Since publishing his first report on Nick's Bulletin Board in early 2005, DaVe86 has become a weekly favourite among the passionate online Magpie Army receiving thousands of views for each article.
The articles are lengthy and have been published in their entirety as the club did not want to hinder DaVe86's creativity during the writing process.
The views expressed in DaVe86's previews are solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Collingwood Football Club.
Round 15 opens with the AFL’s biggest rivalry – Collingwood and Carlton. This is the second time these two sides have met in 2013 and shapes as one of the most defining games of the season for both teams.
After a disappointing loss to Port Adelaide last round, Collingwood finds itself in eight spot with no guarantee to make finals. A loss this week means the Magpies will only remain one game clear of ninth placed Carlton. Adelaide and West Coast also square off this round and the winner would be only one game behind Collingwood on the ladder.
On the other hand, a win will give Collingwood a three game buffer on Carlton and a two game buffer on either Adelaide or West Coast. It just about cements a finals berth. For Carlton, a finals spot is on the line. It will be near impossible for the Blues to make the top eight if they lose this round.
When these sides last met in round two, the focus was squarely on the coaching showdown between Buckley and Mick Malthouse. Although it is impossible to ignore this rivalry, the real story is that this is a mini-final in terms of the fate of these two clubs in season 2013. Considering both clubs were expected to fare well in 2013, missing finals would be a major disappointment.
Recent History
In round two, the Magpies produced an inspired comeback to run out seventeen point victors. Apart from the fact it was a sweet victory for the club against its former coach and mentor, the win was made more special by the fact that Collingwood lost Darren Jolly very early in the game and was forced to play without a genuine ruckman all match.
The hero of the game was Jamie Elliott who kicked a career high five goals, picking up 20 disposals and taking 10 marks. Quentin Lynch was also a hero, holding up valiantly in the ruck against Matthew Kreuzer and picking up 24 disposals. Dane Swan was Collingwood’s most prolific ball winner with 26 disposals.
For Carlton, Judd and Murphy were also prolific with 25 and 26 disposals respectively. Jeff Garlett, Chris Yarran and Andrew Walker were all damaging up forward kicking three goals each. The small Carlton forwards proved an absolute handful for the Magpies.
At the Selection Table
Both sides will welcome back key players this round.
Starting with Collingwood, and Buckley should welcome back Ben Reid and Darren Jolly. Andrew Krakouer and Clinton Young were both impressive at VFL level and will be firmly on the selection radar.
In other good news, Dayne Beams and Tyson Goldsack should return via the VFL this round and push to make a comeback next round.
Turning the focus onto Carlton, and the Blues look likely to regain two key midfielders in Andrew Carrazzo and Marc Murphy. Murphy’s return will be particularly pleasing given he has only missed one match with a fractured cheekbone. Nick Graham is getting closer to an AFL debut, while Tom Bell would also be on the selection radar.
Focus on Collingwood
The Magpies were outrun by Port Adelaide, and were also outmuscled around the contests. The effort was there, but Collingwood was very sloppy with its ball use and was uncharacteristically fumbly. Far too much focus was on Travis Cloke who was typically outnumbered.
The Power smashed Collingwood in the clearances 39-27, and was +12 in contested possession. Inside 50s also told a story (54-38) which was an indication that the Magpies were just unable to move the ball forward with any fluency considering both sides had similar disposal numbers.
Buckley has asked serious questions of his players this week and has publicly stated that he is expecting a ‘spike’ from his team. If the Magpies are again beaten through the middle, the pressure will firmly be on a number of under-performing players with guys like Beams and Goldsack still to return.
On a positive note, Collingwood is the number one ranked side in the competition for uncontested possessions, compared to Carlton which is ranked 16th. However, the Magpies are ranked 15th in clearances, while Carlton ranks fourth. Therefore, if Collingwood can get some ascendency in the clearances, then it has the outside game to trouble the Blues.
Paul Seedsman – The biggest positive to come out of the loss to Port Adelaide was the form of Seedsman. Seedsman had a staggering 34 possessions and 15 marks and absolutely tried his heart out. He has become a real key across half back all season and has been nominated the teams most improved player. He can take his game to a new level if he can hit the scoreboard with a bit more regularity.
