Since publishing his first report on Nick's Bulletin Board in early 2005, DaVe86 has become a weekly favourite among the passionate online Magpie Army receiving thousands of views for each article.
The articles are lengthy and have been published in their entirety as the club did not want to hinder DaVe86's creativity during the writing process.
The views expressed in DaVe86's previews are solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Collingwood Football Club.
With only three rounds left in the home and away season, and with every position in the top eight still yet to be secured, we are set for a really exciting finish to the 2012 season.
Collingwood had one of its best wins for the season last round against top of the ladder Sydney. The win was made so special considering the absence of Dane Swan, and with the early injury to Dale Thomas adding to the Magpies woes.
Following the win, my thoughts immediately turned to the difficulty in backing up the week after such a physical battle.
However, the Magpies’ opponent this week North Melbourne had an equally as physical match against Essendon that has come at a very heavy price considering three frontline players received injuries. Both Leigh Adams and Daniel Wells came off in the first quarter, leaving the Kangaroos a player short on rotations. Nathan Grima also experienced a hamstring complaint in the last quarter leaving only one interchange rotation.
The fact that both sides were able to come away with a win showed a lot of heart. North Melbourne in particular has turned its season around winning eight of its past nine matches. The Kangaroos sit in sixth place; yet still have a real battle on their hands to solidify a top eight position. Collingwood now sits equal top of the ladder, but is still a win away from securing a top four spot. A home final is also up for grabs if the Magpies can win the last three games.
So the impressive wins of last round count for little if both sides cannot sustain their form in the run home to finals. The Magpies have won their previous five encounters against the Kangaroos by an average margin of over 80 points. But this is a new North Melbourne side, which is playing with renewed confidence.
At the Selection Table
Collingwood has confirmed that Dale Thomas should be all right to play this Saturday night after sustaining a corked thigh last round.
In further good news, Ben Johnson, Brent Macaffer and Andrew Krakouer all put in solid performances in the VFL last round. Dane Swan won’t join all three in the VFL this week as he serves his final week of a club imposed sanction.
Tyson Goldsack remains on the sidelines for another week, but Simon Buckley will attempt to prove his fitness as he recovers from a hamstring injury.
North Melbourne has a difficult week at the selection table given the injuries to Grima, Wells and Adams. Grima and Wells could return after a week, but Adams has been ruled out for the year as he undergoes a shoulder reconstruction.
In more positive news, Jack Ziebell and Lindsay Thomas both return from suspension and will help bolster the midfield in the absence of Adams and Wells. Luke Delaney is the likely replacement for Grima. Levi Greenwood is also on the cusp of selection after impressing in the VFL.
Focus on Collingwood
The Magpies returned to their best with their backs against the wall last round. It was a tough man-on-man contest and the forward line stood up in difficult conditions for big men. It was a pleasure to see a man-on-man style of game after a month of free-flowing football.
Travis Cloke had a quiet game, but kicked three crucial goals and set up another. It may be the impetus for him to regain his confidence. The midfield also worked incredibly hard in Swan and Thomas’ absence and was incredibly disciplined. Darren Jolly was also terrific against Mumford and was the dominant ruckman on the ground despite copping a knock to his back in the opening half.
I am hoping to see much of the same from the Magpies this week. North Melbourne is a very attacking and quick side that takes a lot of risks. Collingwood has to shut the game down and play accountable football. The forward pressure needs to be switched on and the Magpies need to win stoppages. North Melbourne sets up very aggressively from stoppages meaning they can score quickly but can also be scored quickly against.
Ben Reid - Reid has had a few niggling injuries this year but was a brick wall in defence last round. He reads the play so well and always seems to be in the right place at the right time. He did the job on Adam Goodes last round whilst notching up 20 disposals along the way. North Melbourne has three genuinely good talls up forward and Reid is likely to get the job on Drew Petrie this round who is runner up to the Coleman medal at this stage.
Dayne Beams - I am running out of superlatives to describe the season Dayne Beams is having. He has been incredible in the absence of Luke Ball. Last round, however, he pretty much filled the void of both Ball and Swan as he picked up 34 disposals and kicked 3 fantastic goals. Beams has become Collingwood’s most damaging player, which says a lot considering he plays alongside Swan, Thomas and Scott Pendlebury. He would be my first tagged player if I were coaching North Melbourne this round.
