In 2017, David Natoli, aka DaVe86, returns to Collingwood Media to file his famous, in-depth tactical match previews.

Since publishing his first report on Nick's Bulletin Board in early 2005, DaVe86 has become a weekly favourite among the passionate online Magpie Army receiving thousands of views for each article.

The articles are lengthy and have been published in their entirety as the club did not want to hinder DaVe86's creativity during the writing process.

The views expressed in DaVe86's previews are solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Collingwood Football Club.

My round 15 preview takes a look at the Collingwood and Hawthorn clash at the MCG this Sunday afternoon.

Both sides sit on five wins, and are two games out of the top eight. In many ways, this is a huge moment for both these sides. Finals will be a tricky proposition for the loser, whereas the winner will still be in the hunt.

Collingwood had its worst loss of the season against Port Adelaide last week, with the Power proving simply too strong and winning by a comfortable 31 points. In a season where the Magpies have been competitive in all their matches, this was the first game where the margin blew out. It was a disappointing result for the Magpies given their recent form had been quite solid and many thought a win was possible.

On the other hand, Hawthorn shocked the football world with a 14-point victory against the top of the ladder Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval. Not many saw this win coming, and it was a stark reminder that the Hawks are not a team to be written off. The Hawks rekindled their kicking game, which has been a hallmark of their success in recent years. They also managed to totally shut down Adelaide’s run. The win will give the Hawks plenty of confidence, and a 10-day break between matches means they will be fresh as well.

Recent History
It was only six weeks ago since these sides last met in what was a memorable come from behind victory for the Magpies.

After trailing by 43 points in the second quarter, the Magpies eventually overran the Hawks to the tune of 18 points. Led by skipper Scott Pendlebury with 36 disposals, and star midfielder Adam Treloar with 34 disposals, the Magpies midfield was too much for the Hawks to contain.

For the Hawks, Tom Mitchell had a whopping 50 disposals, but largely played a lone hand.

It was the first time that the Magpies had beaten the Hawks since 2011, and the first time Nathan Buckley has coached a victory against Hawthorn. The Magpies will be hoping the monkey is off the back now, and there is a real opportunity to beat the Hawks twice in the space of two months.

At the Selection Table
Collingwood
B: Jeremy Howe, Lynden Dunn, Tom Langdon
HB: Jack Crisp, Tyson Goldsack, Brayden Maynard
C: Steele Sidebottom, Scott Pendlebury, Tom Phillips
HF: Jordan De Goey, Darcy Moore, Will Hoskin-Elliott
F: Jamie Elliott, Mason Cox, Alex Fasolo
Foll: Brodie Grundy, Taylor Adams, Adams Treloar
Int (from): Matthew Scharenberg, Callum Brown, Levi Greenwood, Ben Reid, Josh Thomas, Tim Broomhead, Jackson Ramsay

IN: Mason Cox, Jamie Elliott, Jackson Ramsay, Matthew Scharenberg, Josh Thomas
OUT: James Aish, Ben Crocker (omitted)

Hawthorn
B: Blake Hardwick, Kaiden Brand, Ben Stratton
HB: Ryan Burton, Grant Birchall, Luke Hodge
C: Isaac Smith, Tom Mitchell, Billy Hartung
HF: Luke Breust, Luke Gunston, Liam Shiels
F: Tim O’Brien, Jarryd Roughead, Paul Puopolo
Foll: Ben McEvoy, Shaun Burgoyne, Will Langford
Int (from): Ricky Henderson, Taylor Duryea, James Sicily, Ryan Schoenmakers, Dallas Willsmore, Daniel Howe, Kurt Heatherley

IN: Kurt Heatherley, Ben Stratton, Dallas Willsmore

Focus on Collingwood
It was a disappointing result for Collingwood against Port Adelaide last weekend. Statistically, the Magpies had 78 more disposals than Port Adelaide, more contested possession, more uncontested possession, more marks, similar clearances and similar inside 50s.

