In 2012, collingwoodfc.com.au has again enlisted the help of David Natoli, aka DaVe86, who has shot to internet fame for his in-depth Magpie tactical previews. 

Since publishing his first report on Nick's Bulletin Board in early 2005, DaVe86 has become a weekly favourite among the passionate online Magpie Army receiving thousands of views for each article.

The articles are lengthy and have been published in their entirety as the club did not want to hinder DaVe86's creativity during the writing process.

The views expressed in DaVe86's previews are solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Collingwood Football Club.

This week’s match of the round is Saturday night at AAMI Stadium when Adelaide hosts Collingwood in a battle that will determine early premiership favouritism. Collingwood has bounced back from a sluggish start to win five games in a row, placing it in fifth place with six wins and two losses. Adelaide has gone from strength to strength and sits second on the ladder with seven wins and one loss. In fact, under new coach Brenton Sanderson, the Crows have only lost one game throughout the entire year including the NAB Cup.

Adelaide’s transformation over the pre-season has been incredible. I struggle to poke any holes in the side and I would say that the Crows are the most ferocious team going around at the moment. Despite the fact that Adelaide has a very good draw, the Crows have managed to beat Geelong, Carlton and Sydney so have proven their credentials against good sides. The scalp of Collingwood would undoubtedly prove once and for all that Adelaide is the real deal.

Turning the focus back onto Collingwood, and the thrilling win against Geelong last week showed how gutsy the side can be. The Magpies withstood a trademark Geelong comeback with only one rotation left on the bench. However, the collateral damage from the match leaves the Magpies vulnerable over the next fortnight with Dane Swan and Ben Reid unavailable. Just when it seems the Magpies are overcoming the injury curse, another two players fall over. Yet again, Collingwood’s depth will again be tested.

It will be the first opportunity for good mates Buckley and Sanderson to face off in a home and away match. So let’s delve into the analysis.

Recent History

Adelaide had a massive victory over Collingwood in the NAB Cup. Typically I would not read too much into pre-season games, although it would have given Adelaide a lot of confidence. Further, the Crows have carried the same electric form into the season proper.

Read the story of Collingwood's first trip to Adelaide here.

The last time these two sides met in a home and away match was round nine last year where Adelaide held a 30 point lead at half-time. However, an amazing 18 goal to 6 second half saw the Magpies run out resounding 43 point victors. It was an incredible match, with Dale Thomas polling the three votes, Scott Pendlebury two and Scott Thompson one vote.

At the Selection Table

Nathan Buckley will be forced to make at least two changes with Swan and Reid ruled out for about a fortnight. Chris Tarrant returned to football via the VFL last week but has been ruled out of senior selection despite a solid return. With Nathan Brown also on the sidelines, Collingwood will again be tested down back.

Kirk Ugle, Cameron Wood, Tom Young and Jamie Elliott are among those pressing for selection this week, however none seem to be direct replacements for those who are missing from the senior side.

Adelaide on the other hand has a very fit and healthy list. Taylor Walker has one week left to serve on a suspension which is a relief for Collingwood’s undermanned defence. In his place, Josh Jenkins and Tom Lynch have stepped up.

The Crows have a number of players pressing for selection in the SANFL including Richard Douglas, Andy Otten, Brad Symes and Brodie Martin. However, following such a great performance against Carlton, it is unlikely Sanderson will make any changes unless any players pulled up sore following the game. Adelaide’s list is definitely up and running.

Focus on Collingwood

Collingwood has been impressive in the last five weeks and looks to have regained some of its confidence and aggression that has seen it become one of the powerhouse teams in the competition. Defensively, the whole side has tightened up. The Pies are also improving every week in the contested footy. Despite this, there is still significant improvement required in all of these areas.

If anything, Collingwood needs to lift its game to another level against this in form Adelaide side. Despite the fact that the Magpies have dominated in a lot of key areas over the last month, the side has been unable to capitalise on periods of dominance in matches. With an undermanned side this week, Collingwood needs to make the most of opportunities.

The attention will be on Buckley and how he structures his side with the absence of Dane Swan and Ben Reid. Tyson Goldsack may be required in defence again to cover Reid. Sharrod Wellingham may be required back in the midfield. The loss of Swan will require the entire midfield group to lift as a whole to generate the run and carry required. It’s a big ask for a midfield group which has already been asked to spread the load in the absence of Luke Ball.

