Since publishing his first report on Nick's Bulletin Board in early 2005, DaVe86 has become a weekly favourite among the passionate online Magpie Army receiving thousands of views for each article.
The articles are lengthy and have been published in their entirety as the club did not want to hinder DaVe86's creativity during the writing process.
The views expressed in DaVe86's previews are solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Collingwood Football Club.
All eyes of the football world will be focused on the MCG this Friday night for the clash between Collingwood and Carlton. Collingwood has established itself as the clear top of the ladder side, while Carlton’s season hasn’t gone to plan with six losses out of their last seven games.
In fact, Carlton has been one of the big news stories of the week with the media scrutiny on Brett Ratten turned to up to the extreme.
It is an amazing turnaround considering it was less than three months ago where the same experts were listing Carlton as the premiership favourite following a 60-point thumping of Collingwood. A number of injuries to key players have taken its toll, as has the poor form of some of its players.
Nonetheless, you always have to be wary of a side that has copped a whack in the media during the week. The Magpies were in the same position following the round three loss to Carlton. With injuries mounting, most had written off Collingwood as a genuine premiership threat. The coach was questioned, as was the form of players such as Dane Swan and Scott Pendlebury. The criticism clearly galvanised the side, and Collingwood has since won 10 consecutive games. If anything, the loss stung the Magpies into action.
Collingwood needs to be prepared for a red-hot Carlton side this Friday night. Ultimately, Carlton is playing for a top eight position and a win could totally turn the club’s season around. The Blues always lift for games against Collingwood.
Recent History
As mentioned above, it was the Blues who set the MCG alight in round three with a crushing 60 point win. Murphy and Judd were electric with 39 and 35 disposals respectively while Eddie Betts kicked five goals. Swan had 31 disposals, but was widely criticised for his lack of effectiveness on the game. The Blues totally ran the Magpies off their feet. The loss for Collingwood was compounded by injuries to Luke Ball and Ben Reid.
Prior to Carlton’s victory earlier this year, Collingwood had won its previous five encounters against Carlton.
At the Selection Table
The competition for a spot in the side intensifies for Collingwood this week with Pendlebury, Chris Tarrant, Alan Didak and Ben Sinclair all pressing for selection following stints on the sidelines with injury. Marty Clarke was also hailed for his performance in the VFL on the weekend with 31 disposals.
The availability of so many senior players will put pressure on younger guys who have stepped up to fill the void. Guys like Jamie Elliott, Marley Williams, Jackson Paine and Caolan Mooney are holding their own in the side but will face an uphill battle to retain their spot as the more seasoned players return. Elliott to be secure after an amazing 15-tackle effort last week.
Turning the attention to Carlton and the biggest question will be the availability of fullback Michael Jamison. Jamison has been cleared of any structural damage to his shoulder but is no certainty to play on Friday night. With Lachlan Henderson already on the sidelines, Jamison is crucial for Carlton’s structure. Matthew Kreuzer has also been struggling with his knee issues in recent week and has to be some doubt to take his place as well.
Jarrad Waite has a back injury, while Marc Murphy is still listed as being three weeks away. Jeremy Laidler has been ruled out for the season.
In more positive news, players such as Ed Curnow, Andrew Collins, Kane Lucas, Bret Thornton, Andrew McInnes and Jordan Russell are all pressing their claims for selection. The experience of Thornton in particular may be called upon.
Focus on Collingwood
I doubt Collingwood will be putting too much emphasis on the round three loss to Carlton. It was a very disappointing night for the Magpies, but was by no means a clear reflection of how these sides match up against each other.
Despite this, Buckley will be aware that his side cannot allow the gun Carlton midfielders as much space as they were given in round three. Collingwood was smashed around the stoppages and was exposed by the quick Carlton ball movement and outside run. Further, the dangerous small forwards of Carlton totally dominated.
Collingwood’s contested footy has improved out of sight since round three. Therefore, the Magpies could look to close the game up and make it a scrap. Buckley knows that Carlton’s best chance is to open the game up and make it a shoot out.
Jarryd Blair - Thirty-two disposals against Fremantle is an indication of Blair’s improvement as a genuine midfielder in 2012. He received eight votes from the two coaches and it was perhaps his most dominant game to date in the midfield. A lot of Blair’s work goes unnoticed as he spends so much time under the packs and creating play with clever handballs. With a lot of the focus now shifting onto Dayne Beams, Blair has been able to enjoy a bit of freedom and improve the already elite Collingwood midfield.
