Collingwood is fortunate to have two players widely believed to be in contention for Monday night’s 2013 Brownlow Medal. Dane Swan and Scott Pendlebury have been hovering under the noses of the umpires for years and their standards didn’t slip an inch this year.

History is on their side – one is a past winner and the other has twice finished equal fourth.

But three players loom particularly large as those most likely to trump the Magpie pair this year.

It’s a trio well known to all football followers: Gary Ablett Junior (Gold Coast), Joel Selwood (Geelong) and Sam Mitchell (Hawthorn).

With this in mind, collingwoodfc.com.au has taken a look at how each player has performed this season to help the Magpie Army map out the likelihood of either Swan or Pendlebury delivering Collingwood’s 10th Brownlow Medal.

At their best
Dane Swan: Slaughtered Carlton with 41 possessions and eight tackles in round 15. Gave the struggling Melbourne and Greater Western Sydney a real going over with 39 disposals in his meetings against each side. He also kicked three goals and three behinds against the Giants, meaning that he is surely a monty for the three votes. A 10 clearance and 33 possession game in a loss to Hawthorn in round three won’t have gone unnoticed, either.

Scott Pendlebury: A career-high 42 possessions and two goals to go with eight inside 50s against Adelaide in round 16 has three votes written all over it in gold letters. Had the footy on a string against the Bulldogs in round 12, totalling 35 possessions and 10 clearances. Shone against North Melbourne in round 23 (33 possessions and two classy goals) but the top votes may instead go to a member of the winning side.

Gary Ablett: Everyone at Collingwood got a first hand look at Ablett’s best when the Suns upstaged the Magpies in round 17. The Gold Coast skipper had a cool 49 possessions, 10 clearances and two goals. Three votes should automatically be in the bag on that basis. He should start the year with three votes under his belt – four goals, nine clearances and 34 possessions in Gold Coast’s win over St Kilda says as much.

Joel Selwood: Season 2013 has arguably been Selwood’s most complete. Typically, he saved his best for Hawthorn, collecting 33 and 34 possessions in his two meetings with them (as well as laying 13 tackles across the two games). He also kicked four goals for the first time in his career against Port Adelaide in round 20 (28 possessions) and backed it up with another four and 29 against the Eagles the following week.

Sam Mitchell: We’re talking about a player who unobtrusively influences almost every single match he has played in for the last five years. Has spent more time at half back this year (where he was named in the All-Australian team) but his impact has been as strong as ever. It was evident from the get-go when he won 37 disposals in Hawthorn’s loss to Geelong in round one and he is sure to poll strongly in mid-season wins over expansion teams Gold Coast (36 possessions including 20 handballs) and Greater Western Sydney (35 possessions and three tackles).

At their quietest
Dane Swan: Had less than 30 possessions only seven times during the home and away season, one of which was while playing primarily in attack against Fremantle in round seven (he also kicked two goals and laid six tackles). Lowered his colours (23 possessions) against Sydney in round nine and Port Adelaide in round 14 but would have to be a contender for votes in most – if not all – of his remaining games.

Scott Pendlebury: May struggle to poll in the matches against Fremantle (23 possessions in round seven) and Greater Western Sydney (25 possessions and one tackle in round 18).

Gary Ablett: The master had a late-season quiet patch when he followed 19 possessions against Melbourne with only 22 against the Power. He may sacrifice votes in these games, particularly the one where he was double-tagged by Demons Jordie McKenzie and Colin Garland, but he’ll make up for it elsewhere. That much is certain.

Joel Selwood: Could manage only the 13 touches against Fremantle in round 14 and just 14 (and a goal) against the Blues in round three. But it’s not all about possessions with Selwood – his 136 tackles is more than any of the other four players included in this preview.

Sam Mitchell: The 2008 premiership captain rarely, if ever, had a quiet match. He had 24 disposals six times, meaning that he flew under the radar when, if he were any other player, the public would be singing his praises.

Their level of consistency
Dane Swan: You would be hard pressed to find a more consistently prolific player than Swan who has won 30 or more possessions in 81 games since 2009. He broke into the 40s once during his side’s demolition of Carlton in round 15. He took the ball inside 50 five times or more in 11 games and kicked at least one goal in 12 games.

Scott Pendlebury: Constantly records large disposal numbers and has had just as big an impact on the scoreboard as Swan, matching him with 18 home and away goals this year. Pendlebury won 28 touches on five different occasions, illustrating just how consistently he churns out possessions.

Gary Ablett: Is an average of 25 Brownlow votes in his last five seasons consistent enough for you? How about an average of 687.2 possessions per year since 2009? Or maybe just the seven straight All-Australian selections is enough evidence?

Joel Selwood: Is averaging more than 24 disposals per game for the sixth year in a row and has consistently polled well in the Brownlow, averaging 17.4 votes per year since 2008.

