Since publishing his first report on Nick's Bulletin Board in early 2005, DaVe86 has become a weekly favourite among the passionate online Magpie Army receiving thousands of views for each article.
The articles are lengthy and have been published in their entirety as the club did not want to hinder DaVe86's creativity during the writing process.
The views expressed in DaVe86's previews are solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Collingwood Football Club.
There are certain games every year that I look forward to a little bit more than usual. The Collingwood v Carlton rivalry is definitely one of those games. Round three will kick off with a bang on Friday night when Carlton host Collingwood at the MCG in front of what is expected to be a capacity crowd.
Carlton has made a very impressive start to the season. It has won its opening two rounds against Richmond and Brisbane in convincing style. However, Friday night will be Carlton’s big test considering its opening two games have been against lower ranked sides.
Collingwood, on the other hand, has had a mixed start to the season. Injuries have played a role, but it is clear the Magpies have not hit peak form as yet. Nonetheless, the Magpies chalked up their first win last week against Richmond after a tough loss to Hawthorn in round one. Collingwood was patchy in its win against Richmond and can put the result down to an awesome six minute period at the start of the third quarter when it kicked six unanswered goals.
Nathan Buckley would’ve been happier with the defence and the midfield pressure throughout the game. However, he would also be concerned by the fact that the Magpies were soundly beaten in the last quarter for the second week running. Fitness has long been a hallmark of Collingwood’s success, yet early this season the Magpies so far haven’t run out games as well as they have in recent years. Nonetheless, consideration must be given to the fact that there are a number of younger players in the side at the moment and the return of a number of key players should improve the team’s ability to run out games.
Turning the attention back to Carlton, and I have been most impressed with the ferocity and relentlessness that their midfield is approaching games with. So far this year, their tackling pressure is close to the best going around. Marc Murphy is in career best form, whilst the intensity of players like Mitch Robinson, Chris Yarran and Ed Curnow has really improved the side. Having a fit and firing Matthew Kreuzer has also made a huge difference, as the ruck combination with Shaun Hampson is proving deadly.
A lot will be read into this game. Carlton is a premiership threat, but must first establish itself in the top four. The Blues need to start pushing the top sides. They have proven themselves as a class above the middle of the road sides, but are yet to take a big scalp. On the other hand, Collingwood has fielded a young side in the first two games this year, but a win this week will send a message to the competition that it is still a strong force.
Recent History
Collingwood has won the previous five encounters against Carlton. Dane Swan has been a destroyer in the midfield, whilst the tall timber up forward in Travis Cloke and Chris Dawes have proved too big and strong for the Carlton defence.
When these sides last met in round 17 last year, Chris Judd polled the three votes with 35 disposals despite the fact his side lost by 19 points. Dale Thomas polled two votes with 29 disposals, whilst Dane Swan again polled against Carlton with 31 disposals.
Where the Game can be Won or Lost
Carlton and Collingwood arguably possess the two most star-studded midfields in the competition. Swan, Pendlebury, Thomas and Ball will go head to head against Judd, Murphy, Gibbs and Simpson. The depth in both side’s midfields is also impressive with guys like Wellingham, Beams and Sidebottom now established in the midfield rotations for Collingwood, and Robinson, Carrazzo and Curnow rounding out the Carlton midfield.
Clearly, the game is going to be won and lost in these battles. The ruck combination of Kreuzer and Hampson has been dominant in the opening two rounds. Kreuzer in particular has the ability to win a lot of clearances through his athleticism and skill below his knees. He also has the capacity to play forward in rotation with Hampson who has improved his marking and kicking for goal this year. It is a dangerous ruck combination that will cause a lot of headaches for Collingwood on Friday night.
Carlton’s defence has improved dramatically over the last two years. As impressive as it was last week however, it was barely tested against a makeshift Brisbane forward line without Jonathon Brown. The true test will come this week against Cloke and Dawes. Cloke in particular continues his solid form and will be a handful for the Carlton defence.
Up forward, the presence of Jarrad Waite has been influential. In particular, he is bringing Eddie Betts and Jeff Garlett into the play more by creating spillages. Carlton’s forward line is so dangerous and now has a nice blend of talls and smalls, all of whom have good pace.
Collingwood may still feel its best chance of winning is by getting control of the contested footy and getting it in quickly to Cloke who will outmuscle any Carlton defender. Jamison is a quality opponent, but will struggle body on body with Cloke. The defence should also match up quite well against the Carlton talls, but will feel the absence of Chris Tarrant who is the ideal match-up for Waite.
Carlton would feel buoyant about the game of Chris Judd in round two. After a sluggish start to the year, Judd really turned the game in the second half and seemed to return to his best form. In combination with Murphy, the Blues were able to totally maul the Brisbane midfield. On the other hand, Collingwood saw the absolute brilliance of Dale Thomas in the third quarter in a match-turning display. Swan and Pendlebury continue to fire as well.