Chris Dawes - Dawes has received some criticism for his form in 2012. Leading into the game against Fremantle in round 14, he had only kicked 4 goals for the season. However, he showed very impressive signs against the Dockers and managed three crucial goals. I feel as if everyone has been a bit harsh on Dawes as he has played a different role in 2012. In the absence of Leigh Brown, he has stepped up and played the back-up ruck role and has done an admirable job. He has given a contest in the ruck despite the fact that he is undersized. It is therefore no surprise that he has kicked fewer goals considering he has spent a lot of his time up the field. Nonetheless, he is still a crucial player for Collingwood’s structure up forward and hopefully his game against Fremantle turns his form around in the second half of the season.
Darren Jolly - Jolly has gradually improved his form every week so far this year. He is now in a really solid patch of form and his ruck work has been back to its crafty best in recent weeks. He has a crucial role to play this Friday night as Carlton has a rich supply of ruck stocks with Warnock, Kreuzer and Hampson. He will no doubt be one of Collingwood’s most important players in the finals series and will need to be managed carefully throughout the remainder of the season.
Focus on Carlton
Undoubtedly, a number of injuries have really affected Carlton’s form. However, most concerning is the lack of confidence the Blues are playing with. I think the message from Brett Ratten will be very simple this week. He will instruct his side to take the game on, take chances and try to regain some of the flair from the opening rounds of the season.
When Carlton is switched on, its ball movement is electrifying and the side looks really quick. Recently however, the ball movement has been really slow and scrappy. It has been beaten in the contests, and has been exposed in defence with the absence of key players. The Blues are also lacking the presence of Jarrad Waite across centre half forward.
Collingwood needs to be wary because if the Blues get a sniff they can be a terrific side when they have momentum.
Robert Warnock - At 206cm, Warnock is one of the tallest players in the league and can be near impossible to stop in the ruck. Despite Hawthorn’s dominance in round 14, Warnock was very damaging in the ruck and was palming it down beautifully to his midfielders. I thought he tired as the game wore on which is not surprising considering his lack of match fitness. Nonetheless, his battle with Jolly will be influential. If Carlton can get on top around the stoppages, the Pies will struggle to shut down the run.
Andrew Carrazzo - It is no coincidence that Carlton’s form slump started when Carrazzo hurt his shoulder. He has returned to the side now and has slotted straight back in with ease. He will likely tag Dane Swan on Friday night, but don’t be surprised to see him go to Dayne Beams. He is such a good tagger because he shuts down his opponent, and also wins a lot of the ball himself.
Bryce Gibbs - Gibbs by his own admission has had a disappointing 2012 season. Many expected him to move predominantly into the midfield and really step up. When Murphy was injured, Gibbs was the one who needed to fill the void in his absence. He still seems his best when he is given tagging jobs through the midfield, and he may be asked to go to someone like a Pendlebury or Dale Thomas and try to hurt them offensively. Gibbs is now a senior figure in the side and needs to help Chris Judd out through the middle. He also needs to be more damaging forward of centre. I think on the big stage on Friday night, Gibbs has a real opportunity to answer his critics. He had 32 disposals when these sides last met.
The Wrap Up
The first quarter is going to be crucial. There is no doubt that Carlton will come out fired up. If Collingwood can weather the early storm, or get off to a flying start itself, it could totally bury a Carlton side that is devoid of confidence. Collingwood has been starting games terrifically over the past month so Carlton needs to reverse this trend.
I worry about Carlton’s ability to shut down Cloke and Dawes if Jamison and Henderson are unavailable. The midfield depth of Collingwood could also prove a lot to handle.
What Carlton does have however is the small forwards to worry Collingwood. If it can get on top in the middle and expose the Magpies’ defenders one on one, an upset may be on the cards. The win in round three will give the Carlton players a bit of belief as well.
Expect a head to head battle between Chris Judd and Dane Swan. The Magpies probably won’t directly tag Judd, but will rotate a lot of players through him and check him closely around stoppages. Judd looms as the most important player on the ground on Friday night.
Although I think the Blues will put up a big fight, I think the form of Collingwood at the moment will be too good. I expect the Magpies to strangle the life out of Carlton. It should be a cracking game.
By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86
