Sydney is currently the clear top of the ladder side, sitting a game and percentage ahead of Collingwood and Adelaide, and two games ahead of Hawthorn. There has been very little talk about Sydney as a genuine premiership threat, but all football experts are now standing up and taking notice. Sydney has only lost three games all season, and has won its last nine games in a row.
Nonetheless, it has lost its previous 10 games against Collingwood, meaning the Swans have not beaten Collingwood in six years.
Sydney will go into Saturday night’s game as favourite, and rightly so given the form of the two sides over the past month. Sydney is looking the complete side at the moment with a good even spread across every position on the field. It is playing with an attacking flair that we have not seen in previous seasons, yet it is still one of the toughest contested sides in the competition (ranking third in contested possession).
Collingwood on the other hand is still a long way from its best form. The heart-stopping win last round against St Kilda was extremely scrappy. It even led Nathan Buckley to state that the Benny Hill theme song would be a suitable soundtrack to last week’s performance. The game was riddled with errors, and the offensive side of the game left a lot to be desired. On a more positive note, the defensive pressure was much better and the Collingwood backline stood up.
The Magpies have been rocked this week with the suspension of Dane Swan for disciplinary reasons. Swan will miss the next two crucial games against Sydney and North Melbourne. His presence will be sorely missed as he has averaged 39 disposals over the last month. He is generating a lot of clearances and kicking goals every round as well. But that said, I believe Collingwood’s greatest win this year was against Adelaide when Swan was out injured. Players such as Dayne Beams, Steele Sidebottom, Jarryd Blair and Scott Pendlebury all lifted for the game and helped to fill the void.
At the Selection Table
Dane Swan is not the only selection concern for Collingwood this round. Tyson Goldsack has also been ruled out for a fortnight after hurting his ankle in the win against St Kilda last round. This will force Buckley to make at least two changes at the selection table, which is a concern given most of the better sides will now be looking to solidify their line-up before finals.
Chris Tarrant was a late withdrawal last round with back spasms and will be tested ahead of this week’s game. He seems the most logical replacement for Goldsack as he will step straight back into the third tall role, with an ability to help out in defence.
In other positive news, Andrew Krakouer and Brent Macaffer both pulled up strongly from their return games at VFL level. Ben Johnson is also a chance to return to the VFL this round. I feel all three can provide valuable depth to the senior side if they can get their match fitness up.
Alan Didak has also played two VFL games now and is another potential inclusion at senior level this week. Simon Buckley also faces a fitness test to return to the side following a hamstring injury.
Turning the focus back onto Sydney, and John Longmire also faces some selection dilemmas this week. Jude Bolton in particular is the greatest concern after he injured his knee in the win against Carlton last round. He will miss at least a month, and will now struggle to be available for the start of the finals series.
Likely replacements for Bolton include Tony Armstrong or Mitch Morton. Morton is yet to debut for Sydney but has previously been named as an emergency. Sam Reid remains on the sidelines for at least another fortnight leaving a hole up forward.
Focus on Collingwood
My biggest concern for Collingwood at the moment is that the star midfielders are getting plenty of the ball, yet it is not translating on the scoreboard. Last round, Sidebottom, Swan, Pendlebury and Beams all had over 30 possessions, while Dale Thomas was electric with 26 possessions and two goals.
This indicates to me that either too much work is getting left to too few, or the prime midfielders are not damaging enough with the footy. Personally, I feel it is a combination of both. No Collingwood player was clean with the ball in hand last round and the delivery going forward was far from perfect.
However, the Magpies are lacking that really solid spread of goal-kickers that has been the trademark of the side over the past two years. Perhaps the move of Blair, Sidebottom and Beams into the midfield has come at a cost because there is less depth up forward. Ben Sinclair and Jamie Elliott are playing good football, but neither kicked a goal last round. Alex Fasolo is also playing higher up the ground and is having less shots on goal. Perhaps the potential return of Didak, Krakouer, Tarrant and Macaffer will resolve this problem.
On the positive side, Collingwood’s contested footy and work around the clearances significantly improved last week.
Darren Jolly - The big ruckman still looms as one of Collingwood’s most important players in the run home to finals. Playing the lone hand in the ruck, Jolly’s tap-work returned to its best last week and he was able to dominate McEvoy at times. He took 10 marks and six tackles, to go with 21 disposals, two goals and 37 hitouts. It was perhaps Jolly’s best game of the year to date. He faces a very difficult run with the best quality ruckmen looming as opponents in the run home to finals. It starts this week against Shane Mumford who has battled injury issues this year.
Dale Thomas - Daisy really benefitted from his week on the sidelines in round 18 and returned to the side last round full of spring and without any signs of the ankle injury that he suffered against Carlton a month ago. He proved to be a real match winner and was one of the few Collingwood players to be very clean with the ball in hand. He enjoys the big stage and brings real intensity to the side. Buckley is using Thomas in spurts as a lead up forward with some success. Thomas is clever around goal and is also very good at creating goals. He always plays well at ANZ Stadium against Sydney, and may even get a tag this week in the absence of Swan considering he is perhaps Collingwood’s most damaging player when on song.
