups
The Collingwood Forward Line
As alluded to above, the Collingwood forward line has been a real concern over the past month. The return of Andrew Krakouer last week came at the perfect time for Collingwood. His precision kicking is a real asset and makes the Magpies look far more dangerous. It is his second game back, however, and it will be a big ask for him to perform on the big stage. The return of Alan Didak has also added a bit of class. Travis Cloke returned to form last week with five goals, and will be the key for the Magpies in this year’s finals series.
Hawthorn’s defensive set-up is a real key to its game.
So much run is generated from defence, and players like Grant Birchall and Matt Suckling can be devastating with their precision disposal and run. Collingwood needs to be better with its forward pressure, and I feel it needs to lock down on Suckling in particular. Josh Gibson is the master of peeling off his opponent to spoil and must be made accountable.
If Collingwood elects to recall Dawes, he will be vital at drawing Gibson away from Cloke. Gibson is smart and will not be dragged too wide of the play. Therefore, whoever is matched up on Gibson needs to find the footy and have a scoreboard impact.
Travis Cloke v Ryan Schoenmakers - I’m tipping that Hawks coach Alistair Clarkson will probably go with this match-up, with Gibson peeling off his man to offer assistance. Schoenmakers has improved out of sight this year and has become much stronger body on body. Cloke is the key to the game for Collingwood after he returned to form last week. He has had the better of recent encounters against Schoenmakers, however the young Hawk has improved in leaps and bounds this year and has been impressive against the Magpies on both occasions this year.
Sharrod Wellingham v Matthew Suckling - In order to stop Hawthorn, the Magpies need to close down Suckling and Birchall. I suggest that Wellingham be used in this role as he has played forward all year and also has a history of performing tagging jobs. Wellingham is also a good overhead mark and can be dangerous in front of goals and if he can have an influence inside 50 it will help limit the dangerous Hawks rebounders.
X Factor - Alex Fasolo
Fasolo has been a bright spark in a disappointing month for Collingwood. He is winning more of the football and has been the only forward consistently kicking goals. Against Essendon, he had 22 disposals, kicked two goals and also took 12 marks. Importantly, he operated at a 100 per cent disposal efficiency rate. He is in fine form and is now able to be used higher up the ground if necessary. The Magpies need an even spread of goal-kickers, so Fasolo needs to kick a few goals to ease the burden on Cloke. He might find himself up against Ben Stratton who is another Hawk defender who is good at peeling off and playing the third man up in a marking contest.
The Midfield
As is always the case, this game will be heavily decided by the midfield battle. Collingwood on paper has the best midfield in the league, and while the key players are winning enough of the football, their impact has not been as strong in recent weeks, although there were some positive signs last week against Essendon.
Hawthorn, on the other hand, appears to have its balance right. Sam Mitchell continues to dominate around stoppages, and is lethal on both sides of his body. Hale and Roughead are an improved ruck combination, while Brad Sewell is in career best form. Luke Hodge has also added class to the midfield and Liam Shiels has turned himself into a quality run-with player. The Hawks also have the luxury of using exciting players like Rioli, Shaun Burgoyne and Isaac Smith through the middle to open the game right up.
Darren Jolly v David Hale - This battle will be huge. Depending on selection, Jolly may be forced to shoulder the majority of the ruck burden as he did last week, and Hale will work in combination with Roughead to wear down the veteran Magpie. But Jolly will be the most accomplished ruckman on the field and needs to gain the ascendency if Collingwood is to stand any chance. Jolly has the big task of ensuring his teammates get first use of the football. Both Jolly and Hale like to push forward and kick goals, so accountability will be vital.
Dayne Beams v Liam Shiels - I think Clarkson will elect to tag the dangerous and in form Dayne Beams. It will be a big call whether to use Shiels on Dane Swan, however it has been Beams who has been the most damaging Magpie of late and is Collingwood’s best clearance player. If the Hawls can shut Beams down, it will add greater responsibility to the likes of Swan, Scott Pendlebury and Dale Thomas. Clarkson may also elect to use Shiels on Dale Thomas and use Sewell head to head against Beams.
Sam Mitchell v Jarryd Blair - I feel Collingwood has to look to clamp down on the Hawthorn champion around the stoppages. Mitchell is incredible in close and his quick hands are always the starting point of many forward thrusts. Blair is a tough nut and may be given the task.
