Since publishing his first report on Nick's Bulletin Board in early 2005, DaVe86 has become a weekly favourite among the passionate online Magpie Army receiving thousands of views for each article.
The articles are lengthy and have been published in their entirety as the club did not want to hinder DaVe86's creativity during the writing process.
The views expressed in DaVe86's previews are solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Collingwood Football Club.
The biggest match of round 20 is undoubtedly the clash between Collingwood and Sydney this Saturday night at ANZ Stadium, considering the sides are ranked sixth and second on the ladder respectively.
Both sides had terrific wins last round and look to be building into their best form in the run home to finals. The Swans in particular are looking very strong and have won their previous six games.
Sydney will be looking to cement its top four position and also hold onto second spot considering the prize is a home Qualifying Final. Collingwood, on the other hand, is still an outside chance to make the top four, but can still mathematically drop out of the top eight with a difficult run home. Therefore, the Magpies need one more win to cement a top eight position.
The Magpies were terrific last week against Essendon, in what was the side’s most complete four-quarter performance all season. A 79-point victory against a quality side such as Essendon was a massive result and has sent a message to the rest of the competition that the Magpies are still a force to be reckoned with.
Sydney on the other hand took four quarters to overcome a determined Western Bulldogs, but showed the football world how difficult it is to beat. Even with the Bulldogs playing their best football, Sydney was always able to remain in control of the game and had too many match-winners across the board. In my opinion, the Swans still deserve to be Premiership favourites considering the other sides in the top eight all still have question marks.
Playing Sydney has been described as receiving an audit. Every weakness will be exposed and it is a true indication on all the areas that need improvement to be a top four side. This was very much the case for the Magpies in round nine when these sides last met.
Sydney has the ability to grind its opponent into the ground. It ranks first in contested disposals, clearances and tackles. The hunger is still there despite the premiership in 2012. This will test Collingwood as it is the number one uncontested disposal side in the competition. If the Magpies cannot match the Swans in the clinches, then this uncontested style of football will struggle. It is also an indication that the Magpies need to be a bit more direct as over-possessing plays into Sydney’s hand by allowing defenders to crowd the forward line and also providing turn-over opportunities.
Recent History
Sydney has well and truly broken the Collingwood curse. After 11 consecutive losses, Sydney finally broke through last year in the Preliminary Final at ANZ Stadium, beating the Magpies by 26 points.
When these sides last met in round nine earlier this year, the Swans completely outran Collingwood. John Longmire’s men gave the Magpies a lesson in work rate, running harder offensively and defensively. Some of Collingwood’s key playmakers were well held, with Dane Swan in particular could only manage 23 disposals for the game. Travis Cloke tried his hardest with three goals, while Luke Ball was serviceable with 28 disposals and nine tackles.
The Swans, however, had match-winners all over the park. Hannebery was dominant with 31 disposals and two goals and Adam Goodes was at his absolute best with 30 disposals and three goals. Nick Malceski and Jarrad McVeigh also did as they pleased off half back with 30 disposals each. Sydney was also dominant in the ruck, with Mike Pyke also chipping in with two goals.
At the Selection Table
The biggest issue for Nathan Buckley is how to structure his ruck division. Brodie Grundy has done a terrific job in his first two games, taking on very experienced ruckman and holding his own. Buckley was very quick to praise his game. However, the Magpies were still well beaten for hitouts and clearances despite the 79-point victory.
Darren Jolly, Ben Hudson and Jarrod Witts are all available, but Jolly pulled up sore after his VFL hitout last week and may be no automatic inclusion. The temptation will be to bring in either Hudson or Witts to play support to Grundy, however this may make the side too top heavy with Lachlan Keeffe and Quinten Lynch both in the squad as well.
I think the ruck combination looked best with Lynch as the back-up option. Therefore it is likely Grundy will hold his position. It would be a huge test against Shane Mumford and Mike Pyke.
In other selection news, Alan Didak and Paul Seedsman were both very impressive in the VFL, while Andrew Krakouer is also trying hard to earn senior recall. Dale Thomas is back into full training, but he will not play in the VFL this week. He is a chance to return in the VFL in the following weeks and still has hope of making it back for the finals.
Turning the focus onto the Swans, and John Longmire is unlikely to make many changes after a month of very solid football. The Swans are still without a number of key players including Adam Goodes, Lewis Jetta and Sam Reid. All are unlikely to return before finals, which means Sydney will have to continue to rely on a number of younger players who have filled the void remarkably. Alex Johnson will also miss the rest of the season.
Tony Armstrong and Mitch Morton are two Swans playing well in the reserves. Morton kicked six goals last round after announcing that he will be retiring at seasons end.
Focus on Collingwood
The Magpies were back to their absolute best last round. Collingwood dominated disposal yet still had a remarkable 81 tackles (29 more than the Bombers). The hunger was back, the turnover pressure was there and the Magpies only conceded seven goals for the game.
The move of Ben Reid up forward continues to pay dividends. Reid kicked three goals and took eight marks while allowing Travis Cloke to play one-on-one with his opponent more often. This allowed Cloke to kick five goals and also work his opponent up the ground as well. Jamie Elliott and Jarryd Blair were both able to chip in with three and two goals respectively which made the forward line look very dangerous again.
