Since publishing his first report on Nick's Bulletin Board in early 2005, DaVe86 has become a weekly favourite among the passionate online Magpie Army receiving thousands of views for each article.
The articles are lengthy and have been published in their entirety as the club did not want to hinder DaVe86's creativity during the writing process.
The views expressed in DaVe86's previews are solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Collingwood Football Club.
Round eight opens on Friday night with the Grand Final replay between Collingwood and Geelong. The game carries enormous significance to both sides as neither team has cemented themselves in the top eight and have experienced sluggish starts to the season.
Collingwood continues to improve with each round. The Magpies had their biggest win of the season against Brisbane last week by 58 points. With key players still to return, the forecast is much more optimistic.
On the other hand, Geelong’s season has hit a flat spot after a shock 50-point loss to Adelaide. Sitting on four wins and three losses, the Cats are sitting outside the top eight and the experts have been quick to write them off in 2012.
I would not be writing off Geelong just yet. Perhaps I am a scarred Collingwood supporter, but I think it is far too early to put a line through one of the greatest teams in the history of the competition.
There are concerning signs for Geelong that cannot be ignored. The side is yet to win the contested footy so far this year, and is making uncharacteristic mistakes. The intensity is down and the side is looking a little tired. Perhaps the loss to Adelaide will awake Geelong from its slumber in the same way that Collingwood bounced back following the loss to Carlton in round three.
However you look at this game, it is a crunch game for both sides. A loss leaves either side sitting outside the top eight and perhaps out of touch with the top four. Both sides have difficult draws in 2012 and cannot afford too many early losses.
Recent History
Geelong was the only side to beat Collingwood in 2011 and it happened on three occasions including the Grand Final. The Cats were harder, stronger, quicker and smarter in every win. In the Grand Final, the Cats were able to isolate Collingwood’s defenders and also get on top around the stoppages. Tom Hawkins was too strong for any defender, while the defence had Collingwood’s measure.
At the Selection Table
Collingwood’s injury curse had seemingly struck again on Saturday night when Nathan Brown was carried off with a suspected knee injury. Fortunately it was not as serious as first thought and he will be back in a month.
The injury crisis eases significantly this week with Dale Thomas and Chris Dawes both likely starters, and Darren Jolly likely to be available for selection. Chris Tarrant will return to the side via the VFL and should return to the AFL within a few weeks. Barring the four season ending injuries (including Ben Johnson), the team is slowly coming back to full strength with plenty of depth developing.
Geelong will also be bolstered this week with the likely return of Jimmy Bartel. Matthew Scarlett will be tested but will potentially miss again with a thigh injury. However, injuries sustained in round seven to Tom Gillies and Allen Christensen will see both players spend time on the sidelines. Geelong’s VFL team had a bye last week so a number of players including Matthew Stokes have been unable to impress via the VFL.
Focus on Collingwood
Credit has to be given to Nathan Buckley for the way he has re-jigged the forward line. With Krakouer and Macaffer out for the season, and with the retirements on Leigh Brown and Leon Davis, Collingwood’s forward line was totally shaken leading into the season.
Buckley has responded by adding new players into the forward line which has added pace and defensive pressure. Ben Sinclair in particular is improving with every game he is playing and is adding pace and tackling pressure. He is improving in front of goal as well which is a bonus. Buckley has also experimented with Reid and Keeffe forward and both have shown the ability to pinch-hit. Expect Tarrant to be thrown forward as well upon his return.
Alan Didak - Didak made a terrific return to AFL football last week with 25 disposals and a goal and is the missing piece of Nathan Buckley’s forward line puzzle. He adds class to a forward line that has been lacking it. He also will attract good defenders, which should free up others. Will likely get the Corey Enright match-up and needs to be cautious of second-game blues.
Tyson Goldsack - Staying on the topic of the forward line, and Tyson Goldsack has really cemented his spot in the side now playing as a defensive forward. He has kicked five goals in the last two weeks and has a knack of sneaking under opposition radars. At his height, he is a genuine marking option who kicks well and can be creative. However, his main attribute is his intensity and tackling pressure. He helps lock the ball inside forward 50, and also forces opponents to be accountable.
Sharrod Wellingham - Wellingham’s role has changed under Nathan Buckley. He is playing less as a run-with midfielder, and more as a half forward flanker. Again, he his forming part of the re-structured forward line. His is lightning quick and a good tackler. He is also a goal-kicker and very good at finding targets inside 50. Importantly, he is also proving to be a good overhead mark. As the season wears on, he still needs to be a genuine midfield rotation and he needs to still be able to add a bit of run and carry through the midfield.
Focus on Geelong
As mentioned above, Geelong is getting well beaten in the contested footy. It is surprising to say that about this Geelong side which has always prided itself in this area. Players like Jimmy Bartel, Joel Selwood, Paul Chapman and James Kelly are contested footy kings. Yet we have to remember that Bartel and Selwood have experienced injuries early in the season. The Cats are also struggling to fill the void left by Ottens and Ling. Reliance has been placed on youngsters like Guthrie, Hunt, Smedts and Stringer to step up in defence, while Trent West has been asked to ruck solo most of the year. The absence of Wojcinski and Varcoe has also been felt as the Cats are lacking a bit of pace.
Mitch Duncan - In his third season, Duncan has really stepped up and was one of Geelong’s better players in the disappointing loss last week. He kicked three goals from 21 possessions. He has cemented himself as a regular player now and is improving by the week. Duncan is hard at the ball and has a touch of class about him.
Steven Motlop - Motlop has been a success story for Geelong in 2012. With Varcoe out, he has been able to step in and provide real flare in the forward line. He was a bit down last week against Adelaide and needed to go a bit harder in a few contests (which goes for a number of his team-mates as well) but he gets the chance to make amends on the big stage.
Tom Hawkins - Hawkins was the toast of the football world after the Grand Final following a match-winning second half on Ben Reid. However, many experts reserved judgement on Tom Hawkins as they were waiting to see whether he would carry this form into season 2012. He definitely has. He is second on the goal-kicking table with 19 and looks to now have enormous confidence.
The Wrap Up
You always have to be weary of a side, which has been blasted in the media during the week. Especially when that side is Geelong. However, it is a real opportunity for Collingwood to take some revenge on the Cats in the Grand Final re-match.
The Cats are lacking a lot of experience in the side and are a long way from their best. Collingwood on the other hand has re-found some spark and is closing in on full strength.
The midfield battles are breath taking, with Swan, Pendlebury, Thomas, Beams and Sidebottom squaring off against Selwood, Kelly, Bartel, Chapman and Corey. Neither side has an out and out tagger so we could see a number of head to head battles. It will be a big test for Dayne Beams who will take Luke Ball’s typical role against Joel Selwood. Beams is in career best form, but expect the young Geelong skipper to lead from the front following the criticism of his team this week.
It should be a bumper crowd on a chilly Melbourne night. However, conditions should be good for football and we should see a classic battle between two of the better sides in the competition with plenty to play for.
By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86