Paul Seedsman - The most pleasing part of season 2012 has been the fact that young players have been able to fill the void when senior players are unavailable. Against Sydney, Seedsman had his best game for Collingwood and may be close to cementing his spot on the verge of finals. He picked up 20 disposals and was very clean with the football. He also kicked a very important goal. Those who watched Seedsman in the VFL towards the end of last year, and also throughout pre-season training, would have known he was capable of breaking into the senior side. He has taken a while to adjust to the speed of AFL football, but he is getting better and better with every game he plays.
X Factor - Alan Didak
It was far from a dominant return from Didak, picking up 15 possessions and kicking a goal, but he was a valuable addition to the side and could be the missing link in the lead up to finals. In a scrappy game, Didak added class and polish. He was asked to come onto the ground a lot sooner than was anticipated following the injury to Thomas, and match fitness was always going to be an issue. However, he will be better for the run and will now look to build his form over the remaining few rounds.
Focus on North Melbourne
The Kangaroos are a very exciting team to watch in full flight. They break the lines and move the ball at breakneck speed. They have plenty of run off half back and are willing to take the game on, which has proved very effective over the past two months. If the ladder was limited to the last ten rounds, the Kangaroos would be sitting in first place.
The game plan has held up against good sides such as Adelaide and Geelong. It was also sustainable in a high-pressure game against Essendon last round. North Melbourne is a high handballing team and is not afraid to take the first option. Under intense pressure, the Kangaroos may turn the ball over or over-possess the ball.
As mentioned above, North Melbourne sets up in a very attacking manner from stoppages. With Ziebell back in the team this round, and with Andrew Swallow so dominant around stoppages, the Kangaroos can afford to take the risk because they have quality clearance winners. That said, Collingwood is an elite stoppage team and the Kangaroos need to be careful of allowing the Magpies too much freedom through the middle.
The Kangaroos have improved so drastically in such a short period of time due to the emergence of young talent which is complimenting the experienced players nicely. Guys like Liam Anthony and Sam Gibson were instrumental in the win last week, as were Ben Cunnington and Cruize Garlett.
Shaun Atley - This highly rated junior has taken a while to find his feet at AFL level but has emerged this year as a really damaging player. He has been moved across half back where his pace and foot skills have been a feature. He has shown the ability to play on dangerous small forwards and run off them and is instrumental in setting up North Melbourne’s run off half back. He may find himself lined up on a Ben Sinclair or Jamie Elliott this round, and he must be monitored closely if the Magpies want to lock the game up.
Brent Harvey - After a modest opening half, Boomer tore the game apart with three goals in ten minutes in the third quarter of last week’s game. The veteran has not lost any pace and still has a massive impact on games, which has led many experts to claim that he can play on for another two years and reach the 400 game milestone. When he is allowed to run free, he can dominate games. Although Collingwood doesn’t often tag, it may need to use a Jarryd Blair or Sharrod Wellingham to monitor Boomer’s influence.
Robbie Tarrant - With his career at the crossroads after an injury plagued start to his career, Tarrant has stepped up and cemented his place in the side this year. The emergence of Lachie Hansen has also assisted, as the two are now providing valuable support for Drew Petrie who I believe is still the most important player in the North Melbourne side. Last week, with Petrie well held by Fletcher, Tarrant and Hansen really stepped up and kicked three goals each. The three-pronged forward line has become a vital element of the Kangaroos’ game, and will stretch the Collingwood defence this week.
The Wrap Up
The Magpies don’t want to get into a shoot-out with North Melbourne. The Kangaroos have speed and play with real confidence. Collingwood needs to lock the game up and stop North Melbourne’s outside run. The Magpies showed last week that they are still capable of scrounging out a win in a tight game.
However, on a fast deck and under the roof, the Kangaroos must be feeling confident. Despite the injuries of last round, North Melbourne will be boosted by the return of Jack Ziebell and must feel that it can match it with Collingwood around the stoppages.
Both sides possess quality forward lines, and the most crucial factor in deciding the match will be which team can win it cleanly out of the centre and give the talls one-out contests.
By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86
