8. Collingwood
40 points (10 wins, eight losses) 105.1 per cent
Sunday's stirring win over Port Adelaide, a favourable fixture and Adelaide's shock loss to West Coast has the Pies in the box seat to claim a finals berth that appeared in serious doubt just a week ago. A win over the Eagles in round 20 would make them near-certainties, with clashes against Lions and Giants to follow. It's hard to see them beating the Hawks in the final round but with some good form, that result might not affect their top-eight chances.
Vote for your top three players from Collingwood's six-point win in the Magpie Army Player of the Year Award.
The run home
Rd 20: West Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 21: Brisbane Lions at the MCG
Rd 22: Greater Western Sydney at Spotless Stadium
Rd 23: Hawthorn at the MCG
And the rest of the competition...
1. Hawthorn
56 points (14 wins, four losses) 141.1 per cent
Sunday's solid win over the Bulldogs has boosted the Hawks' percentage and left them in a strong position to finish in the top two. However, they will be tested in the final three rounds of the season. The premiers should comfortably account for Melbourne next week, but their bid for a home qualifying final will likely be decided by the following clashes with Fremantle and Geelong. The Magpies have been the Hawks' whipping boys in recent times but may present another stiff challenge in round 23.
The run home:
Rd 20: Melbourne at the MCG
Rd 21: Fremantle at Patersons Stadium
Rd 22: Geelong at the MCG
Rd 23: Collingwood at the MCG
2. Sydney Swans
56 points (14 wins, four losses) 138.8 per cent
Friday night's wasn't a vintage performance by the Swans at the SCG, and they will hope to regain star forward Lance Franklin for next week's clash against Port Adelaide after he missed the win over the Bombers with general soreness. Despite being edged out of top spot by the Hawks on percentage, the Swans remain in pole position for a top-two finish. Saturday night's trip to Adelaide is their toughest remaining assignment, with should-win clashes against the Saints, Bulldogs and Richmond leading into the finals. Their aim of a double chance is further aided by the fact Hawthorn, Geelong and Fremantle all face each other before the finals.
The run home:
Rd 20: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Rd 21: St Kilda at the SCG
Rd 22: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Richmond at ANZ Stadium
3. Geelong
56 points (14 wins, four losses) 113.7 per cent
On Saturday night the Cats became the first top-four side not to fall victim to the inconsistent Kangaroos, but their relatively low percentage effectively leaves them a game behind the Sydney Swans and Hawthorn in the top-two race. Games against Fremantle, Carlton and Hawthorn makes for a testing final month, before what should be a tune-up on home turf against the Brisbane Lions in round 23. Port Adelaide's recent slump leaves the Cats in the box seat for a top-four finish.
The run home:
Rd 20: Fremantle at Simonds Stadium
Rd 21: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Hawthorn at the MCG
Rd 23: Brisbane Lions at Simonds Stadium
4. Fremantle
52 points (13 wins, five losses) 131.5 per cent
Already a game behind the Swans, Hawks and Cats, Ross Lyon's men were lucky to come away with a win against a plucky Carlton outfit at Paterson Stadium on Thursday night. They can afford no more slip-ups if they want to keep their top two chances alive, but the fixture means the future is in the Dockers' hands. Beat Geelong (away) and Hawthorn (home) and they can leapfrog both teams and secure the double chance.
The run home:
Rd 20: Geelong at Simonds Stadium
Rd 21: Hawthorn at Patersons Stadium
Rd 22: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Rd 23: Port Adelaide at Patersons Stadium
5. Port Adelaide
48 points (12 wins, six losses) 130.2 per cent
Sunday's loss to Collingwood has put the Power's top-four hopes in serious jeopardy, leaving them two games behind the top three and a game behind Freo in fourth. Port likely needs to win three of its remaining four games - and get a decent percentage boost - to catch the fourth-placed Dockers. That means knocking off either the Swans at Adelaide Oval in round 20 or Fremantle in round 23, and accounting for both Gold Coast (away) and Carlton (home). A home elimination final in week one looks their best bet at this stage.
