In 2017, David Natoli, aka DaVe86, returns to Collingwood Media to file his famous, in-depth tactical match previews.

Since publishing his first report on Nick's Bulletin Board in early 2005, DaVe86 has become a weekly favourite among the passionate online Magpie Army receiving thousands of views for each article.

The articles are lengthy and have been published in their entirety as the club did not want to hinder DaVe86's creativity during the writing process.

The views expressed in DaVe86's previews are solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Collingwood Football Club.

This week I preview the Queen’s Birthday clash between Collingwood and Melbourne, to be played at the MCG this Monday.

It is a crunch game, considering both sides currently sit on five wins and are only one game out of the top eight.

Collingwood is full of confidence after three consecutive victories and will look to head into its round thirteen bye at an even six wins and six losses. It would be a huge achievement for the Magpies to even the win-loss ledger after such a poor start to the year.

It’s going to be a huge challenge, though, to come back from a bruising encounter against Fremantle at Domain Stadium that saw Tyson Goldsack, Jamie Elliott and Daniel Wells sustain injuries which ruled them out of this week’s game.

Melbourne, on the other hand, is fresh from its bye and has had a fortnight’s preparation for this match. The Demons have been a tipster’s nightmare this year, often winning the difficult games and losing the ones most expect they would win. It will be interesting to see how the Demons front up after the bye. They are also experiencing some injury troubles with Jesse Hogan and Max Gawn ruled out.

Melbourne historically lifts for the Queen’s Birthday match, and I’m expecting a completely switched on Demon outfit.

This is certainly going to be a game won and lost in the midfield. Collingwood’s midfield has been in scintillating form in recent weeks, and has been the catalyst for the mid-season revival. There are few teams in the AFL with the star-power and depth of the Collingwood midfield, but Melbourne is definitely one side that can match it.

With the likes of Nathan Jones, Jack Viney, Clayton Oliver, Jordan Lewis, Christian Petracca and Dom Tyson, the Demons have young midfield, but also a tough one. It’s a midfield which loves the contest and won’t take many backward steps.

There’s no doubt that there are going to be some fierce contests in the centre of the ground, especially early as each side tries to gain ascendency.

Recent History
Melbourne has won its previous three encounters against Collingwood, including the last two Queen’s Birthday clashes. When these sides last met in round 12 last season, the Demons were very comfortable 48 point victors. Bernie Vince continued his absolute stellar form against Collingwood, with 42 disposals and three Brownlow votes. Max Gawn polled two Brownlow votes and was the dominant ruckman on the ground, while Nathan Jones also dominated with 32 disposals and one Brownlow vote. Vince and Jones have been regular vote getters against Collingwood in recent times.

At the Selection Table
The Magpies have confirmed that father-son recruit Callum Brown will make his debut for the club on Monday. Brown will become Collingwood’s first debutant for the season. Also coming into the team are Alex Fasolo, James Aish and Tom Langdon. Daniel Wells, Jamie Elliott and Tyson Goldsack have all been ruled out, while Jackson Ramsay has been omitted.

The Demons have recalled Christian Salem, who returns from suspension. He replaces the omitted Josh Wagner.

Focus on Collingwood
It was another impressive and gutsy display from Collingwood last week to win by 20 points in Perth. With no rotations left by the end of the game, the Magpies actually finished the game much stronger to record a memorable victory.

It was a win again dominated by the midfield. Scott Pendlebury and Adam Treloar were inspiring with 35 and 30 disposals respectively, while Taylor Adams, Jack Crisp and Steele Sidebottom all won plenty of the ball. But it was yet another game that Collingwood dominated for large portions, yet inaccurate kicking kept its opponent in the game. It has been a familiar story over the first half of this year, and Collingwood was lucky that Fremantle were quite inaccurate as well. The Magpies need to start capitalizing on momentum.

The win obviously came at a cost, with Goldsack, Elliott and Wells all ruled out. All three of these players have been vital in Collingwood’s resurgence and will be sorely missed. Elliott is Collingwood’s leading goal kicker, while Goldsack has been a rock down back. With Ben Reid still absent, the Magpies are going to have an extremely young backline this week. Wells’ class will also be sorely missed. The Magpies will need to call on all their depth this week to overcome the talented Melbourne side.