Dane Swan – It was a disappointing game for Swan against Port Adelaide, only picking up 23 disposals which is seven below his season average. Expect a response from Swan this week who has been asked to sacrifice his game to some extent to help out up forward. This is because players such as Goldsack and Krakouer have been out and Lynch’s form has fluctuated. As a forward, Swan is a difficult match-up because he is so hard to push off the ball and is quick off the mark.
Ben Sinclair – Sinclair has turned his season around following his move into defence. After struggling for consistency as a forward, Sinclair has added something to the Collingwood side since returning as a creative half back flanker. His work-rate and tackling pressure has never been questioned, and as a defender he can focus strictly on this side of his game as opposed to hitting the scoreboard. I thought he was one of Collingwood’s better performers against Port Adelaide with 19 disposals and four tackles. Considering Carlton’s strength is its dangerous small forwards, Sinclair will be given a tough match-up against either Garlett or Betts. With Alan Toovey out of the side, Sinclair has a real opportunity to play some consistent footy and forge a name for himself in defence.
Focus on Carlton
It has been a disappointing season for Carlton considering it has been competitive in every match it has played yet has only managed six wins. The Blues troubled Sydney last week at the SCG, but were ultimately overrun by 22 points.
Under Mick Malthouse, the Blues have changed their game significantly. It was a slow start to the year, but Carlton has gradually improved and is looking much more comfortable with its game plan. You get the feeling that it will eventually click for Carlton, but 2013 may not be its year.
A lot of reliance has been placed on Jarrad Waite up forward given the fact that Betts has been quiet all season and Garlett has not kicked a goal in his last three games. Andrew Walker has also reinvented himself as a defender, and while Levi Casboult has been serviceable, he has not kicked many goals.
Carlton has the foot skills to expose Collingwood, but needs a greater output from Yarran, Betts and Garlett. Murphy’s potential return will bolster the midfield.
Chris Yarran – Yarran was banished to the VFL after playing as the sub against Essendon. He returned to the side last week against Sydney and was given the substitute vest again. He had a greater impact when coming onto the field in the third quarter, immediately setting up a Bryce Gibbs goal. He only managed five disposals, but Malthouse would be pleased with his seven tackles. Yarran’s speed will be a huge concern for Collingwood, and this is his real chance to get season 2013 back on track.
Bryce Gibbs – After a mid-year injury which saw him miss four rounds, Gibbs has returned to the side in terrific fashion. His past three rounds in particular have been really good, picking up 26, 28 and 26 disposals respectively. He has also laid nine, eight and eight tackles which would please his coach. The return of Murphy and Carrazzo should help Gibbs, but I still think Buckley will opt to use a tagger such as Brent Macaffer on him this round.
Matthew Kreuzer – Kreuzer was disappointing in round two considering he should’ve dominated following the Jolly injury. He was dominant in the ruck with 34 hitouts and really gave his midfield first use, however he was beaten by Lynch around the ground. Nonetheless, Kreuzer’s ruckwork this year has been terrific, with his last month particularly good averaging 36 hitouts and 13 possessions. He has only kicked four goals this season which would disappoint Blues fans, and this is the main area of his game that I feel he needs to work on.
The Wrap Up
It is going to be a cold Friday night, but a bumper crowd is expected for a do or die match between the game’s two biggest rivals.
Carlton always matches up well against Collingwood, but I am expecting a big response from the Magpies this week after last round’s disappointment. The injury list remains a concern for the Magpies, which is compounded by the fact that Carlton is at relatively full strength.
The midfield battle will be very telling considering both forward lines have struggled to fire all season. If Collingwood can give Cloke some better service, he looms as the difference. The same could potentially be said for Jarrad Waite who typically likes the big stage and has been in relatively good form.
Carlton has more foot speed and has been a better stoppage side this season, so Collingwood’s midfield needs to win contested possession and out-tackle its opponent.
Expect a high intensity match and a finals like atmosphere.
By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86
