In 2016, David Natoli, aka DaVe86, returns to Collingwood Media to file his famous, in-depth tactical match previews.

Since publishing his first report on Nick's Bulletin Board in early 2005, DaVe86 has become a weekly favourite among the passionate online Magpie Army receiving thousands of views for each article.

The articles are lengthy and are published in their entirety as the club does not want to hinder DaVe86's creativity during the writing process.

The views expressed in DaVe86's previews are solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Collingwood Football Club.

***

What a difference a week makes in football.

In fact, what a difference four seconds makes!

This was well and truly the case for the Collingwood Football Club last Friday night against Richmond. All looked lost, with the Magpies three goals down with only five minutes remaining. A goal in the final four seconds of the game to Brodie Grundy handed the Magpies a one-point lead. And the rest is history.

That Grundy goal could potentially be one of the most important moments of Collingwood’s young season. If the Magpies had lost the game, it would’ve meant two straight losses to commence the year and huge pressure would have amounted on the coaching staff and players alike. The win has lifted some of that pressure, while no doubt providing a huge boost to the confidence of the side. Collingwood played so well in the final five minutes of that game, and hopefully it’s the kick start the Pies need to get the 2016 season back on track.

St Kilda on the other hand currently sits in last place on the ladder after a winless start to the season. Despite this, I don’t believe the Saints’ current ladder position is an accurate reflection of their form. Alan Richardson’s side was very good against Port Adelaide in round one but just ran out of steam in the last quarter. They also tried hard against the Bulldogs last week but just lacked polish. The Saints again finished the game poorly. These slow finishes to game could potentially be attributed to an interrupted pre-season. One of St Kilda’s NAB Challenge games was cancelled due to inclement weather, meaning they entered the home and away season with one game less experience than other teams.

Whilst St Kilda is a young, developing team, it is definitely not one to be taken lightly. The Saints are a well-coached team and play with a lot of energy. They are a good clearance side and tackle with vigour.

Recent History

Collingwood’s recent history against the Saints is dominant, having not lost a clash between the two sides since the 2010 drawn Grand Final.

These sides last met in round three, 2015. The Saints jumped out of the blocks early in a high scoring first quarter. However, Collingwood kicked 15 goals after quarter time to St Kilda’s four, resulting in a crunching 74 point victory.

Dane Swan polled three Brownlow votes on the back of a 39-disposal performance. Scott Pendlebury polled two with 29 disposals, while Jamie Elliott was electric with four goals. Travis Cloke was also very good, kicking five goals. With both Swan and Elliott out of this week’s clash, it will definitely even up the contest. For the Saints, David Armitage and Jack Steven were typically good with 33 and 32 disposals each.

At the Selection Table

Despite the win last week, Collingwood will likely make a few changes ahead of this week’s match. Unfortunately, Travis Varcoe has been ruled out for one more week as he overcomes his hamstring complaint. However, it appears as though Jeremy Howe is in line for his Collingwood debut after successfully completing two VFL practice matches. His inclusion could help add spark to the forward line.

Whilst it was an improved effort by Collingwood’s forward line last week, the fact remains that the combination of Travis Cloke, Darcy Moore and Corey Gault only provided a combined total of two goals and has failed to fire for the second week running. Nathan Buckley may elect to go shorter up forward. Otherwise, Jarrod Witts may be an option to return from a hand injury he sustained in round one.

Alan Toovey, Tyson Goldsack and Jonathon Marsh are all also available for selection. However, it may be worth keeping an eye on Matthew Goodyear who was an AFL emergency last week, and was best on ground in the VFL practice match. His debut is seemingly inching closer.

Turning attention to the Saints, and Alan Richardson has close to a full squad to choose from. With such a healthy list, it means there will be plenty of players pushing for selection after two straight losses to the senior side.

Leading the charge will be Blake Acres who was omitted last week from the AFL side but responded strongly at VFL level. I was surprised to see him dropped last week because he showed plenty of promise against Port Adelaide in round one.

Paddy McCartin was quiet in his first game of the year, but I expect him to be given another opportunity. Otherwise, Tim Membrey has been impressive at VFL level. If the Saints opt to go smaller, then Darren Minchington and Eli Templeton have also been good and are in line for selection.

Focus on Collingwood

Collingwood’s players should be rightfully proud of their fighting efforts last Friday night. However, as the dust settles on that match, Nathan Buckley will have surely addressed a number of areas which need attention. Buckley will know that his side can’t escape like last week on a weekly basis. For the second week running, the Magpies were beaten in disposals, marks, hitouts and clearances. Contested footy was much better, as was the tackling pressure, however both of these areas still require improvement. The big area of improvement for St Kilda this year has been its clearance work, so Collingwood really needs to tighten up this area in particular.