Player Focus – Collingwood
Darcy Moore – The young Collingwood spearhead had a challenging start to the year, with the added responsibility and mixed delivery from the midfield. But his form in recent weeks has been really impressive. Despite being the only tall in the Collingwood forward line, Moore has also spent time in the ruck which has meant he is more involved in the game. He is actually showing really positive signs as a back-up ruck as well due to his big leap and agility for a man of his size. After a very slow start, he has now kicked 13 goals for the year, seven of which have come in the past three rounds. Eventually it would be good to see some support for Moore, but short term he seems to be enjoying playing as the sole target with an agile forward line around him.

Jack Crisp – Crisp may have had a quieter start to the season as opposed to what we have been accustomed to in recent years, but he had his best game for the year against Fremantle last week with 26 disposals, and it was his effectiveness that was really pleasing. He broke lines, hit up targets with piercing left foot kicks and also used his size to push aside his Docker opponents. Let’s hope Crisp’s form continues on this upward trend, as his pace and size is an important component of the Collingwood midfield.

Focus on Melbourne
There’s no disputing the talent of the Melbourne midfield. But it is still quite young which is probably why results have been slightly inconsistent this year. Despite this, the Demons have also combined their inside strength with some real outside power as well. Melbourne is very quick to play on and take the game on, with the likes of Jayden Hunt and Michael Hibberd generating plenty of run from defence.

There’s no doubt the Demons have missed Gawn a lot. He was the number one ruckman in the competition heading into this year, and he ensured his young midfield was given silver service. His absence, compounded with the absence of Jake Spencer, has meant the Melbourne midfield has had to find new ways of winning stoppages. Brodie Grundy has been in good form, so the Melbourne midfield will have its work cut out if Grundy takes control of the ruck.

Melbourne’s strength is clearly contested football, ranking second in the competition in this statistic. Collingwood on the other hand has been really strong in uncontested possession in recent weeks and has been moving the ball really freely. I think Melbourne will look to limit Collingwood’s run by winning the ball at the coalface and outhunt the Magpies for contested possession.

Player Focus – Melbourne
Bernie Vince – When analyzing a Collingwood and Melbourne game, it is impossible to ignore the influence Vince has had in recent history. He has polled a total of 11 Brownlow votes in his last four appearances against Collingwood, and has often been entrusted with the important job of nullifying Pendlebury. Vince has not only been able to shut down the Collingwood skipper, but has also won enormous amounts of the football and kicked goals. The depth of the Melbourne midfield has meant he has been pushed out of the centre square at times, but his experience is still very important. It will be interesting to see whether Simon Goodwin elects to throw Vince back into the midfield to tag Pendlebury or even Treloar.

Jeff Garlett – One of the shining lights of Melbourne’s season has been the form of Jeff Garlett. He has kicked 25 goals so far this year, including five in his last match against Gold Coast. It is not only his goal kicking form that has impressed, but also his leadership of a young forward line and his defensive work rate. He will be a handful on the big stage this Monday, and perhaps a player who could prove a game-breaker.

The Wrap-Up
It will be interest to see how the bye rounds impact this game.

Collingwood has a bye ahead of it next round, while Melbourne is fresh from its break. Occasionally, a bye can halt momentum, and it’s not uncommon for some sides to be a little bit flat after the rest. The Demons kicked 14 goals in the second half to storm home against Gold Coast, so the bye may have come at the wrong time for Melbourne.

On the other hand, I don’t think the Demons will need any extra incentive this week considering the match will be played in front of an expected 80,000 fans, and Melbourne has performed really strongly on Queen’s Birthday in recent history.

Collingwood, on the other hand, has the opportunity to throw everything at this week’s game in the knowledge that it has a week off next round. The flip side could be that the injury toll from last weekend’s match will be a difficult one to manage, and was a real dampener on a terrific performance in the west. It will be a big ask for the Magpies to hold off this talented Demon side without one of their best defenders and leading goal scorer.

But the Magpie midfield is still at full strength and remains the cornerstone of the Collingwood game plan. The Demons are also missing their spearhead in Hogan and their best ruckman, so the injury factor is not exclusive to Collingwood.

This is a really difficult game to forecast. For me, the most important player on the ground could be Brodie Grundy and whether he can really take the game by the scruff of the neck. On the other hand, Melbourne’s midfield is full of energy and grunt and will be difficult to contain.

It should be a terrific Queen’s Birthday encounter, considering both teams have plenty to play for and have been in good form.

By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86