In 2013, collingwoodfc.com.au has again enlisted the help of David Natoli, aka DaVe86, who has shot to Internet fame for his in-depth Magpie tactical previews.

Since publishing his first report on Nick's Bulletin Board in early 2005, DaVe86 has become a weekly favourite among the passionate online Magpie Army receiving thousands of views for each article.

The articles are lengthy and have been published in their entirety as the club did not want to hinder DaVe86's creativity during the writing process.

The views expressed in DaVe86's previews are solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Collingwood Football Club.

After a two-week layoff, I return to preview the massive round 19 game between Collingwood and Essendon. It will be the first time these two sides have met on a Sunday twilight fixture and the outcome of this match will have a significant effect on the make-up of the top eight.

The Bombers slipped to fourth on the ladder following their loss to Hawthorn last round. They sit only two points clear of Fremantle. Therefore, a loss to the Magpies this weekend could see Essendon drop out of the top four.

For Collingwood, a loss will leave its top eight position vulnerable. With matches against Sydney and Hawthorn to follow, Collingwood needs to win this game to keep a three game buffer from ninth position. Collingwood also needs another big scalp to regain some respect after a lacklustre fortnight.

It has been an explosive week for Essendon off-field. This preview will not attempt to delve into these issues, other than to say that the Bombers have responded to every off-field challenge thrown at them this year. It will be interesting to see whether that spirit has been broken, or whether it will galvanise the team yet again.

As eluded to above, Collingwood also has more than the four points to play for. After losing to Gold Coast and struggling for three quarters against the winless Greater Western Sydney, some football experts this week have written the Magpies off as a serious threat this year. Though I think this is a very premature call, the only way Collingwood can answer its critics is through its on-field effort.

Recent History
These two sides last met in round five this year where the Bombers broke a seven game losing streak against the Magpies. Essendon won the ANZAC day clash convincingly by 46 points.

David Zaharakis was the hero, picking up 34 disposals and kicking four goals. Jobe Watson and Brent Stanton also led from the front with 31 disposals each. Tom Bellchambers was dominant in the ruck with 34 hitouts and two goals, while Jason Winderlich was also prominent with three goals.

For Collingwood, Steele Sidebottom was Collingwood’s highest possession winner with 31 and Swan had 30. Travis Cloke battled manfully with Jake Carlisle booting two goals.

At the Selection Table
A number of key Magpies face fitness tests ahead of the big clash this Sunday. Luke Ball, Darren Jolly, Ben Hudson and Paul Seedsman are all pushing for selection after injury layoffs. The battle between Jolly and Hudson will be particularly interesting considering Jarrod Witts and Brodie Grundy were promising last week in the ruck.

Ben Reid injured his ankle towards the end of last round’s match and will also face scans later this week to determine if he will line up against the Bombers. The extra day’s rest may assist his recovery.

Andrew Krakouer, Alan Didak and Quinten Lynch were all amongst the best in the VFL last week and will also put their hands up for selection.

Turning focus onto Essendon, and all eyes will be on skipper Jobe Watson to see whether he returns. His fate lies with his surgeon who needs to give him the all-clear to play following a broken collarbone.

Others in line for selection include Jason Winderlich, Dustin Fletcher and Stewart Crameri who all face fitness tests. Scott Gumbleton’s form at VFL level has been good and he will put his hand up as well.

Focus on Collingwood
Buckley has a bit of work to do with his side ahead of Sunday’s match. In particular, I feel that the midfield needs tweaking. Despite the fact that Collingwood has dominated uncontested possession and inside 50s over the last two weeks, its forward entries have been poor, and the midfield’s defensive pressure has been worrying.

GWS and Gold Coast were able to counter attack with fluidity and were more efficient than the Magpies going forward. This has left the defence exposed and Collingwood has been too easy to score against. Stoppages have also been an issue.

Against a more experienced opponent, Buckley will be expecting a big response from his midfield. The Magpies need to get on top around the stoppages but I think that they also need to set better structures to prevent Essendon’s run and carry. I feel that too many Collingwood midfielders seem to be getting sucked into the contests, which is allowing too much space for the opposition to break into forward of the play.

Steele Sidebottom – After a lean patch between rounds 11 to 15, Sidebottom has lifted his rating over the last three weeks. This coincides with the return of Dayne Beams who has taken a lot of the burden off Steele. He will enjoy the freedom of not being tagged and will be utilised in a variety of positions. In particular, Buckley has opted to use Sidebottom behind the ball over the past month, which has had some success.