Player Focus
Collingwood
Ben Reid - Reid has had a tough start to the year with Lance Franklin and Jack Riewoldt his first two opponents. After the disappointment of last year’s Grand Final, I think Reid has responded well and shown his class as a defender. He was perhaps beaten by Franklin, but Reid has been a rock in defence in the absence of Tarrant, Nathan Brown, Nick Maxwell and Ben Johnson. This has meant he is not getting his usual support and is playing on opponents who do not typically suit him. He is also trying to forge a new partnership with Lachlan Keeffe who has only played a handful of senior games, most of which were as a forward. This week he faces a versatile and physically strong Carlton forward line led by Jarrad Waite, with Kreuzer and Hampson rotating from the ruck.
Alan Toovey - ‘Tooves’ has had a typically low key start to the year but continues to do his job week in week out. He gets a mention in my preview this week as he will likely be responsible for either Betts or Garlett. Both the Carlton small forwards are in incredible form and are enjoying the assistance from Waite and Kreuzer. With Harry O’Brien likely to get the job on Betts, Toovey will likely get first crack at Garlett and if so, will need to play him very closely. On the big stage on a balmy Melbourne night, containing Betts and Garlett will be a key for the Collingwood chances on Friday night as the majority of Carlton’s goals come from its smalls.
Travis Cloke - Cloke is the big game-breaker on Friday night and could prove the difference. As good as Waite, Hampson and Kreuzer are, none possess the genuine presence around the ground as Cloke does. Cloke has established himself as the best contested mark in the competition and is now a genuine goal-kicker. He has a good record against Carlton, but will likely be tested this week by Jamison.
X-Factor
Dale Thomas
At half time against Richmond, 'Daisy' needed to lift. His form in the opening round and a half had been unimpressive and he was lacking his usual flair. Dale’s response was enormous. He kicked three goals in the third quarter and had a hand in another. He finished the game with only 16 disposals, but he was by far and away the difference when the game was on the line. In front of a capacity crowd, expect Thomas to have a huge impact again. He is a huge weapon for Collingwood, and if he can hit top form, the Magpies’ midfield will re-establish itself as the best in the competition.
Carlton
Shaun Hampson - At the beginning of the year, many would have had Hampson as third in line for the ruck role and right on the fringe. However, his opening two rounds have been terrific and his ability to take a grab up forward as well as use his athleticism and speed in the ruck makes him a real weapon for Carlton. He is likely to face the inexperienced Lachlan Keeffe who will match him for height but not strength. His partnership with Kreuzer is likely to keep Warnock out of the side and the debate will surround whether Carlton can play all three in the one side.
Marc Murphy - A debate has started as to whether Murphy is now the number one midfielder ahead of Chris Judd. The truth is that they are an awesome combination and play different roles for their side. Murphy’s spread from contests has been impressive and he has become a real attacking powerhouse. He had 30 disposals and kicked two goals last week in a dominant display against Carlton, and was also in his side’s best against Richmond in round one. It will be interesting to see whether Collingwood elects to pay Murphy and Judd close attention on Friday night, or whether their Magpie opponents elect to back themselves to win their own ball.
Andrew Carrazzo - Whilst all the focus has been on Murphy and Judd, Andrew Carrazzo has been equally as effective in a shut down role over the opening two rounds. He has totally shut down Simon Black and Trent Cotchin whilst winning a stack of the ball himself. His game in particular last round was incredible with 31 disposals to his name whilst limiting Black to 23. One thing that Carlton has over Collingwood is a genuine tagging option and if Carrazzo can shut down a player such as Dane Swan then Carlton is likely to get the ascendency through the middle.
X-Factor
Chris Yarran
I was a huge critic of Yarran when he first moved across half back because I was of the belief that his defensive attributes would not cut it. He has really improved in that area and now has the ability to beat an opponent. Importantly, his speed off half back is chopping opposition presses to shreds and he has the ability to push forward for a goal. He is basically uncatchable and would be one of the quickest players in the competition. Even at half pace, Yarran is too quick for most. Considering Collingwood’s defensive strategy is dependent on its ability to lock the ball inside its forward 50, the rebounding ability of Chris Yarran would totally open the game up. Carlton’s speed in particular could really upset Collingwood.
The Wrap Up
It is yet another blockbuster for Collingwood. Both sides are approaching full strength; however Carlton seems a little sharper at this stage and is in its best position to beat the Magpies for the first time in five matches.
Despite that, Collingwood is slowly warming up and will be very difficult to beat on Friday night. The Magpies will look to force the game into a contested battle and try to limit Carlton’s run, because I think Carlton would fancy themselves in a shoot-out.
It should be an absolute cracker of a match and should live up to the hype. It is early on in the 2012 season, and far too early to form a judgement on the premiership credentials of either side. However, the result will serve as an early indicator as to how far Carlton has come over the off-season and whether it is ready to challenge for the flag this year.
Collingwood by 3 points
By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86