Brad Sewell v Scott Pendlebury - Sewell has gone back to some defensive roles this year and has done a terrific job whilst still winning a lot of the football. As previously mentioned, he may get the job on Beams, or he will be asked to lock down on Scott Pendlebury. The star Magpie is a big game player and should lift for the occasion.
X Factor - Dane Swan
Swan was a class above last week with 42 disposals in a best on ground performance. Hawthorn may elect to lock down on him, but this will only free up other Magpie midfielders. Collingwood has a deep midfield, and Swan could prove the difference if he fires. After a recent two week spell, Swan will be fresh and ready for a big finals series.
X Factor - Clinton Young
Young has returned to some form this year and is one of the most damaging wingmen going around. He has a booming left boot and breaks the lines. If the Hawks win the contested footy, it is players like Young that can tear their opponent to shreds. It will be important to prevent Hawthorn’s outside run of which Young is a key source.
The Hawthorn Forward Line
Both sides are fairly even on paper, but there is no doubt that Hawthorn has some real firepower up forward and some serious game-breakers. The addition of Jack Gunston to the forward line this year has provided great balance, and it is no longer reliant on Franklin kicking big bags of goals to win. In fact, the Hawks played some of their best football this year while Franklin was out injured. Players like Luke Breust, Paul Puopolo and Brendan Whitecross have all played great roles up forward kicking goals and putting on enormous pressure. The Hawks possess so many avenues to goal and typically get great delivery from the midfield.
For the Magpies, the return of Chris Tarrant to the backline has helped stabilise the side and Ben Johnson’s return has already generated more run. At its best, Collingwood’s backline is still the most solid on paper in the AFL. If Collingwood can keep the game tight, the Magpies defence will be assisted in trying to shut down such a potent Hawthorn attack.
Lance Franklin v Chris Tarrant - I think Buckley will turn to his veteran Chris Tarrant to take the Franklin match-up. As strong as Franklin is, he is still most dangerous when the ball goes to ground. Tarrant has always played well on Franklin and limited his output. Buddy has only played two matches since his hamstring injury yet was still able to turn the game on its head with four first half goals last week against West Coast. What’s more, he can win a game off his boot in the blink of an eye. Despite Tarrant doing such a magnificent job in the Preliminary Final last year, Franklin still nearly won his team the game in the dying minutes with a freaky goal.
Nathan Brown v Jarryd Roughead - The bigger bodied Brown is the one I feel is likely to take the Roughead match-up. Roughead has become such an important player to his side because he assists in the ruck and also in defence when required. He also plays the all-important buffer role for Franklin and has been reliable in front of goal this year.
Ben Reid v Jack Gunston - Gunston showed what a talented player he is and really emerged as a player during Buddy Franklin’s absence. When he last faced Collingwood, he kicked three goals and had 21 disposals. He has kicked 33 goals so far this year and the Magpies need to be cautious of him.
Cyril Rioli v Alan Toovey - Toovey recently did an impressive job on Jetta and is the tightest checking defender the Magpies have. Rioli may be lacking a bit of match fitness but is another Hawk who can turn a game with very few disposals and in a short period of time. Even if Toovey gets the better of this match-up, he can’t lose his concentration for even a second or Rioli will create magic.
Player focus - Brendon Whitecross
Whitecross has flown under the radar this year but has become a very important component of the Hawthorn side. He is a chance to play a defensive role on one of Collingwood’s key playmakers, such as Heath Shaw, who looms as one of Collingwood’s most important players on Friday night.
The Wrap Up
The one factor which I have not yet considered is the Melbourne weather on Friday night. At the moment, the forecast is for a cold and wet 14 degrees. I think this could play into Collingwood’s favour as it will take Hawthorn’s precise foot skills out of the game. That said, Hawthorn is still a good wet weather side and can be very clean in tough conditions.
When analysing the two sides, I think Collingwood’s midfield goes deeper, but lacks the defensive type of players the Hawks have. If the Magpies win the clearances and the hard ball, they have so much talent through the middle and they can get confidence very quickly. Hawthorn has superior foot skills and is currently playing with more flair. It will love playing on a wide MCG and has the weapons up forward to put the game away very quickly.
Collingwood needs to start well because Hawthorn has been a terrific second half side. Despite its up and down form of late, Collingwood is a very experienced finals side and has the self-belief to beat anyone on its day.
I think the Magpies can cause an upset on Friday night. Bring on Finals.
By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86
