After a week off, I return for another massive preview ahead of this week’s do or die preliminary final between Collingwood and Hawthorn at the MCG on Friday night.
This week’s edition will be another three-part preview taking a look at all the different positions on the ground. Today I start off with a basic overview of the game and a look at the Collingwood defence versus Hawthorn forward line.
Overview
The Magpies should be feeling fresh after a week off and have the ability to field the strongest possible side this weekend. Ben Reid is available to return, as is Dale Thomas who has now served his two-week suspension.
Collingwood’s last month has been patchy. The side has struggled to put together four-quarter performances and does not seem to have the same killer attitude that it had this time last year.
Nonetheless, the victory against the West Coast Eagles was hard-fought and gutsy considering the defence was undermanned and the Eagles played quality footy. There were patches throughout the second and third quarter where the Magpies seemingly regained their mojo.
The mood must generally be very positive at the Westpac Centre as the side is finally back to full strength and sore players have had a fortnight to rest the body.
All seemed over for Hawthorn two weeks ago after a disappointing loss to Geelong and the season potentially over for Lance Franklin. With Buddy making a Lazarus-type recovery, the Hawks bounced back last weekend to dispense with a red-hot Sydney Swans. Hawthorn has always fancied itself against Collingwood and will definitely be buoyed for a physical encounter on Friday night.
Despite all the focus on Buddy Franklin and his knee, the fact is that Hawthorn is in a preliminary final for a lot more reasons that having the best full forward in the competition. There is star power all over the field and a lot of mature bodies which are tailor-made for finals football.
Hawthorn will be particularly impressed with the form of its mature aged recruits who all fired against Sydney last week. Smith and Puopolo have been real finds, while Hale is kicking goals and winning hitouts. The only real issue for the side is its ability to run out games.
The Hawks have lost their step in the second half of games and will need a four-quarter effort his week. The Swans were able to mount a second-half comeback last week, however Hawthorn did rally to kick away late.
Both sides seem clear on the injury front. Hawthorn will monitor Puopolo who pulled up sore in the hamstring after last week’s match. However at this stage is seems as if he will be available. Franklin’s workload at training will also be managed this week.
Collingwood on the other hand needs to find room for Thomas and Reid. The obvious two candidates for omission seem to be Fasolo and Goldsack. However, Alan Didak faded out of the game against West Coast and may find himself under the pump at the selection table this week.
Either way, it is going to be a very tough call for Malthouse and his selection team. Goldsack played important defensive jobs on key playmakers like Embley in the qualifying final. Malthouse may require the extra defensive pressure.
The Collingwood Defence / Hawthorn Forward Line
The Collingwood defensive unit has been heavily tested in the second half of the year with a number of injuries to key players. Nonetheless, Shaw, Maxwell and Davis are now back in the side and instantly back in form, Tarrant should be fresh, and Ben Reid will also return. For the first time in quite a while, the Magpies are at absolute full strength down back.
Lance Franklin vs Chris Tarrant - This could be the most decisive match-up on the ground. Tarrant has a good record against Franklin, but Buddy has kicked 26 goals over the last five games against Collingwood. As mentioned above, it was a near miracle that Buddy even played against Sydney last weekend. He still managed four goals and three behinds. He is still a bit sore and slightly restricted in his movement. Tarrant is typically a good opponent for Buddy because he matches him in marking contests for strength and has quick closing speed. The key will be to stopping Franklin at ground level. Despite the improvement in his contested marking, I still feel Franklin is at his most dangerous when the ball is at ground level and his mobility against slower defenders is on show. Undoubtedly Maxwell and Reid will look to help Tarrant out throughout the game.
David Hale vs Ben Reid - Hale has been one of the real stories of 2011 for Hawthorn. With his career seemingly over, the Hawks gave him a second chance and he has repaid the faith. He kicked two goals last week and won 28 hitouts in a terrific all-round game. Importantly, he has really lifted in the absence of Roughead and has provided a good tall option up forward as an alternative to Franklin. Ben Reid should get the matchup for the Magpies. Reid is fresh from receiving his first All Australian selection at centre-half back. He has had some groin complaints late in the year, but should be fully fit this week. This matchup is incredibly vital to the game, as Reid will look to peel off Hale to help cover for Franklin. If Hale can draw enough of the footy and kick a few goals, it will help spread the Magpie defence and provide more room for Buddy.
Cyril Rioli v Harry O’Brien - I thought Harry had one of his best games against West Coast in the qualifying final. He had 30 disposals and also did a great job on Le Cras. When he looked out of a contest, he simply found a way to spoil his opponent. This is good news for the Magpies as Harry’s form has been patchy in 2011. He has one of his biggest challenges this week as he will be asked to cover the electrifying Cyril Rioli for large patches of the match. Cyril has battled hamstring complaints for a while, but he is constantly managed throughout games and is in terrific form. He is one of the hardest players to stop in the competition when he is firing, and he always has a say in big games. Along with Franklin, Rioli provides the real star power to the Hawthorn forward line. The other option for the Magpies will be Leon Davis, or potentially Ben Johnson, when Rioli goes into the midfield.
Michael Osborne v Alan Toovey - Osborne is the sort of player who can sneak under the radar and his forward pressure is typically quite good. Alan Toovey is likely to get the job on him and look to shut him down. Toovey was terrific against West Coast as he was often asked to play on much taller opponents in the absence of Reid. His pace and tackling pressure make him a good opponent for Osborne.
Brendon Whitecross v Heath Shaw - Whitecross started on Kennelly last week and may be asked to do a defensive job on the damaging Heath Shaw. After missing eight weeks of footy, Shaw returned to the side last week and it seemed as if he never left. He picked up the pace of the game straight away and was one of Collingwood’s best players throughout.
Isaac Smith v Ben Johnson - I think Smith needs to be watched this week. He is another terrific story for the Hawks in 2011 considering Smith was recruited as a mature aged recruit from the VFL and has made a real mark on the AFL this season. He has terrific speed and can kick a goal. Therefore, I think Ben Johnson should get the role on him as Smith is likely to play more up on a wing and push forward. Johnson is the more capable midfield tagger. I considered giving this job to O’Brien, with Davis on Rioli, but I think Harry is needed permanently in defence and Smith can play more up the ground.
X-Factor - Leon Davis
Leon capped off a terrific season on Monday night when he received All Australian honours in the backline. Hawthorn will have to manage Davis possesses damaging foot skills and speed off halfback which makes him such a damaging player. However, if too much attention is thrown onto Davis, then Shaw will find more freedom. There is a chance Malthouse will throw him the challenge on playing on Rioli, however I think ultimately he will be freed up and look to set up the play off halfback.
The Verdict
Despite the clear star power in the Hawthorn forward line, the Magpies seem to matchup quite well on paper and have the options to cover. From the matchups above, I still haven’t even listed Nick Maxwell who should be freed up to help cover Buddy Franklin. Without Roughead, the Hawks are probably one genuine tall short up forward given Hale is also required to spend a lot of time in the ruck.
Nonetheless, when a forward line consists of Franklin and Rioli, it is always going to be a handful to manage. The Hawks will however need good outputs from the midfield and small forwards to help spread the Magpies defence.
