Part 1: The Magpie defence
Part 2: The Magpie midfield
The third and final part of this week’s Grand Final Preview takes a look at the Collingwood forward line. As this is my last article for season 2011, I’d like to take the opportunity to thank all those that have read my articles and I hope that I can return again next year.
Recap the Grand Final parade.
Collingwood had a great return from its two big tall forwards last week. Dawes and Cloke kicked six out of the side’s ten goals. In particular, it was great to see Dawes return to form and he was a real presence all night. However, Hawthorn’s defence is much weaker and shorter than that of Geelong’s, so Collingwood’s twin towers have a much tougher task on Saturday.
My greatest concern is that Collingwood’s forward pressure has not been as intense as we have all become accustomed to. This explains why Fasolo has been recalled to the side. Didak has also been out of form which has left a heavy reliance on Sidebottom, Blair and Krakouer.
Nevertheless, the Magpies still have a wide range of goal-kickers and will be a handful for Geelong.
View the selected side for Saturday.
Travis Cloke v Harry Taylor - Taylor’s record against Cloke in recent history is very good and is a guarantee to start on Cloke on Saturday. Cloke however did take the points in last year’s preliminary final and his current form must leave him confident that he can beat Taylor in one on one marking contests. His work ethic will also be a handful and Taylor may struggle to follow him on long leads up the ground. Cloke will be one of the keys on the weekend. He is perhaps the most influential big man on the ground, and Geelong will likely win if they can shut him out of the game. The beauty of Cloke is that he can have an impact even if he is not winning a lot of the ball. He competes so well in marking contests and ensures the small forwards get plenty of crumbing opportunities. His shepherding and tackling pressure is also top notch for a big man.
Chris Dawes v Tom Longergan - Longergan should get first crack at Dawes so that Scarlett can play loose and control the backline. Lonergan has had a terrific year for Geelong and has stood up on the best forwards week in week out. Dawes needs a big game. He needs to draw defenders away from Cloke and compete in marking contests.
Download the Official MatchDay Program for the Grand Final
Leigh Brown v Matthew Scarlett - Scarlett will likely start on Leigh Brown and look to zone off to help cover Cloke and Dawes. Brown needs to make Scarlett accountable, and also has a double role of helping out in the ruck. It is Brown’s last ever AFL game, so he will come out firing with no concern about his own welfare. Expect him to throw his weight around. Scarlett however must be stopped. Not only does he play such a crucial stopping role, he can also win a lot of the football and set up a lot of play. He is a brilliant body on body player and is rarely beaten in a marking contest. He will most likely pay little respect to Brown, so Collingwood needs to lower its eyes going forward and look to play through Scarlett’s opponent which will force him to play tighter.
Andrew Krakouer v David Wojcinski - Krakouer is one of the real good news stories to come out of 2011. He solidified his spot in the Collingwood side and must be pinching himself to be playing in a Grand Final. After a good qualifying final, Krakouer was well held by the Hawks last week. He made his name in the WAFL as a big game player, and there is no bigger stage than the Grand Final. However, he’ll most likely be matched up to the speedster David Wojcinski. Krakouer must be careful not to allow Wojcinski too much of the ball as he can be quite a damaging player. He is lightning quick, breaks the lines and totally opens the game up. Krakouer does not have fantastic foot speed, so he has to watch Wojcinski very carefully. Wojsinski has been another great story for Geelong this year and is one of its most important players. Despite the fact he is ageing, he has probably put together one of his best seasons. His speed off defence will be crucial on Saturday.
Jarryd Blair v Josh Hunt - I thought Blair was terrific for Collingwood last week. He didn’t win a lot of the footy, but he had a real dip and his pressure was really good. Blair has become a very important player for the Magpies as he is one of the best tacklers in the forward line and he can rotate into the midfield. Josh Hunt is my tip to start on Blair. Like Enright and Scarlett, Hunt is a very damaging player with the ball in his hands, so Blair’s defensive pressure needs to be at its best.
Steele Sidebottom v Andrew Mackie - Don’t be surprised to see Mackie start on a wing matched up to Thomas or even Alan Didak. He started on Embley last week and did a great job. After a disappointing 2010, Mackie has put together a brilliant season and has turned himself into a great utility for the Cats. In regards to Sidebottom, I think he could be a real smokey for the Norm Smith Medal as I think he is due for a big game. He was great in both of last year’s Grand Finals. However, his form in the second half of this year has been a little bit below his typically high standards. The Magpies could definitely do with a few goals from Steele on Saturday.
The Burning Question: Alan Didak (likely opponent - Corey Enright)
Malthouse has put a lot of faith in Didak. I thought Didak actually brought a bit of spark to the side in the last quarter in the preliminary final when he was subbed on, despite that face he did not win much of the football. I think the side stood taller when he came on. The question this week will be whether Malthouse elects to use Didak as the sub, or whether Fasolo takes this role. I actually think Collingwood needs more small forwards in the side to make the Cats more accountable. I hope Didak starts and has a big game. Corey Enright is likely to get the job on Didak this week if he starts the game. Enright is an All-Australian defender and will be a difficult opponent. He is also a damaging user of the football and needs attention.
The Weather
The forecast is for heavy rain and very cold weather. In some regards this suits Collingwood considering it will nullify the Geelong rucks and also put less reliance on Jolly and Reid who are carrying injuries.
On the other hand, Geelong is a terrific wet weather side with big bodies in the midfield who relish physicality. The Cats will not be upset if it rains. I don’t think Collingwood would be overly disappointed either.
The Magpies possess a number of players who handle the ball really cleanly in the wet. Thomas, Krakouer and Sidebottom in particular spring to mind.
Either way, the weather will be a factor on Saturday and will make the game a really tight tussle.
Conclusion
Overall, Geelong is the side I think deserves to go in favourites purely because of its recent form. However, in wet weather and on Grand Final day, expect a tough and ferocious Collingwood side. The Magpies have been the best side all year and carried the favouritism tag comfortably. However injuries have slowed them up significantly towards the end of the year. Geelong on the other hand has built the season beautifully.
It is going to be a terrific game. The two best sides of 2011 are in the decider, and it is going to be a very tight finish. Both teams know how to win close games and have amazing self belief that they can find a way to win.
I have to keep the faith and tip the Magpies this week. Perhaps it’s my heart trumping my mind, but I think it will be Nick Maxwell holding the cup with Mick Malthouse at 5:30 on Saturday afternoon.
Collingwood by 5 points
By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86
