In 2016, David Natoli, aka DaVe86, returns to Collingwood Media to file his famous, in-depth tactical match previews.

Since publishing his first report on Nick's Bulletin Board in early 2005, DaVe86 has become a weekly favourite among the passionate online Magpie Army receiving thousands of views for each article.

The articles are lengthy and have been published in their entirety as the club did not want to hinder DaVe86's creativity during the writing process.

The views expressed in DaVe86's previews are solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Collingwood Football Club.

In round 16, Collingwood heads north to Spotless Stadium to face the in form Greater Western Sydney. It’s a daunting task, made even more challenging by the fact that GWS are fresh from its mid-season bye and have an opportunity to cement a top two position with a victory.

Collingwood has won its previous two games since its bye, so is carrying a bit of momentum into this game. The Magpies haven’t played the most attractive football in the past fortnight but have defended really well and their work rate has been good. Having already beaten Geelong earlier in the year, the Magpies will look forward to the opportunity to play another top four side, and should be primed for this contest.

The Giants are undoubtedly the surprise packet of 2016. Not many would have tipped them to make the top four at the beginning of the year, but that result is looking increasingly likely as each week goes by. They have a really friendly draw on the run home and will likely go into each game from this point on as favourites. The Giants also haven’t lost a game at home yet this year, so will be looking to keep that record intact. Prior to this season, the Giants have never won more than ten games in a season. That record could be broken this week as they search for their eleventh win.

There will obviously be a bit of feeling in this game as well considering it is the first time Adam Treloar will face his old side. There will surely be a few GWS players keen to put the heat on him. It is still also quite weird to see Heath Shaw in a GWS guernsey. Taylor Adams will also return from injury to face his old club. I think there’s definitely some tension between these two sides after some difficult trade negotiations in recent years.

Without question, the Giants have a lot to play for this week. With such an even top eight, every game from here on in will be crucial for their top four ambitions. But it’s also a big game for Collingwood. The Magpies have named one of their strongest line-ups this week, and will also be keen to notch up a third straight victory.

Recent History
The Giants are yet to beat Collingwood in all of the previous four encounters. These sides last met at the MCG in round 11 last year, where it was the Magpies who were convincing 42-point victors. Jack Crisp polled the three Brownlow votes with 28 disposals and two goals, while Dane Swan polled two votes with his usual 30 disposals. Travis Cloke rounded out the votes with five goals. Taylor Adams was unlucky not to poll with 36 disposals. For the visitors, Dylan Shiel was everywhere with 34 disposals, while Adam Treloar had 29 disposals.

At the Selection Table
Despite having won its previous two games, Collingwood has made five changes ahead of this week’s game. Taylor Adams and Alex Fasolo both passed fitness tests on Thursday and have been named to play for the first time since injuring themselves in round 10. Their return to the side is a significant boost, and it is fair to say that this is the best-looking Collingwood side on paper so far this season. Injuries will not be an excuse this round.

Also returning to the side is Jesse White, whose performance was described as ‘huge’ by VFL coach Dale Tapping last week. Jonathon Marsh has also recovered from a calf complaint, while Brent Macaffer also has received a recall after solid VFL form.

Making way for these players are Tyson Goldsack, Levi Greenwood, Mason Cox, Tom Phillips and Marley Williams. Greenwood and Cox are being managed, and the other three omissions can consider themselves unlucky to be dropped this week considering they were all solid in Collingwood’s win last week.

The Giants have made four changes ahead of this week’s game. With Phil Davis still out of the side, the Giants are lacking key position defenders. Adam Tomlinson has come back into the side and will likely fill a hole down back, as will Adam Kennedy who has also been recalled. Devon Smith also returns to the side, as does Jack Steele. Ryan Griffen and Nathan Wilson, however, are both out of the side with injury, while Matt Buntine and Matthew Kennedy have been omitted.

Focus on Collingwood
Most Collingwood supporters will take a win against Carlton no matter how it comes. But it is fair to say that the manner of Collingwood’s victory last week was less than convincing. The biggest concern remains the setup of the forward line and the errant ball movement going forward. At times, the Magpies were stagnant across half back, and just couldn’t turn defence into attack with any fluidity.

That said, it has been pleasing to see how well Collingwood has defended in the past fortnight. The Magpies have only conceded 37 and 45 points respectively, and the desperation shown deep in defence has been back to its absolute best. This is largely due to the fact that Collingwood’s defence has had some continuity in terms of player availability, and a more settled defensive unit has resulted in more consistent performances.

If Collingwood is to match the Giants this week, then the defensive structures will need to be as tight as possible. But the Magpies are going to also need to score more regularly as it is impossible to hold this talented GWS outfit down for too long.

The other area Collingwood needs to address this week is clearances. The Giants are ranked first in the league in this area, while the Magpies are ranked last. The Giants are so dangerous, and the Magpies cannot afford to allow their opponents first use of the ball.

