Since publishing his first report on Nick's Bulletin Board in early 2005, DaVe86 has become a weekly favourite among the passionate online Magpie Army receiving thousands of views for each article.
The articles are lengthy and have been published in their entirety as the club did not want to hinder DaVe86's creativity during the writing process.
The views expressed in DaVe86's previews are solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Collingwood Football Club.
After a long and unbearable wait, round one of the 2012 AFL Premiership Season is finally underway. Along with the footy, my weekly match previews return for another year.
This week’s preview focuses on the blockbuster match-up between Collingwood and Hawthorn at the MCG on Friday night. A near capacity crowd will roll in to see the rematch between the two sides that provided one of the games of the year in the preliminary final last season. Both Collingwood and Hawthorn carry their own scars from 2011, with Hawthorn only a kick away from making a Grand Final, and Collingwood finishing runners-up to Geelong.
All punters have jumped on Hawthorn this year as the premiership favourite after a very solid pre-season. In direct contrast, many have tipped Collingwood to be the big sliders of 2012 following an injury-riddled pre-season and the retirements of Leon Davis, Leigh Brown and of course Mick Malthouse. Therefore, the stakes are fairly high for a round one game. It will be a baptism of fire for new coach Nathan Buckley.
Nevertheless, it is important to remember that the four points on offer in round one are no more valuable than the four points available in any other round. A loss does not render a side incapable of winning a premiership (ask Geelong in 2007). The importance of a round one win is purely to gain confidence, momentum and to start the season on the front foot. Both sides have very tough draws, and an early win against a quality opponent will send a strong message to the competition.
Pre-Season Form
Collingwood
Collingwood has probably found itself a week or two short in its pre-season. A number of core players such as Tarrant, Didak, Johnson, Brown and Maxwell are closing in on selection, but are short on match practice and will therefore be unavailable this week. Adding to the Magpies’ woes, Sharrod Wellingham has been handed a two-week suspension by the club for breaking team protocol. The pre-season also saw Brent Macaffer and Andrew Krakouer suffer season ending knee injuries. Cameron Wood is also battling an injury-riddled pre-season, which leaves Collingwood’s ruck division short. It means Collingwood’s depth has been severely hampered which is a concerning issue considering the retirements at the end of 2011.
Form wise, Collingwood has been up and down all pre-season. It suffered disappointing losses to Melbourne and Adelaide, but bounced back against St Kilda in the final practice match. The game against St Kilda left me with a bit more confidence about Collingwood’s prospects as the tackling pressure was up and the team seemed to gel again.
The Magpies have also unearthed a few new players this pre-season such as Jackson Paine, Peter Yagmoor and Jamie Elliott, all of whom I expect to see get game-time in 2012 Jonathon Ceglar, Paul Seedsman, Tom Young and Lachlan Keefe also did their selection chances no harm.
But it was the form of Travis Cloke that would be most pleasing to Magpie fans. His pre-season was very strong and he looks ready to pick up from where he left off in 2011. Chris Dawes also looks much fitter this pre-season, and he has been forced to assist in the ruck given the absence of Cameron Wood.
Hawthorn
Turning the focus onto the Hawks, and the tale is a lot more optimistic. Apart from a momentary lapse against Richmond in a shortened NAB Cup game, the Hawks looked incredibly sharp and the depth of the side is noticeable. The confidence is flowing from the Hawthorn camp, and you get the impression revenge is on their mind following the crushing three point loss to the Magpies in the preliminary final.
However, it has been forgotten that Hawthorn also possesses injuries to key players leading into the season proper. Although the injury list is far smaller than Collingwood’s, the injuries are to key players from the Hawthorn spine. Missing this week will be Jarryd Roughead, Stephen Gilham and Max Bailey. As these three big men will be absent, it does leave the Hawks potentially undersized. Roughead’s absence in particular will be a sigh of relief for an undermanned Collingwood defence.
The form of David Hale in the pre-season will give Hawthorn a lot of confidence. He has proved a handful as a permanent forward and seems to be marking everything coming his way. With Lance Franklin roaming through the midfield at times, it gives the Hawks another forward target. The injury to Max Bailey will require Hale to spend time in the ruck. But his form up forward has been so good that Hawthorn has promoted Broc McCauley to the senior list to fill the ruck void, which allows Hale to remain forward. New recruit Jack Gunston will also provide a mid-sized lead up target in the forward line. The Hawthorn forward line that was once reliant upon Franklin and Rioli now has real versatility and several different avenues to goal.
Depth was also once an issue for Hawthorn. However, many experts are now claiming that the Hawks possess the best depth in the competition. The 2011 season saw the emergence of players like Liam Shiels, Paul Puopolo, Ryan Schoenmakers, Issac Smith, Luke Breust, Brendan Whitecross, Matthew Suckling and Shane Savage. Hawthorn will be expecting all these players to take even further strides in 2012. Shaun Burgoyne is also as fit as he has ever been and looks set to have a major impact in 2012.