But Collingwood’s efficiency inside 50 was a very low 40 per cent, while Port Adelaide operated at an impressive 64 per cent. Despite what the statistics say, Port Adelaide were a much classier and harder team at the ball. The Power were able to out-muscle the Magpies and expose their defence.

With a smaller forward line, the Magpies rely on good ball movement. Unfortunately, Port Adelaide was able to stunt Collingwood’s run and carry, which meant the Magpies began bombing it long to Port Adelaide’s well-organized defence. The Power were able to pick off these kicks with ease, especially since the Magpies didn’t really possess a tall that was capable of competing in the air other than Darcy Moore.

In the last quarter, Nathan Buckley swung Ben Reid forward, and put Jordan De Goey on the ball. I thought this had a positive impact and the Magpies were able to win the last quarter. It will be interesting to see whether the Magpies carry this structure into this week’s game, particularly considering Hawthorn has an undermanned defence.

Player Focus – Collingwood
Scott Pendlebury – The skipper celebrates his 250th game on the weekend, and deserves all the plaudits he will receive. He is currently ranked second on the official AFL player rankings, and is playing yet another extremely consistent year. It’s hard to remember too many bad games throughout Pendlebury’s career, and his leadership has been terrific throughout a difficult season. The Magpies would love to celebrate Pendlebury’s 250th with a big win in front of a big crowd.

Focus on Hawthorn
Currently sitting in 16th spot, the Hawks have undoubtedly had a difficult year. After so many years of dominance, it has been unusual to see this mighty Hawthorn side slip so far down the ladder.

But there have been many occasions this year where the Hawks have been totally written off, yet caused a stunning upset. In fact, it’s happened twice in the last month against Sydney at the SCG and Adelaide at Adelaide Oval. There is still a lot of pride in this group, and I have no doubt that Hawks would like to seek revenge for the loss to the Magpies in round nine.

Although Adelaide is the top of the ladder side, Collingwood is quite a different challenge for the Hawks this week. Adelaide has a shallower midfield, and the Hawks were able to get on top in this area. On the other hand, Collingwood has a very deep and talented midfield, which was simply too much for the Hawks to contain only six weeks ago.

For the Hawks to win this game, they will need to dominate possession and get their kicking game going. In the opening half of the round nine game, the Magpies simply weren’t able to stop the Hawks from hitting targets and possessing the football. But once the Collingwood midfield got going, the Hawks had no answer.

The Hawks are clearly undermanned in defence, however have unearthed some real talent this year. Ryan Burton has been a revelation and looks set for a huge career. His two goals last week off half back were massive. Blake Hardwick has also been solid, while James Sicily has filled a hole in defence nicely. Sicily had 25 disposals and 10 marks last week.

Player Focus – Hawthorn
Luke Hodge – Although the young Hawthorn defence deserves huge credit for the terrific performance last week, there is no doubt that the glue that held the team together was Hodge. His leadership for his young team-mates was unmeasurable, and he almost played as an on-field coach. He didn’t have a huge statistical game, but it was an inspirational one, and he was arguably Hawthorn’s most important player. The Magpies will need to put some attention into Hodge this week because he can’t be allowed to patrol half back without an opponent.

The Wrap Up
Both sides already face an uphill battle to make finals, and a loss this week really damages any remaining hopes. Collingwood will be buoyed by its victory against Hawthorn in round nine, but also needs to be mindful of the fact that the Hawks were able to get 43 points ahead very quickly. It just shows that if the Magpies don’t start well, that the Hawks can cause a lot of trouble. Collingwood’s starts have been a concern all year, so can’t afford another repeat of round nine.

Overall, I think Collingwood’s midfield possesses too much run for the Hawks to contain. With Elliott returning, there is more firepower in the Collingwood forward line. The Magpies played slowly last week and just couldn’t get their running game going. The directive this week will be to move the ball quickly and take the game on. If the Magpies do that, then the Hawks will struggle to keep up.

On the other hand, if the Hawks can play the game on their terms, then there is still the talent up forward to kick a winning score.

There’s a fair bit on the line, and this is really a mini-final for both sides. The start is going to be crucial.

By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86