Player Focus
Travis Cloke – Cloke is still far from his absolute best, but his work rate has been good over the past fortnight. Although he didn’t kick a goal last week, he presented high up the field and took nine important marks. I get the feeling that a big game is just around the corner, and it might simply be an early goal that sparks the big man into form. He kicked five goals when these sides last met, and the Giants are undermanned in key defensive stocks. If ever the Magpies need their power forward to lift, it is this week.

Adam Treloar – It’s a big game for Treloar coming up against his old side this week. Apart from Patrick Dangerfield, Treloar was the other big name signing of the off-season, and Collingwood paid a hefty price for him. Initially, many thought the Magpies overpaid. But not many people would be saying that now, as Treloar is having a stellar season. He was tagged last week and his influence was limited to 23 disposals. But this meant that captain Scott Pendlebury enjoyed freedom and he had a terrific 34-disposal game. Treloar is likely to get the Stephen Coniglio tag this week, and it will be interesting to see how he deals with the attention.

Ben Sinclair – After multiple concussions earlier in the season, Sinclair finally seems to have settled his spot in the side. He was close to Collingwood’s best last week, with 24 disposals off half back and 4 inside 50s. He was one of the only players willing to take the game on, and he was also extremely important defensively with some terrific smothers, spoils and tackles. Let’s hope Sinclair can stay on top of his injury issues, as he adds a nice dimension to Collingwood’s defence.

Focus on Greater Western Sydney
In many ways, the Giants are a scary prospect to play against. Just a quick glance over their reserves side shows how much talent is playing in the NEAFL, let alone the talent in the senior side. While the Giants have some of the best young talent in the land, they are well led by senior players such as Shane Mumford, Ryan Griffen, Callan Ward, Tom Scully, Heath Shaw and Steve Johnson. They are an attacking side and are absolutely ruthless at the contests. This is reflected by the fact that the Giants are ranked first in the competition for clearances.

A big area of improvement this year has been the half back line. Heath Shaw is in All-Australian form, but the most pleasing thing has been the development of younger players like Nathan Wilson and Zac Williams. This has made the Giants one of the most attacking sides off half back, with so much run and carry. Collingwood will challenge the Giants with its tall forwards considering the Giants are missing some key position defenders. But if the Magpies are unable to gain the advantage in the air, then the Giants will be a difficult team to contain at ground level.

The Giants also possess a very potent forward line. Ranked second in the competition for points per game, the Giants are a very difficult side to contain. The addition of Steve Johnson to the side and the red hot form of Toby Greene has added real flexibility to the forward line. Rory Lobbe, Jonathon Patton and Jeremy Cameron are also three extremely dangerous talls and would stretch any defence.

Player Focus – Greater Western Sydney
Heath Shaw – Shaw would be a lock in the All-Australian side right now, and is the leader of the GWS defence. His form has been so strong that Carlton elected to tag him off half back in the Giants last match before the bye. While Shaw was kept relatively quiet, others were able to step up around him. It will be interesting to see whether Collingwood employs similar tactics to combat Shaw this week. Perhaps his old mate Brent Macaffer might be given this role. Shaw is ranked first in the competition for kicks and second for marks. So much play is created through Shaw, and he will be a massive factor in this game.

Toby Greene – With such a deep midfield, Greene’s position in the side was looking vulnerable heading into this season. But he has been recast as a high half forward and he is playing this role to devastating effect. He has kicked 28 goals this season, while still averaging 22 disposals a game. He obviously has a huge work rate so he is a very difficult opponent to match-up on. He gets a lot of his goals by pushing high up the field, then working back hard to get the loose ball over the top.

Stephen Coniglio – Coniglio is another high draft pick whose spot in the side was somewhat vulnerable heading into this season. But he has locked down his spot playing as a tagger, and he would well be in All-Australian calculations right now. Despite playing on the opposition’s best midfielder, Coniglio is still averaging 28 disposals and has kicked 10 goals for the year. He’ll likely match up on Adam Treloar this week in a battle which could get fiery at times.

The Wrap Up
The Giants will head into this match as overwhelming favourites and will be very difficult to beat on their home deck. But Collingwood has named its strongest line-up of the year, and will be feeling pretty confident after two consecutive victories.

The decisive factor in this game will be clearances. The Giants are the best team in the competition in this area, while Collingwood is the worst. If this differential translates into Saturday’s game, then the Giants will be basically impossible to shut down. Collingwood has a strong midfield as well, so it’s time it steps up and matches the Giants in this area.

The other big focus for me in this game is the battle in Collingwood’s forward line. The Magpies will stretch the GWS defence for height, but the Magpies will find it very difficult to lock the ball inside 50 with guys like Heath Shaw and Zac Williams to run the ball out. Collingwood’s talls need to lift. The addition of Alex Fasolo to the forward line will also make a huge difference.

Based on last week’s form, it is hard to see Collingwood matching the Giants this week. But I also thought similar heading into the Geelong game earlier in the year, and we saw how good the Magpies were in that match. If Collingwood can bring a similar intensity, and take a few more risks with its ball movement, then an upset may be on the cards.

By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86