Since publishing his first report on Nick's Bulletin Board in early 2005, DaVe86 has become a weekly favourite among the passionate online Magpie Army receiving thousands of views for each article.
The articles are lengthy and have been published in their entirety as the club did not want to hinder DaVe86's creativity during the writing process. The views expressed in DaVe86's previews are solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Collingwood Football Club.
After a miserable ANZAC Day, Collingwood and St Kilda face off at Etihad Stadium this Friday night in a very important round six encounter
After a positive start to the season, the Magpies have been exposed by two quality teams in Hawthorn and Essendon. The season ending knee injury to Alan Toovey did rub salt into the wounds as he is perhaps one of Collingwood’s least replaceable players. Nonetheless, Collingwood still sits on three wins and two losses and sits well placed in eighth position.
Collingwood would be concerned by the fact that it has not been able to put sides away so far this year. It had opportunities against both Hawthorn and Essendon but was wayward in front of goals. The other concern is that the Pies have been overrun in last quarters in three of its five matches this year.
St Kilda on the other hand is in 14th place with only one win. However, the Saints have been competitive in the last few weeks and were impressive against Sydney last round. The Saints need a big scalp to remain in touch with the top eight and also to regather some momentum after a difficult start to the year.
The Saints have been able to introduce a number of young players to the side such as Nathan Wright, Sebastian Ross, Josh Saunders, Brodie Murdoch and Tom Lee but there is still a heavy reliance on the veterans such as Lenny Hayes, Leigh Montagna, Nick Dal Santo, Sam Fisher and Nick Riewoldt.
Both Collingwood and St.Kilda have been questioned defensively this year and are struggling in the clearances. In fact, both these sides currently sit equal 14th in the competition for clearances. This is a huge surprise considering both midfields still have big names and experience. Undoubtedly, a huge focus for both coaches will be improving the stoppage work on Friday night.
Recent History
These clubs have played off in some extremely close contests in recent years. The Magpies have won five of the last six contests inclusive of the drawn Grand Final in 2010.
The last time these two sides played was in round 19 last season when the Magpies ran out controversial six-point victors after Harry O’Brien was paid a lucky free kick that prevented a certain St Kilda goal.
Steele Sidebottom and Dayne Beams were good for the Magpies picking up 32 disposals each. Darren Jolly polled the three Brownlow votes (37 hitouts, 21 disposals, 10 marks, two goals), Dane Swan polled two (31 disposals, two goals) and Lenny Hayes one (28 disposals, five tackles).
At the Selection Table
All eyes will be on Nathan Buckley this week to see how he restructures the team after a crushing ANZAC Day loss. Historically, Buckley hasn’t made too many changes, however I feel he has a few big decisions to make.
Of particular interest is the strong form of a number of big name players in the VFL side which beat Bendigo by 116 points. Andrew Krakouer must be extremely close to selection following a fortnight of very strong performances. Alan Didak has also been impressive and is coming off a 31 possession game. Luke Ball also returned in style last round via the VFL, but will most likely require more match fitness before qualifying for selection.
Others to impress in the VFL include Jarrod Witts (25 hitouts and 21 disposals), Josh Thomas (40 disposals), Ben Kennedy (27 disposals) and Kyle Martin (36 disposals).
Darren Jolly also made his return from a rib injury and picked up 17 possessions and 39 hitouts. Given his best afield performance against St Kilda last year, he may return at the expense of Ben Hudson who could be feeling the effects of a gruelling three weeks covering for Jolly.
The other big question for Buckley will be how he replaces Alan Toovey. Ben Johnson faces a fitness test and seems the most likely replacement. However, Marley Williams is fresh from a strong VFL performance and could be a smoky for the back pocket position. Also keep an eye out for Adam Oxley who is edging closer to return after Midfield Development Coach Tarkyn Lockyer told collingwoodfc.com.au that Oxley has been “our most consistent VFL player”.
Buckley’s other question is how he structures the forward line. With the possible returns of Krakouer and Didak, Buckley may also consider playing a third tall such as Jackson Paine (who has been performing gallantly in the VFL) or bringing in a second ruck in Jarrod Witts who has also been performing strongly.
The extra tall could be a useful assistance to Travis Cloke who is finding it difficult to compete with two or three opponents when Quinten Lynch is in the ruck. Tyson Goldsack may also be forced to go into defence in the absence of Nick Maxwell and Toovey, which means Cloke is often the only tall in the forward line.
Turning the focus onto St Kilda, and the Saints will be buoyed by the return of Stephen Milne from suspension. Collingwood has struggled to contain small forwards this year and the absence of Toovey will leave a gaping hole. Therefore, St Kilda coach Scott Watters may also consider recalling Terry Milera after he kicked six goals in the VFL last week. A forward line with Milne, Milera and Ahmed Saad is very dangerous and will ask serious questions of an undermanned Collingwood defence.