Sam Mitchell: The gap between Mitchell’s best and worst is tiny. The fact that he never had less than 24 possessions in a match is a testament to his ability to produce the goods no matter the conditions, the opposition or the context of the game. It also means that he will regularly be in the frame to poll the minor votes when a teammate has a day out and earns three.

Past five years:
Dane Swan:
2008 – 12 votes
2009 – 12 votes
2010 – 24 votes (third overall)
2011 – 34 votes (winner)
2012 – 25 votes (equal fourth)
Total – 107 votes (an average of 21.4 per year)

Scott Pendlebury:
2008 – 7 votes
2009 – 13 votes
2010 – 21 votes (equal fourth)
2011 – 24 votes (equal fourth)
2012 – 15 votes (12 votes after nine rounds)
Total – 80 votes (an average of 16 per year)

Gary Ablett:
2008 – 22 votes (equal third)
2009 – 30 votes (winner)
2010 – 26 votes (runner up)
2011 – 23 votes (equal sixth)
2012 – 24 votes (equal sixth)
Total – 125 votes (an average of 25 votes per year)

Joel Selwood
2008 – 19 votes (equal seventh)
2009 – 16 votes (eighth)
2010 – 21 votes (equal fourth)
2011 – 17 votes
2012 – 14 votes
Total – 87 votes (an average of 17.4 per year)

Sam Mitchell:
2008 – 15 votes
2009 – 13 votes
2010 – 15 votes
2011 – 30 votes (second – ineligible)
2012 – 26 votes (equal second)
Total – 99 votes (an average of 19.8 per year)

What’s in their favour
Dane Swan: The tattoos, the fact that he has the ball an average of 31.2 times per game, his recent Brownlow record…take your pick.

Scott Pendlebury: The umpires traditionally reward the classy players and they don’t come more elegant than Pendles. That smooth left foot is worth a few votes on its own.

Gary Ablett: To choose one of umpteen factors, Ablett played in eight winning teams this year (compared with three in each of his previous two seasons). The winning team is always in a better position to nab the three votes.

Joel Selwood: Clearly has the respect of the umpires, receiving 27 more free kicks than any other player this season (73 in total). His unconditional attack on the football makes him one of the most eye-catching midfielders in the game.

Sam Mitchell: His team rarely loses (the Hawks won 18 home and away games of which Mitchell missed only one), he is a proven vote winner (his 30 votes in 2011 (albeit while ineligible due to suspension) would have been enough to win in almost any other year) and he is well versed in making acceptance speeches (he won the 2002 J.J. Liston Trophy (the VFL’s Brownlow equivalent) in remarkable circumstances, earning best afield honours in 10 of his 11 games at that level).

What’s not
Dane Swan: He didn’t miss a game and only had two home and away matches that could legitimately be deemed quiet (by his standards). That aside…maybe the umpires became so used to seeing the tattooed No. 36 flash past their eyes that he blends into the crowd?

Scott Pendlebury: Not a whole lot, the presence of Swan aside. Has been a regular vote winner in his past three seasons but hasn’t polled in a losing side since round 16, 2008 (the Magpies had eight losses this year).

Gary Ablett: We just mentioned that Ablett played in eight wins this year, making it more than he’d played in during the Suns’ first two seasons. Unfortunately for him, it’s still well short of what Swan, Pendlebury, Selwood and Mitchell were a part of (one suspects that may change in 2014).

Joel Selwood: It can’t be easy to poll votes when you’ve got Jimmy Bartel, Steve Johnson, Corey Enright, Mathew Stokes, Steven Motlop and Joel Corey as your competition. Then again, that didn’t hinder Bartel or Ablett from claiming the medal during Geelong’s golden run.

Sam Mitchell: It’s difficult to find something that’s not in his favour. He’s been even more eye-catching than usual this year, taking 27 bounces (his most since 2008). As Robert Harvey, Shane Crawford, Shane Woewodin, Jason Akermanis and Chris Judd have shown, players than run and carry the ball know how to poll votes.

Brownlow oddspot
Dane Swan: It’s now a matter of football folklore that Swan was sitting at home on his couch in a Spiderman outfit during end-of-season celebrations alongside teammates Alan Didak and Guy Richards as he threatened to upstage the entire competition when he had polled 16 votes after 14 rounds in 2007.

Scott Pendlebury: He has polled only one vote from eight home and away games against West Coast – something that is sure to change this year considering he won 37 disposals against the Eagles in round 22.

Gary Ablett: The 2009 winner polled 14 votes in his first five seasons. After five rounds in the 2009 count, he had already received 12.

Joel Selwood: The four Selwoods (Adam, Troy, Joel and Scott) have polled a combined 114 Brownlow votes…89 of which are Joel’s.

Sam Mitchell: Famously polled three votes in his side’s 28 point loss to Collingwood in round 10, 2005, on the back of his game-high 39 possessions. On Triple M, Sam Newman awarded him three votes as his ‘Worst On Ground’, essentially claiming that Mitchell’s match was ineffective.