Lachlan Keeffe – After a slow return to the senior side following a long layoff due to a knee reconstruction, Keeffe showed really positive signs last week. He was moved onto the explosive Jeremy Cameron and did a really good honest job after Nathan Brown had conceded four early goals. Cameron worked Keeffe into the ground, but Keeffe stuck to his guns. He still has a fair way to go before returning to his absolute best, but he could prove a really vital player for Buckley as it gives him the freedom to utilise Ben Reid as a forward. He will have a big job this week against the resting Essendon ruckman.

Marley Williams – Marley was rewarded for his efforts this week with a NAB Rising Star nomination. I have made mention in previous articles about Williams but it cannot be underestimated how important he has become to the side. Without Alan Toovey, Marley had really stepped up to become Collingwood’s best shut down defender for small forwards. He is aggressive and never gives up. He also has speed and is quite good in the air for a man of his size. His kicking is still improving but as long as he keeps his focus on shutting down his opponent it will not be a major issue.

Focus on Essendon
The Bombers have developed a really complete side with match winners across every line. The midfield has been bolstered by Brendon Goddard, which in turn has seen players like Brent Stanton, Jake Melksham and Dyson Heppell really flourish.

Nonetheless, the past three rounds have been below par by the Bombers. The absence of Jobe Watson may be the cause of this, or perhaps Essendon is starting to tire. In particular, James Hird is yet to settle his preferred forward line. Questions also remain as to whether Michael Hurley is best used as a forward or defender, or whether the side functions best with two ruckmen and two tall forwards. Gumbleton, Crameri and Joe Daniher have all been in and out of the side, whilst the crumbers in Leroy Jetta and Alwyn Davey cannot quite cement a spot either.

At its best, Essendon is a very exciting team to watch, but is also able to combine team defence with offensive flair. The team defence has been slightly down over the last few rounds and the forward line has struggled at times.

Tom Bellchambers – The ruck combination of Bellchambers and Ryder is quickly becoming one of the most damaging in the AFL. This has particularly been the case over the last month as Bellchambers has been in good goal kicking form (he has kicked 10 goals in the last four games). This fits in nicely with a solid average of 20 hitouts a game over this period. He looms as a real handful for the Magpies on Sunday given his size and ability to play forward. He was influential on ANZAC Day kicking two goals and notching up 32 hitouts. If Jolly or Hudson are unable to pass fitness tests, it will be a huge ask for Witts and Grundy to hold up against Ryder and Bellchambers.

Jake Melksham – Melksham has been one of Essendon’s most improved players this year, playing all but one game and becoming a goal kicking midfielder. His second half of the year in particular has been most promising, regularly picking up over 20 disposals and averaging a goal a game in this time. Melksham’s career stalled a bit in 2012 but he has really established himself in the side now. He rounds out a very solid midfield and is definitely one sneaking under the radar.

Dyson Heppell – Without Jobe Watson, Heppell has become the ‘tagged’ player, such has been his influence in 2013. Now a permanent midfielder, Heppell averages over 25 disposals and four tackles. He is a very hard runner and has made the transition into midfield with ease, which outlines his fitness. Heppell will be looking forward to the return of Watson but he has proved over the last few weeks that he knows how to work through a tag and win his own football.

The Wrap Up
Based on ladder position and form, Essendon deserves to be favourites leading into this game. However, I feel that it is hard to predict how the Bombers will react to the off-field pressures of this week.

I am also expecting a serious spike in Collingwood’s intensity this round given the disappointing results of the past fortnight. Collingwood has a lot to play for and should have a strong line-up on the park this Sunday if a number of key players pass fitness tests.

The stoppages will be a key statistic this weekend. If Bellchambers and Ryder get on top in the ruck, and Essendon in turn wins clearances, then I think the Magpies will struggle to contain Essendon’s run and carry. Collingwood’s ball movement out of defence has also been slow in the past few weeks and the side has been struggling to score when its opponent has put numbers behind the ball. Therefore, getting first use of the footy out of the centre will be vital in preventing its opponent setting up defensive structures.

After two weeks against the expansion sides, I think Buckley and his team will look forward to testing themselves against some of the heavyweights in the forthcoming rounds. It might be just what Collingwood needs to snap back into gear. But it needs the scalp of Essendon this weekend or finals may not be as secure as first thought.

Collingwood by 2 points

By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86