Having said all that, it was pleasing to see the work ethic improve dramatically, and the fact that Collingwood was able to grind out the win and never give up. It was at times an ugly game to watch, with so many turnovers, fumbles and skill errors. However, if Collingwood applies that sort of effort to every game, then it will win more games than it loses.

Player Focus - Collingwood

Alex Fasolo – It’s hard not to comment on Fasolo’s six goal haul on Friday night. It was as good as I’ve ever seen Fasolo play, and it acts as reward for his strong work ethic over the pre-season. At his best, he is such a difficult match-up because he plays like a lead-up forward and is such a strong mark, but he is also such a good crumber. In addition to six goals, he was attributed with four goal assists on Friday night, meaning he had a direct hand in ten of Collingwood’s thirteen goals. He’ll get close attention this week, likely from Sean Dempster.

Ben Reid – Alex Fasolo may have stolen the limelight on Friday night, but close to the best news to come out of the game was the impressive return of Ben Reid. He settled into his customary half-back role and had 19 disposals and eight marks. He was brilliant in his ability to read the play and take intercept marks, however the real highlight were his deadly foot-skills. Collingwood has missed this lethal left boot from half back and it will be great to have him in action again on Saturday afternoon.

Brodie Grundy – His last minute goal was the stuff of dreams, but Grundy was also quick to point out that his form for large portions of Friday night’s game can be improved. He was arguably beaten by Shaun Hampson in the ruck, although his work around the ground was still quite solid as he finished with 17 disposals and two goals. In the last five minutes of the game, he decided to jump really aggressively in the hitouts, and it was a huge reason why Collingwood was able to turn the game around.

Focus on St Kilda

The Saints have already shown glimpses this year of how good they can be. With such a young side however, it has been hard to sustain these efforts over four quarters. St Kilda typically holds a six man forward line, and has been able to expose its opponents with quick ball movement. Collingwood needs to be mindful of this. If the Magpies opt to press high up the field but fail to defend St Kilda’s quick ball movement, then the Saints can score quite heavily.

The other interesting thing about the Saints is how small their regular line-up is. I have been impressed with players such as Jack Lonie, Jack Billings and Jade Gresham, however it is strange to see such a small line-up in an era where tall midfielders are in vogue. It will be interesting to see how these small bodies stand up against bigger opponents.

In addition to this, St Kilda is a terrific clearance side with players such as David Armitage and Jack Steven quite dominant in the middle of the ground. Collingwood has struggled in this area to date, so the Saints will look to get the edge through the middle of the ground. Expect to see Nick Riewoldt play more through the middle at times as well.

The Saints were convincingly beaten by the Bulldogs last week, which was disappointing considering it was  Riewoldt’s 300th game. Another milestone occurs this week as the Saints celebrate the 50th anniversary of the 1966 Premiership.  

Player Focus - St Kilda

Tom Hickey – Hickey was the toast of the town in round one with a career best game against Pot Adelaide. He was brought back to earth quickly last week though, mainly by the Bulldogs’ Jordan Roughead. St.Kilda doesn’t really have a recognised second ruckman in the side right now, so Hickey has a huge role for his team in filling the void. It should be a great battle against Brodie Grundy who is equally searching for his best form this season.

Jack Steven – I think Steven is one of the most underrated and consistent midfielders in the game. He is lightning quick and has a huge engine. He simply never stops trying, which makes him almost impossible to tag. Steven has been St Kilda’s best player over the past two weeks, and Collingwood’s midfield needs to be mindful of him. His ball use can at times be a bit sloppy, but he breaks lines and also wins his own ball which makes him a really solid all-round player.

Jack Billings – Billings has struggled in his first two seasons with injury, but seems to have had a great pre-season and has looked really sharp in the beginning of the year. He is the type of player that will trouble Collingwood’s defence due to his speed and clever ball use. St Kilda has invested a lot in Billings, and I get the impression that he is really about to break out as a player. Keep an eye on him this week.

The Wrap Up

This is a tricky game for Collingwood. While the Magpies will go in favourite, the Saints play in a manner which will trouble the Magpies. They like moving the ball quickly, and are also a good clearance side, which are two areas which can expose the Magpies.

Collingwood needs to improve around stoppages, and have its tackling pressure at its absolute highest level. This is an opportunity for the Magpies to win two games in a row and really set up the season. It will be difficult to back up from such an emotional win last week, but any lapse in concentration this round could give the Saints a sniff.

By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86