Dale Thomas - Daisy had a quiet return from injury last week against Geelong. Nonetheless, there will still flashes of his brilliance throughout the game. After three weeks on the sidelines he can be excused for a sluggish return. However, he will have to flick the switch this week as he needs to step up to fill the void of Dane Swan. He is likely to receive attention from Adelaide taggers who will highlight him as one of the main threats.

Lachlan Keeffe - He is just about the most important player on Collingwood’s list at the moment. With all the star defenders falling down around him, Keeffe has stood tall and become the key post down back. He will again be without an experienced key position defender to help him out, and will get the job on Kurt Tippett who has been in some pretty decent form. Keeffe is a good match-up for Tippett as he more than covers him for height and agility.

Scott Pendlebury - Scott’s last quarter against Geelong last week was one of the best individual efforts I have seen in a long time. With Swan off the ground, and suffering an injury of his own, Pendlebury willed himself to 12 disposals and kicked the match-winning goal. He will most likely get a very tight tag from van Berlo this week. He will need the likes of Steele Sidebottom and Dayne Beams to step up to assist him.

Focus on Adelaide

The Crows are the toast of the town at the moment, and have even been compared to the Geelong side of 2007. I can understand these comparisons, as the Crows are a big-bodied side with the majority of players coming into the right age bracket to peak. It is hard to pinpoint too many deficiencies in the side. The Crows structure up really well, tackle with ferocity and rebound out of defence with flair.

In the pre-season, I thought Adelaide would struggle defensively in the absence of Nathan Bock, Phil Davis and Scott Stevens. However, Daniel Talia and Ben Rutten are holding down the defence well, and they are getting great support from their teammates. The midfield pressure is so good that it is easing the burden on the defenders.

The forward line has a really dangerous look as well, especially with Jason Porplyzia and Ian Callinan back in the side. Importantly, the Crows have a healthy list, with few injuries. Adelaide has already taken a number of big scalps, and after this game has a very nice draw ahead. It is very hard to see Adelaide drop out of the top four if they manage a win over Collingwood this round. In fact, a win might see some install them as the new premiership favourites.

Rory Sloane - When you try and analyse why Adelaide has improved so drastically over the off-season, you don’t have to look much further than Rory Sloane. He is averaging 24 disposals and five tackles a game in 2012. He is quick and plays with a lot of flare and typically does something good with the ball. Sloane can break a game open when it’s tight and is fearless with his attack on the footy. He also follows up his disposal and often wills himself to the next contest. I think Buckley should be very wary of Sloane and potentially run Marty Clarke with him in a similar manner to the tagging job that was done on Brent Stanton.

Patrick Dangerfield - Dangerfield has been a very welcome addition to the midfield in 2012. He has always promised a lot, but has never had the tank to play full games in the centre. This year he is averaging over 27 disposals a game. However, it is his impact around stoppages that has many experts labelling him as the best player in the competition right now. He is quite simply a bull that cannot be stopped when he sets his sights on the footy. However, what makes him the complete footballer is his pace and ability to break a line as well. Dangerfield is equally equipped to devastate sides both inside and outside. It is hard to see too many Collingwood players who are strong enough to match him. It might be left to Heath Shaw to spend more time in the middle as he is the best physical match-up.

Scott Thompson - As he does every year, Scott Thompson is flying under the radar and continues to amass huge numbers. He averages over 31 disposals a game along with 5 marks. He is a terrific clearance player as well. In the past, he has been asked to manage the midfield on his own, but this year is getting great support. He is not overly quick, however he is great at feeding the other midfielders with quick handballs out of stoppages. He will likely square off against a player such as Dayne Beams.

The Wrap Up

Collingwood needs to start well. Adelaide will hit in hard early to try and put the Magpies on the back foot. The crowd will also be very vocal early. If Adelaide is able to get its running game going early, I think it could be too quick for the Magpies through the middle. The Crows are playing with such confidence and instinct, so Collingwood needs to keep the game tight and win the contested footy.

Darren Jolly also needs to match Sam Jacobs in the ruck as Jacobs is one of the premier tap ruckmen in the game. If Chris Dawes and Travis Cloke can get enough opportunity, they will be a tough assignment for the Adelaide defence.

Despite the win against Geelong last round, I think this is Collingwood’s biggest test to date. The Pies have a tough draw and can’t afford to lose touch with the top four.

It should be an absolute cracker.

By David Natoli

Aka DaVe86