The other question for Watters will be how to structure his ruck division. Justin Koschitzke failed to fire last week and Beau Maister is out for an extended period. The Saints may opt to recall Tom Hickey to assist Ben McEvoy in the ruck. The highly rated Arryn Siposs will also come into contention, while Farren Ray may be called upon for experience.
Focus on Collingwood
Questions have been asked of the Magpie defence this week in the papers. Although it is perhaps an overreaction to a few poor performances, Buckley will be undoubtedly concerned at the fact that Collingwood averages 106 points against so far this year and has a very poor percentage.
Despite the absence of Toovey and Maxwell, Buckley’s real concern will be midfield pressure. Acting captain Scott Pendlebury said his midfield teammates ‘cheated’ against Essendon, implying that they were running ahead of the ball too quickly and failing to get back in defence. In the past, Collingwood has been a dominant clearance team but with the absence of Dayne Beams and Luke Ball, clearances have started to become a huge issue for Collingwood and a greater defensive mindset needs to be employed.
Buckley may opt to bring back Josh Thomas or even call upon Kyle Martin to add some onball grunt.
It may also be an opportunity for a player such as Dale Thomas to play a defensive role on a player such as Montagna or Dal Santo.
Steele Sidebottom – Steele has been asked to play a variety of roles this year. He has played his best footy as a forward and has managed to hit the scoreboard regularly. Last week he was asked to play a job on Jobe Watson in the first half and did an awesome job. He was quieter in the second half, and Watson ultimately took the points, but he was one Magpie who could hold his head high with 31 disposals.
Tyson Goldsack – Although he has had a quiet start to the year after a delayed start to the off-season, Goldsack will play a vital role for the Magpies in the coming weeks. He has typically played as a third tall up forward and has been solid in this role over the past year. However, the absence of Maxwell and Toovey means that Goldsack may have to play in defence to help cover.
Jamie Elliott – ‘Billy’ has had a quieter few weeks following his breakout game against Carlton. This could be a direct result of opposition coaches now putting much more attention on him. If a few senior players like Krakouer and Didak return, this could really free up Elliott. I feel Elliott needs to remain focused on the defensive aspect of his game. He made his name as an aggressive tackler and needs to make sure his doesn’t sacrifice these defensive traits in order to win more of the ball.
Focus on St Kilda
Despite its slow start to the year, St Kilda is not a side to be taken lightly. It still possesses quality players up forward and in the midfield. The loss of Brendon Goddard has stung, but the Saints would be buoyed by the development of some of the younger players so far this year.
Defence is an issue and the Saints still lack a big bodied defender to take on power forwards. Travis Cloke will prove a huge headache for Watters this week.
In terms of the midfield, the Saints have players such as Jack Steven and David Armitage who are two who need to (and can) take the next step and become elite.
Leigh Montagna – In 2012, Montagna was turned into a tagger and did a reasonable job of it. This year, Montagna has returned to be a more attacking midfielder and has probably been the Saints most consistent player so far this year averaging 27 disposals. He was very good last week against Sydney kicking two goals. It will be interesting to see whether Montagna is asked to play a defensive role on either Dane Swan or Pendlebury or be asked to continue to play in an attacking manner.
Nick Riewoldt – The Saints skipper reminded the AFL world last week how good he can be. It was a true ‘captain’s game’, picking up 27 disposals, 13 marks, 7 tackles and two goals. He is likely to face Nathan Brown on Friday night and needs yet another big game if the Saints are to cause an upset. However, he needs assistance from one of his other tall forwards as Collingwood is likely to zone off to provide extra cover against Riewoldt.
Stephen Milne – If the Saints are to beat the Magpies on Friday night, you get the feeling that it will be due to a big game from Stephen Milne who will be very keen to bounce back from a slow start to the season. He has only averaged 11 disposals and kicked six goals (this includes a three goal haul against Greater Western Sydney).
The Wrap Up
This is a crunch game for both sides. Collingwood’s top four aspirations will take a huge hit if it cannot beat the Saints on Friday night, while the Saints’ finals hopes could waver if they slump to only one win from six games.
Travis Cloke looms as the match winner for the Magpies as the Saints defence is notoriously undersized. If the Magpies are able to get on top around the stoppages, it will be extremely tough for the Saints to contain the power forward. Lynch could also become a factor.
The Saints’ best hope of winning is to get a good output for Milne and Saad and to get a few goals out of players such as Montagna and Jack Steven.
The biggest question mark over St Kilda in recent years has been its ability to get goals from its midfield. Collingwood on the other hand has considered this a strength. If guys like Swan, Sidebottom and Pendlebury are able to get on top, it might be too much for the Saints to contain.
I think the Pies will bounce back after a disappointing loss last round.
Collingwood by 25 points.
By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86