Chris Dawes - Dawes is slowly returning to some form and has kicked at least a goal a game over the past month. Nonetheless, he still needs to take his game to a new level if Collingwood is to provide a genuine premiership threat in 2012. He is still being asked to shoulder some of the ruck work when Jolly rests and he is doing an admirable job. His two goals against St Kilda were really crucial, and he is pulling down a few more contested marks. Sydney’s defence has been very solid and workmanlike all year. Ted Richards is likely to get the Dawes match up. Richards is a real chance to get the All-Australian centre half back position so Dawes will have his work cut out.
Focus on Sydney
In some regards, the Swans remind me a lot of the Collingwood side of 2010. The midfield is quite young but has incredible depth. The backline is solid and has a lot of attacking run, while the forward line is versatile and possesses numerous options.
Seven Swans players have kicked more than 20 goals, led by Lewis Jetta who has 39. Eleven players in total have kicked at least 10 goals or more. This is a fantastic spread of goal-kickers. The Swans’ ball movement has been terrific, and it has proved impossible to shut down the numerous goal-kicking options.
With Rhyce Shaw, Martin Mattner and Nick Malceski down back, the Swans can be so devastating on the rebound. All players are also capable of playing very tight on their opponent. Alex Johnson and Nick Smith are also playing their roles in defensive positions and shutting down their opponents.
Kieren Jack - Don’t be surprised to see Jack poll very well at the Brownlow this year and also make the All-Australian side. Once just a tagger, Jack is now an outright star midfielder of the competition who is very damaging. He has kicked 22 goals whilst averaging over 24 disposals. He also ranks fifth in the competition for goal assists and third in the competition for inside 50s. This all highlights how effective he is. He has a raking left foot kick that always hits targets. It is also penetrating and easily carries 50 metres. Importantly for Longmire, Jack can be used in a defensive shut down role, but can also hurt his opponent going the other way. He looms as a real threat on Saturday as he may be used head to head against Pendlebury.
Adam Goodes - Goodes missed a large chunk of this season through injury and has made an inconspicuous return to the side over the last month. But he showed some ominous signs against Carlton, particularly early on in the match. He finished with modest statistics of 20 disposals and one goal, but you get the feeling he is gradually getting his confidence back and is due for a massive game sooner or later. He typically plays well against Collingwood, and will be keen to reimpose himself on the competition against one the best sides.
Lewis Jetta - Jetta has been the real highlight for Sydney in my opinion this year. Despite the fact he leads the Swans in the goal-kicking department with 39, I would consider his role in the side more as a wingmen. It is an astonishing return for a player who couldn’t buy a goal in his first year in the AFL. In particular, Jetta has the real ability to totally open the Magpies up and needs to be planned for. Over the past month, we have seen players such as Chris Yarran and Cyril Rioli tear the Magpies to shreds with genuine foot speed. Jetta is as quick as all those players and is scarily having a bigger scoring impact. There are few in the side with enough pace through the middle to run with Jetta. It may be an opportunity for Alan Toovey to move into the midfield to get the job, or Marty Clarke may be recalled to the senior side to play a tagging role. Either way, the Magpies cannot allow Jetta any space on the wide open spaces of ANZ Stadium or he could very quickly turn the result the Swans way.
The Wrap Up
As mentioned, Sydney deserves the right to go into the game as favourites, particularly with the absence of Dane Swan. However, do not underestimate the absence of Jude Bolton who has kicked 20 goals for Sydney and also remains a key midfield rotation. Sam Reid’s absence at centre half forward will also hurt.
Collingwood still remains a bogey side for the Swans.
Last week, we saw Hawthorn struggle against its bogey side, Geelong, and Collingwood was beaten by Hawthorn, who have regularly troubled the Pies, a few weeks ago, so there is no doubt that some sides simply match up better against others.
Nonetheless, this is a very different Sydney model in 2012. It is no longer a defensive shut down side despite the fact that it still possesses quality taggers. The Swans are a very attacking and evenly balanced side, which is reflected by their massive percentage.
The Magpies need to be at the top of their game. They love travelling and will enjoy the road trip to Sydney. Collingwood also has a history of galvanising itself when it is the underdog.
The start will be important. Both sides are good first quarter teams. But you get the feeling that if Sydney can break the game open early, it can put Collingwood away with its huge array of goal-scoring options. Magpies may need to keep the game tight. Despite the fact that Richards and Heath Grundy are proving a very formidable defence, I still feel that Cloke and Dawes would prove too strong if they can get enough opportunity.
It should be an absolute cracker and will be a real test for both sides’ premiership credentials.
By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86