Key Players
Collingwood
Travis Cloke - Cloke has perhaps established himself now as the second most dangerous forward in the competition after Lance Franklin. He is monstering defenders and has improved his goal kicking out of sight. He was a telling factor against an undersized Hawthorn defence in the Preliminary Final last year, and he will again have a big say on Friday night. Without Gilham in the side, he is likely to face Schoenmakers again who has put on considerable size over the pre-season. If Cloke can again get on top in this battle, it will go a long way to ensuring Collingwood can stay competitive against this confident Hawks outfit.
Darren Jolly - Without Max Bailey, Jolly becomes the only genuine quality ruckman on the ground. He will face an inexperienced McCauley and will occasionally have to deal with David Hale as well. However, Jolly is likely to ruck with little assistance considering Chris Dawes provides the only real back up. Jolly’s form over the pre-season was rusty at the beginning, but he was fantastic against St Kilda in the final practice match.
Luke Ball - Hawthorn fans will have nightmares of the Luke Ball snap in the dying minutes of the preliminary final that sent the Magpies through to the Grand Final. Ball has trimmed down over the pre-season to improve his fitness base and looks primed for another big year. He will square off against Sam Mitchell who always plays well against Collingwood. Undoubtedly, given the strength of each side’s forward lines, clearances are the vital component of Friday’s clash and the winner of the Ball v Mitchell match-up will be decisive.
X Factor - Alex Fasolo
Collingwood’s small forward stocks have diminished with the injuries to Krakouer, Macaffer and Didak. The forward line lacks a bit of pace and spark. This makes Fasolo incredibly important to the side, as he is one of the few smaller players left up forward who has a bit of x-factor, genuine pace and flair. He has bulked up over pre-season, but still looks quick and sharp and could be ready to take his game to a new more consistent level. However, in his second year, it is a lot to ask.
Hawthorn
Lance Franklin - Franklin is the obvious danger man on Friday night after a very good pre-season. He has worked hard throughout the NAB Cup to be able to play spurts in the midfield and open the game up. Although he is far more dangerous as a forward, he does add genuine excitement through the middle and he has an ability to kick a long goal from outside 50. More importantly, Collingwood will be without Chris Tarrant who has a great record against Lance Franklin. This means Ben Reid will likely get the job, or Harry O’Brien. Moving O’Brien onto Franklin will be a risky call as he typically plays the role on Rioli. The absence of Nick Maxwell will further put pressure on the Collingwood defence. With Hale and Gunston forward, Franklin has freedom to work up the ground to tire his opponent. Therefore, I feel that Collingwood is likely to use multiple opponents on him.
Sam Mitchell - As mentioned above, Sam Mitchell has a terrific record against Collingwood and will again be one of the key players on Friday night. Both sides have terrific midfields, but Mitchell v Ball match-up is critical.
Shaun Burgoyne - After a sluggish start following the trade to Hawthorn, Burgoyne is now repaying the faith and patience shown to him and he is flying under the radar of many football observers. Burgoyne is versatile, his pace has returned, and his class has always been unquestioned. He looks set for a terrific year, and he is a real luxury to a Hawks side already loaded with talent.
X-Factor - Cyril Rioli
It’s hard to go past Cyril when you are talking about x-factor. He is likely to spend more time in the midfield this year, but he will undoubtedly still add a lot of spark to the forward line. Provided he keeps his body right, he should become more consistent in 2012 and put together his best season yet. On the big stage, he should shine on Friday night.
Where the game may be won
As mentioned, Hawthorn will be reliant on its run off half back and its ability to pinpoint targets through the Collingwood forward press. If the Magpies are unable to lock the ball inside 50, then the undermanned defence will be left wanting against the likes of Franklin and Hale. Hawthorn will be looking to get the ball in long and quick considering the defence will be without Maxwell, Brown, Tarrant and Johnson.
When Hawthorn got on top in the preliminary final, it took the ascendency in the middle and around the stoppages. However, Collingwood may feel that if Jolly and Ball can get on top in the middle, it can gain the edge in this area. Pendlebury and Swan will be fit and should have strong games.
Regardless of how undermanned the defence is, if Collingwood can win the stoppages and get the ball to Cloke and Dawes quickly, it has to feel confident of winning. If tackling pressure is down even one per cent, Hawthorn will find it very easy to penetrate the forward press.
I think Nathan Buckley would be happy to see a scrappy game, with high intensity and pressure. On the other hand, Alistair Clarkson would like to see his team possess the football and carefully craft its way through defensive zones. If Hawthorn is winning the possession count and uncontested marks, then it is also probably winning the game.
The wrap up
Hawthorn will enter the game as favourites. I believe this is rightly so. I feel as if the Magpies will look to build into season 2012 as opposed to peaking early like they did in 2011.
I still think however that the game will be close and the Magpies are not to be written off just yet. Collingwood’s midfield is still close to full strength, and all players on the field are 100% fresh and ready to go. Depth is not as big an issue in round one as it is mid-way through the year.
I’ll be there on Friday night and hope to see a few familiar faces after a long off-season. I can’t wait.