Brent Macaffer – When these sides last met, Macaffer had the tagging job on Josh Kennedy. Despite Sydney’s convincing win, Macaffer was able to hold Kennedy to 18 disposals. He was one player who probably won his position on the night. However, Buckley has been reluctant to use Macaffer in tagging roles through the middle part of this season, instead opting to utilise him in a more attacking forward role. This changed last week when Macaffer played a tight tagging role on Dyson Heppell. Despite giving away a few free kicks, Macaffer ultimately did a reasonable job on Heppell allowing him only 22 disposals. All these disposals were under pressure. I think Buckley will opt to use Macaffer in a tagging role on Josh Kennedy again, although he could also be used on Dan Hannebery or Kieren Jack. It might also be an option to use him as a half forward playing a defensive role on Jarrad McVeigh.
Dayne Beams – The reigning Collingwood Copeland Trophy winner has not missed a beat since returning to the side in round 16. He has averaged 30 disposals and also kicked three goals. He is also averaging four tackles a game. He did not play when these sides last met so his availability will provide a boost. His presence has already had a direct impact on the form of Swan, Scott Pendlebury and Ball who are all benefitting from his return. Steele Sidebottom has also been used as a sweeping half back which is a luxury the Pies could not afford without Beams in the side. After a frustrating first half of the year, Beams looks as though he is priming himself for a big finals campaign.
Quinten Lynch – Many had written off the Q-Stick after a form slump in the middle of the season. But instead he went back to VFL level after overcoming a back injury and played very well, which in turn led to his senior recall last round against Essendon. He played a great match, picking up 21 disposals, kicking one goal and also playing as a back-up ruckman to the inexperienced Brodie Grundy. He adds a lot to the Collingwood structure as he gives Buckley the freedom to swing Reid back into defence, whilst also adding depth in the ruck stocks. He is also more versatile than Hudson or Witts who are both vying for the second ruck position. He will be important this week, especially if Grundy is selected to take on the physicality of Mumford and Pyke. Lynch will need to add support.
Harry O’Brien – Harry returned to his best last round, picking up 27 disposals and kicking a goal. He seemed to play behind the ball as a loose man but also provided great run through the midfield all match. He looked hungry and his tackling was ferocious. He also put himself in goal scoring positions, and was perhaps unlucky to end the match with only one goal. He proved how valuable he is to the side.
Focus on Sydney
The strength of the Swans is the incredible depth in their midfield. Such depth has allowed Longmire the luxury of playing McVeigh across half back which is providing real class coming out of defence along with Malceski. There are very few teams in the AFL that can combine such attack with defence. There are no ‘down-hill skiers’ and every player is willing to do a role for the team, including the more high profile players.
Despite injuries, Sydney has been able to find players to step in. Players such as Kurt Tippett, Tom Mitchell, Jed Lamb, Brandon Jack and Dane Rampe have all stepped in to fill roles of injured players. Rampe in particular has been very solid since the injury to Johnson early in the year.
Kurt Tippett – The controversial forward has made his presence felt at the Swans since serving his 11-week suspension. He was the difference last week against the Bulldogs kicking six goals. In fact, Tippett has kicked 21 goals in just seven games. He has made the absence of Sam Reid and Adam Goodes nearly non-existent and has made an already potent forward line even more complete. He is going to be a real handful in September given the fact he is relatively fresh and keen to live up to the hype after leaving Adelaide.
Jesse White – White has been the main beneficiary from the absence of Reid and Goodes and has cemented a spot for himself up forward over the last month. The 25-year-old finally looks set to live up to his potential. He has kicked 13 goals for the year so far. With Reid and Goodes to return, his position in the team is far from secure, so he needs to impress against good sides like Collingwood if he is to retain his spot for finals.
Kieren Jack – The reliable midfielder has taken his game to a whole new level in season 2013. He is now a real favourite for the Brownlow Medal and is also the clear winner of the AFLCA Award which is a huge achievement considering Gary Ablett is having a career-best season. He has also leap frogged his teammate Josh Kennedy in the Official AFL Player Ratings. Jack is much more than just a tagger now. He averages 26 disposals and a goal a game, to go with seven tackles per game (number one in competition). He was best afield last week with 13 tackles and 30 disposals as well as two goals. In recent weeks, many sides have opted to tag Jack ahead of his more fancied teammates. It will be interesting to see whether Longmire elects to use Jack as a tagger on one of Collingwood’s gun midfielders, or whether he plays as a ball winner.
Jarrad McVeigh – As mentioned above, McVeigh has made himself at home as a rebounding half back flanker. When allowed to run free, McVeigh has become the architect of so many Sydney attacks starting from defence. He is smart and reliable with the ball. McVeigh is averaging over 26 disposals a game, and has also been able to push forward and kick 13 goals to date. He simply must be tagged by a Collingwood forward or be made to play accountably. This is easier said than done because if you tag McVeigh, then the Swans still have Malceski and Rhyce Shaw, and McVeigh can push into the midfield.
The Wrap Up
Sydney will start this game raging favourite considering it is on a six game winning streak and has out-played Collingwood in the previous two encounters. However, Collingwood is nearing full strength, and the absence of Adam Goodes will be felt since he has dominated the Magpies in the past.
I get the feeling Collingwood is about to really start motoring now. That said, the Magpies have been really inconsistent all season. The win against Essendon was a good start, but Collingwood needs to match the benchmark side in the competition if it is truly to consider itself a challenger this season and put two solid weeks together.
Sydney has amazing midfield depth, but Collingwood can match them in this area. Cloke has always provided a handful for Sydney. The difference may be Pyke and Mumford in the ruck. If Collingwood can break even in the ruck, it will go a long way to winning this match.
Pies by 8 points
By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86
