In 2016, David Natoli, aka DaVe86, returns to Collingwood Media to file his famous, in-depth tactical match previews.

Since publishing his first report on Nick's Bulletin Board in early 2005, DaVe86 has become a weekly favourite among the passionate online Magpie Army receiving thousands of views for each article.

The articles are lengthy and are published in their entirety as the club does not want to hinder DaVe86's creativity during the writing process.

The views expressed in DaVe86's previews are solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Collingwood Football Club.

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UPDATE: Thursday 12.30pm - Three Richmond starters have been ruled out of Friday night's clash at the MCG.

Tigers coach Damien Hardwick confirmed on Thursday morning that Brett Deledio and Ivan Maric will remain on the sidelines after missing round one, while Shane Edwards has also been ruled out.

""The problem is when he's kicking, he's still got some acute pain so we've just got to make sure we don't push him and when he comes back he's right," Hardwick said of Deledio. 

The exclusions from Richmond's 22 mean both sides will be below full strength when they meet at the MCG. Continue to read the preview below for all the pre-game forecasts on how the match may play out.

DaVe86's Ultimate Preview

The 2016 Home and Away season is well and truly underway. My second preview for the year focusses on the Friday night blockbuster between Collingwood and Richmond at the MCG.


For the Magpies, round one did not provide the start of the season we were all hoping for. An 80-point thumping at the hands of the Sydney Swans was compounded by a very serious ankle injury to Dane Swan and a two week suspension to Steele Sidebottom. Sidebottom will return in a fortnight, however Swan looks set to miss the majority of the season.

It was a disappointing night, and was completely unexpected after such a strong pre-season. Credit must be given to the Swans for the way they played, but Nathan Buckley summed up the result in his weekly press conference when he stated it was simply a different Collingwood side which took the field last Saturday night.

While it is easy to write the Magpies off after such a big loss, the ultimate truth is that it was only round one, and the Magpies can quickly turn the tide and get back to a winning record. I tend to reserve my judgement on a side after a big loss, as I think the way a team responds the following week gives a better insight. If Collingwood puts in another poor performance, then there might be cause for concern. However, I’m expecting a fired up Collingwood outfit that will be out to silence a lot of critics.

Turning attention to Richmond, and there would have no doubt been a massive sigh of relief after the final siren last week. No one expected Carlton to get as close as it did, and at three quarter time an upset was brewing.

Nonetheless, The Tigers dug deep and were able to click into gear in the last quarter to snatch the victory. Richmond will need to improve dramatically on that performance if it is to push for a top-four berth this season, however it is a sign of a maturing club to win a pressure game where the opposition was on top for large parts of the night.

Having said that, the Tigers cannot rest on their laurels and will need to address a number of key areas if they are going to compete against the best sides in the competition. Richmond will fancy itself this week and will look to start the game really well.  A win will mean the Tigers are 2-0 to start the season with a number of key players still to return. After disappointing starts in the previous two seasons, it’s a huge opportunity for them to get a head start and really settle into the season.

Recent History

Up until last season, Collingwood have had the wood over Richmond. This all changed in 2015, with the Tigers winning both encounters. The last time these sides met was in round 21 where the Tigers were emphatic 91-point winners. I don’t read a lot into the result as Collingwood’s finals hopes were already dashed, whereas Richmond still had a lot to play for. Nonetheless, it will have given the Tigers a lot of confidence.

Tyrone Vickery was the standout performer, booting six goals and polling three Brownlow votes. Brandon Ellis had the ball on a string with 31 disposals and 10 marks and polled the two votes. Dustin Martin was the third standout for the Tigers with 32 disposals and 11 marks and a goal.

The other meeting between the two sides was in round seven, which was an absolute thriller, with the Tigers holding on by five points. The win was important for Richmond as it was struggling for form at the time. Following this match, the Tigers were able to really kick start their year. Trent Cotchin and Brett Deledio were the standouts for Richmond, with 32 and 30 disposals respectively, whilst Dane Swan was at his absolute best with 32 disposals and two goals. Travis Cloke also booted three majors.

At the Selection Table

Whilst much of the emphasis will be on Collingwood’s injury list this week, the truth is that both sides will be quite undermanned.

The Magpies will have to make at least two forced changes with Swan injured and Sidebottom suspended. Jarrod Witts will also likely miss after he split the webbing in his hand, which should forge the way for Brodie Grundy to return to the side. Nathan Brown, Marley Williams and Alex Fasolo will all face fitness tests but Neil Balme has stated during the week that they are expected to play.

In positive news, Ben Reid, Jeremy Howe and Tyson Goldsack all got through a VFL practice match last week and will put their hands up for selection. Reid in particular should help to sure up the defence, while Howe could replace Swan up forward. The question will just be whether Howe has done enough work to be fit for senior selection. Others pushing for selection include Tom Phillips who has really impressed in his first season at the club and James Aish who booted three goals in the VFL game. Jonathan Marsh and Alan Toovey are also available for selection and look handy replacements if required. Travis Varcoe should come into contention next week as he recovers from his hamstring injury.