The run home:
Rd 20: Sydney Swans at Adelaide Oval
Rd 21: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium
Rd 22: Carlton at Adelaide Oval
Rd 23: Fremantle at Patersons Stadium
6. North Melbourne
40 points (10 wins, eight losses) 109.3 per cent
Consecutive losses to Carlton and Geelong have left the Roos with only a mathematical chance of finishing in the top four. Form issues aside, a finals berth remains more likely than not thanks to their relatively easy run home. Indifferent form against some of the lower-ranked sides this year will concern the Kangas as they prepare to face GWS, the Western Bulldogs and Melbourne in the last month. A round-22 clash against Adelaide in Hobart shapes as a turning point in the race to September.
The run home:
Rd 20: Greater Western Sydney at Startrack Oval
Rd 21: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Adelaide at Blundstone Arena
Rd 23: Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
7. Essendon
40 points (10 wins, eight losses) 107.7 per cent
Bomber fans would normally welcome four clashes against bottom eight-sides, but the reality is that none of Essendon's remaining games are easy. Friday night's meeting with the suddenly in-contention Richmond shapes as an old-fashioned blockbuster. Resurgent West Coast will pose problems in round 21, while old foes Carlton are also showing signs of form and are unlikely to be easybeats in their season-closer.
The run home:
Rd 20: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 21: West Coast at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Gold Coast at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Carlton at the MCG
9. Gold Coast
40 points (10 wins, eight losses) 99.5 per cent
Saturday night's win over St Kilda, the club's maiden victory without skipper Gary Ablett, may have just steadied the ship after last week's dismal loss to the Brisbane Lions. Percentage, along with confidence, has been the young Suns' problem, and with Adelaide, Collingwood and now West Coast and Richmond nipping at their heels, the Suns will probablu need to win at least three of their remaining four games to reach the finals. Two home games against a floundering Port Adelaide and West Coast may help their cause, but Carlton at Etihad Stadium will be a tricky assignment and Essendon at the same venue, even tougher.
The run home:
Rd 20: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Port Adelaide at Metricon Stadium
Rd 22: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: West Coast at Metricon Stadium
10. Adelaide
36 points (nine wins, nine losses) 106.3 per cent
The Crows' stay in the top eight proved short-lived, and Brenton Sanderson's men must now contemplate winning all four of their remaining matches to have a chance of earning their place in September. On paper the clashes with the Lions, Richmond and St Kilda shape as victories, but after Saturday's poor performance against the Eagles, nothing is guaranteed.
The run home:
Rd 20: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Rd 21: Richmond at Adelaide Oval
Rd 22: North Melbourne at Blundstone Oval
Rd 23: St Kilda at Adelaide Oval
11. West Coast
32 points (eight wins, 10 losses) 108.3 per cent
Saturday's upset win over Adelaide keeps the Eagles' slim finals hopes alive. Helping their chances of an unlikely finals surge is the fact that two of their remaining matches are against teams in contention for the lower spots in the eight. Beat Essendon and Gold Coast and West Coast will close the gap on those teams to four points. A superior percentage works in the Eagles' favour if they can win all four remaining games.
The run home:
Rd 20: Collingwood at Patersons Stadium
Rd 21: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Melbourne at Patersons Stadium
Rd 23: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium
12. Richmond
32 points (eight wins, 10 losses) 103.1 per cent
Five straight wins have given the Tigers' season an unexpected air of respectability. The Tigers can, mathematically, make the finals by winning only three of their remaining games. In fact, they could drop one more match and still finish as high as sixth. In a world of realistic results, to give themselves any chance the Tigers must finish August unbeaten. Upcoming meetings with Essendon and Adelaide make that scenario unlikely. A round 23 road trip to face the Swans makes it almost impossible.
The run home:
Rd 20: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 21: Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Rd 22: St Kilda at the MCG
Rd 23: Sydney Swans at ANZ Stadium
