Collingwood is backing up from a terrific yet bruising victory against West Coast, while Sydney is fresh from a week’s break after earning a bye following its Qualifying Final victory against Adelaide.
Watch the final minutes of Collingwood's thrilling eight-point win over Sydney in round 20.
In some regards, Sydney will be advantaged with the weeks rest to prepare for this game. On the other hand, Collingwood played some of its best football against West Coast last week and goes into this game with momentum.
The Magpies also have the added confidence of knowing they have beaten the Swans in the past eleven encounters, including the last seven at ANZ Stadium.
Most games have been very competitive, yet Collingwood has always found a way to get over the line. Collingwood is definitely Sydney’s bogey team. The two sides have not met in a final since 2007.
In my opinion, recent history counts for very little considering that this is a very new Sydney side playing a different brand of football under John Longmire.
The Magpies have only won the past two games by a combined total of 14 points, so the Swans are getting closer to breaking the losing streak. Nonetheless, the belief Collingwood has against Sydney is a considerable advantage.
Collingwood’s preparation for this game will be tailored this week to cater for John McCarthy’s funeral on Thursday. The majority of the side will attend the funeral in the morning and fly to Sydney in the afternoon. It is a difficult preparation for a big game for Collingwood and many will be very interested to see how the players handle the emotional situation.
A quick mention also to Jude Bolton who plays his 300th game for the Swans.
At the Selection Table
All eyes will be on the availability of Chris Dawes and Alan Didak who face fitness tests following injuries in the Semi-Final. Dawes was hampered towards the end of the game but trained strongly on Wednesday, while as Didak was subbed at three quarter time with calf tightness and did not train during Collingwood’s main session.
Dawes, in particular, is very important to Collingwood’s structure. Nick Maxwell assisted in the ruck against Essendon in round 23 but is also out through suspension. I believe Buckley’s only real alternative to Dawes is Cameron Wood, who could play as the main ruckman and allow Darren Jolly to spend more time forward.
With Shane Mumford and Mike Pyke in good form, it will be important for Collingwood to have a strong ruck division and also have a second tall target up forward to hold the Sydney defence accountable.
Turning the focus onto Sydney, and the main injury concern is Ben McGlynn. He has been ruled out of the game with a hamstring injury. If the Swans win, he may be an outside chance to play in the Grand Final. Heath Grundy returns from a week’s suspension and solidifies the Sydney defence.
The return of Grundy may mean the Lewis Roberts-Thomson is asked to go back into the forward line, or he will help assist to cover Travis Cloke at the other end of the ground.
Both sides will have a few key inclusions who missed the round 20 encounter. Jude Bolton and Sam Reid will be in the side for the Swans and Dane Swan, Ben Johnson, Tyson Goldsack and Andrew Krakouer are back in the side for the Pies (Dale Thomas was also subbed out of the game early with a corked thigh).
The Collingwood Forward Line
Collingwood’s attack has looked much more potent over the last month since the return of players such as Didak and Krakouer. Goldsack was also important last week with 15 possessions, a goal and eight tackles. When you add Alex Fasolo to the mix, the forward line has a more dangerous feel about it.
It was also interesting to see Jarryd Blair move forward last round to play a defensive forward role on Shannon Hurn. It is a role I think we might see him play more throughout the finals and he may even move onto Rhyce Shaw or Nick Malceski this week.
The Magpies forwards need to be on song this week as Sydney has a very effective defensive set-up and works well as a unit. Ted Richards and Grundy work well as a team, while Martin Mattner, Shaw, Malceski and Nick Smith provide great rebound. When Collingwood beat the Swans in round 20, it made the Sydney defenders accountable. Chris Tarrant was even pushed forward to cause a few unexpected headaches for the Swans defence.
Collingwood’s famed forward pressure was in full effect last week and the tackling and intensity was as high as it has been all year. It is important that it is maintained against Sydney this week.
Travis Cloke v Ted Richards - Cloke had a quieter game last round against West Coast and was well held by Eric McKenzie. However, he still provided a key target and his presence was influential. It is clear Cloke’s confidence is back after 11 goals in his previous two games. He looms as the key for Collingwood on Friday night, especially if Dawes is unavailable. Ted Richards, on the other hand, will also have his confidence up after his debut inclusion in the All-Australian team on Monday. Richards has had a terrific season.
Andrew Krakouer v Nick Smith - Krakouer has made such a big difference to the Collingwood forward line since his return. He is not dominating games, but he is creating so many opportunities and his skills are so good. Smith is Sydney’s best lock down defender and will either get the job on Krakouer or Didak.
X Factor - Alex Fasolo
I have been so impressed with Fasolo’s efficiency in the finals series so far. Every disposal he has hits a target. However he was quiet last week with nine disposals and the team needs him to lift on the big stage this weekend.
The Centreline
Both sides possess such deep midfields. Collingwood’s on paper has the star power, but the Swans have been disciplined and highly effective all year.
The Collingwood midfield was criticised after the Hawthorn loss for not having a scoreboard impact. The critics were answered against West Coast last week with Dayne Beams, Scott Pendlebury, Swan and Thomas all kicking goals.
Dayne Beams v Kieren Jack - I think these two Brownlow Medal fancies will square off against each other on Friday night, with Jack perhaps doing a shut down job on the in-form Collingwood midfielder. Beams earned his first All-Australian selection this week and is coming off a 30 possession game despite having a heavy tag by Scott Selwood. Jack can consider himself unlucky not to earn All-Australian selection but looms as a key player for the Swans this weekend. He may have to sacrifice his game to some extent this round to curtail one of Collingwood’s prime midfielders.