Brodie Grundy appears likely to take the spot of Jarrod Witts who split the webbing in his hand during the Magpies round one loss.

At Tigerland, Shane Edwards has been ruled out after breaking his hand in round one. This should open a spot for Ben Lennon as a like-for-like replacement. Deledio is also likely to miss another week, while Ivan Maric will also put his hand up for selection. Shaun Grigg is another Tiger who should be available for selection.

Focus on Collingwood

Defensively the Magpies were split apart against the Swans and also struggled to clear the ball from the backline. Up forward, Collingwood selected three key talls and a ruckman, yet in combination they took six marks between them and could only manage one goal. Buckley is likely to stick with this structure, but it will need to deliver much more than last week.

However, for all these issues, the biggest problem ultimately lay in the midfield. Sydney had just under 100 more possessions, 31 more contested possessions, 31 more inside 50’s and 76 more uncontested possessions. It’s hard to be critical of a backline under siege, and a forward line getting such limited supply. The contested possession count was the particularly alarming stat as Collingwood has always prided itself in this area. In fact, it was ranked second in 2015 for contested possession.

Therefore, I think Buckley will keep his message quite simple this week. He’ll instruct his midfielders to put their noses over the ball and win the hard stuff. If the midfielders can win at the coal face, then it will give the tall targets up forward a chance to get in the game, and also protect the defence.

Player Focus – Collingwood

Adam Treloar – The new recruit was probably the one positive the Magpies took out of last week’s loss. He accumulated 34 disposals and booted his first goal for the club. Treloar’s ability to break the line and win his own footy makes him such an asset. I wasn’t sure how he would go in his first game considering he had a limited pre-season, but he showed no signs of fatigue and ran the game out very well. Treloar was very heavily targeted by Richmond in last year’s trade period, so it is an opportunity for him to show exactly what the Tigers are missing. Expect Richmond to pay him very close attention.

Travis Cloke – Cloke has been under fire this week after he failed to register a possession in the first half last week. He was not the only player to struggle, but he’s a leader of the club and his lack of form was something addressed publically by Nathan Buckley during the week. Nonetheless, Richmond has always been one of Cloke’s favourite sides to play, and he has a terrific record against them. He’ll be viewing this week as a real opportunity to boot a few goals, but he’ll face a difficult opponent in Alex Rance.

Jackson Ramsay – Ramsay had just about cemented his position in defence in 2015 before injury struck. He looks to have re-solidified his spot after a strong pre-season. The Magpies like the ball in his hands because he is a reliable user and also is willing to take the game on. He was one of the few players who could hold his head up after last week, with 19 disposals and a good efficiency rate.

Focus on Richmond

Going into last week’s game, the biggest question mark on Richmond was its ability to win without Deledio. The Tigers have only won two games in recent times when Deledio has been injured, and at three-quarter time it seemed as if this curse was going to continue. Thankfully for the Tigers, a last quarter comeback saved the day. With Deledio most likely out again this week, Richmond will need a much more even contribution from its midfielders.

Despite the win, a number of areas need addressing. Carlton dominated most statistics, winning 44 more disposals, having 11 more inside 50’s, 29 more marks and 51 more uncontested possessions. The Blues also took six more marks inside 50’s than the Tigers. Based on these statistics, Richmond were quite lucky to scrape away with a win, and it was perhaps Carlton’s lack of firepower up forward which cost the Blues the win.

Player Focus – Richmond

Alex Rance – The All-Australian backman was superb last week and was a major reason the Tigers were able to hold on to win. Rance has historically struggled on Travis Cloke, and this match-up could be a decisive one. I think Cloke will look to lead high up the field to try and drag Rance with him. However the Tigers defender is such a weapon as he takes intercept marks and turns defence into offence.

Sam Lloyd – Lloyd was the unexpected last quarter hero in round one, kicking two of the most amazing goals to really kick-start the Tigers’ comeback. Richmond’s criticism in recent years has been a lack of quality small forwards to compliment the likes of Jack Riewoldt, so Lloyd has a real opportunity to cement this spot. He is a quality ball-user and knows where the goals are, so the Magpies will need to be cautious of him this week.

Trent Cotchin – The Tigers skipper took a half to get going last week and only finished with 21 disposals. Collingwood has had success in the past tagging Cotchin with Brent Macaffer, but Levi Greenwood is also available to take this match-up. It is not like Cotchin to play quiet games back-to-back, so expect the Tigers skipper to lead from the front this week.

The Wrap Up

Although it is early stages of the year, this result is really important for both to gain momentum at the beginning of the season. Collingwood needs a win to get over all the negativity surrounding the side right now. It’s an opportunity to put last week into the past and get the season back on track. On the other hand, Richmond doesn’t want to start the season slowly like it has in recent years, and the opportunity to win the first two games despite some significant injuries would be a huge boost.

The loss of Sidebottom and Swan is going to be very difficult for the Magpies to cover. However, it is an opportunity to display the depth which the club has been bragging about all summer. There is enough quality in the midfield to win this game, but it’s going to require a much bigger effort than was shown last week.

By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86