Scott Pendlebury v Josh Kennedy - Both players were named on the All-Australian bench on Monday night and could find themselves head-to-head on Friday night. Pendlebury returned to his best form against West Coast last Saturday and looked at his silky smooth best. Josh Kennedy on the other hand looms as Collingwood’s biggest threat. He had 40 disposals and kicked a goal in round 20 when these sides last met, and is also fresh off a 35 disposal and one goal game in the Qualifying Final against Adelaide. Whoever finds themselves matched up to Kennedy needs to be very cautious as he is one player that could give the Swans the edge in the very even midfield battle.
Ryan O’Keefe v Sharrod Wellingham - O’Keefe is the most dangerous of the Sydney midfielders as he is a ball magnet, has efficient disposal and kicks goals. He had 37 disposals and eight tackles against Adelaide and also had 28 disposals against Collingwood in round 20. Wellingham went back into a tagging role against Daniel Kerr last week and player one of his better games this season. I think Wellingham should go back into the centre this round and play on a dangerous Sydney mid. O’Keefe should be one of the first players targeted by the Collingwood midfield if it wants to keep the game in close and stop the Sydney ball movement.
Dane Swan v Jarrad McVeigh - Swan was at his best last week with 29 disposals and two goals and looms as a real game-breaker on Friday night. If Kieren Jack takes Beams, it may leave McVeigh to take the job on Swan.
Darren Jolly v Shane Mumford - Jolly was terrific last round against Dean Cox and Nick Naitanui, pretty much taking on both on his own and breaking even with them. Although Jolly doesn’t necessarily dominate, he always ensures a contest and continues to push forward. His job is no easier this week against Shane Mumford who has worked his way into the season and is now in terrific form. If Dawes is absent, Jolly may be forced to play on both Pyke and Mumford and shoulder 100 per cent of the ruck duties.
X Factor - Dale Thomas
It only took seven minutes for Dale Thomas to totally turn the game and the season around for Collingwood last round when he kicked three consecutive goals. He loves playing Sydney, and he also loves the big stage.
X Factor - Lewis Jetta
Jetta was another player unlucky to miss the All-Australian side on Monday night. His quiet last month of the year may have cost him selection. He kicked two goals in the Qualifying Final and could break the game right open if the Magpies are not cautious of him. Wellingham may get the tagging job if he does not go to O’Keefe, or he could go head-to-head on a wing against Thomas. He has kicked 42 goals so far this season in a real breakout year for him.
The Sydney Forward Line
The Swans don’t possess the scariest forward line on paper, but it is balanced and possesses a number of avenues to goal. The Swans get a lot of goals from their midfield, but also have tall targets to kick to.
Last round, Collingwood’s defence looked as good as it has all year. It was right on top of West Coast’s tall forward line and only conceded 60 points. It was aided by a disciplined midfield but was well structured and had a greater willingness to take risks coming off the backline.
Sam Reid v Ben Reid - A key match-up for the game will be the brother on brother contest. Sam Reid has had something of a breakout season and has provided a strong marking target. Ben Reid on the other hand was best on ground last round, taking 10 marks and also shutting down Josh Kennedy.
Adam Goodes v Chris Tarrant - Goodes returned to the Sydney side mid-year from injury but hasn’t regained his best touch. However, he kicked three goals against Adelaide and looks set to explode on the big finals stage. Chris Tarrant began slowly last week but warmed up as the game wore on. Tarrant knows that a loss means the end of his career now that he has announced his retirement. He is still a terrific lock down defender and needs to shut Goodes out of the game on Friday night.
Craig Bird v Heath Shaw - Bird is likely to do the forward tag role on Heath Shaw this round. He is a dangerous small forward and has a good goal sense, with an ability to play through the middle as well. Heath Shaw on the other hand is one of Collingwood’s best big-game players and loves the finals stage. His form has been a bit patchy of late, but the Swans will be very keen to limit his run off half back.
X Factor - Jude Bolton
Playing his 300th game in a big final, Bolton is likely to spend more time in the midfield, but will also provide a goal-scoring option up forward and look to make a Collingwood defender accountable. Bolton is the heart and soul of the Sydney side and will be unrelenting with his attack on the ball. Expect a big game from him.
The Wrap Up
So far the weather forecast says we are in for a fine day and a warmish night. I think this honestly suits the Swans as their wet weather form has been inconsistent over the past few years. Sydney’s ball movement has been quite slick this year and will look to open the game up. Collingwood, on the other hand, will look to keep the game tight, I think, just as it did against West Coast and try to get the intensity at a similar level.
My biggest concern for Collingwood this round is how the side handles the funeral of John McCarthy and whether it can keep its focus on Friday’s final. It is a real mixture of emotions this week and will no doubt have an impact on the team’s psyche before the game.
On the other hand, Collingwood’s form has built beautifully and the side seems to have hit its peak at the right time of the year. Sydney is an extremely consistent side and is always difficult to beat. If the Magpies are unable to bring the same level of intensity as they did last weekend, the Swans have the balance all over the field to win this game.
It is always a tight battle when these two sides play. With a Grand Final spot on the line, this should be an unrelenting and physical battle.
By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86
