Collingwoodfc.com.au has enlisted David Natoli aka DaVe86 to write this year's match previews.  David writes what are arguably, the most popular Magpie previews published on the internet.  This is his second season writing for the club website.  Please note his views are not of the clubs but of a passionate, knowledgeable member of the Magpie Army.

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My weekly match previews are back again after a six-week break while I travelled around Europe (check out the snaps below). My Collingwood guernsey came on the journey with me and visited all the main historical sites. Since returning to chilly Melbourne, I’ve spent a lot of time catching up on all the football news.

It is a fantastic week for me to return to writing as I have the opportunity to preview the greatest rivalry in AFL football. Carlton host Collingwood at the MCG this Saturday afternoon in the biggest match of round seventeen. The game is already a sell out with 90,000 fans expected. The game will also be broadcast live into Victoria for those who have missed out on tickets.

Until last week, Carlton seemed a lock in the top four and a sneaky premiership chance. The Western Bulldogs however exposed Carlton last Sunday, and the Blues now face a real fight to hold their top-four position. With a bye and matches against Collingwood and Hawthorn still to come, every game is a mini-final for the Blues. This is compounded by the fact that West Coast and Hawthorn have easier draws to finish the season and the Eagles in particular have had both their byes already.

Of most concern for Carlton is the fact that it has only beaten one top eight side this year (Sydney on two occasions). This point may be overstated slightly as the Blues challenged Collingwood and Geelong, and also drew with Essendon. Nonetheless, Carlton needs to claim some big scalps over the next two months to hold its spot in the top four.

Carlton’s greatest challenge at the beginning of the year was solidifying its key position posts on the ground. The backline seemed thin, while the forward line needed work. Carlton has definitely improved in these areas in 2011 with guys like Duigan and Laidler making an impression, which has allowed Waite to remain a permanent forward. However, the Blues will be without their key forward Jarrad Waite and key defender Michael Jamison. This leaves massive holes in the Carlton side and forces a heavy reliance on inexperienced players to fill the void.

Collingwood on the other hand continues to go from strength to strength. Over the past few years, the Magpies have always been a better second half of the year side, and I think the same is applying in 2011. Prior to leaving for Europe, I was slightly concerned with the lack of intensity Collingwood was playing at. The past fortnight has seen a massive lift in intensity and tackling pressure and the Magpies are seemingly starting to build for September.

It is not as if the Magpies are without injury concerns either. In essence, the Pies are also without their key forward Chris Dawes and key defender Nathan Brown. However, Chris Tarrant has been an incredible recruit to cover defence, while Travis Cloke is in career best form up forward.

It goes without saying that if the Blues are to cause an upset on Saturday, they need to dominate in the clearances and generate far more run from defence. Without an influential tall forward and an under-strength defence, Carlton is going to rely on smalls to kick a lot of its score and will also be relying on a strong forward zone to lock the ball in its own attacking half.

Recent History
The Magpies have won the past four encounters against the Blues quite comfortably. However, Carlton definitely challenged Collingwood in the round three clash earlier in the year despite eventually losing by 28 points.

Dane Swan was Collingwood’s most prolific ball-winner with 34 disposals, but was not overly damaging. Ben Johnson on the other hand was very damaging with his 26 disposals. Jarryd Blair caused nightmares for the Blues up forward, kicking five goals. Chris Dawes and Travis Cloke improved as the match wore on, eventually booting three and two goals respectively. Carlton, Judd was the most prolific ball winner with 24 disposals and Garlett was Carlton’s most dangerous forward with three goals.

At the Selection Table
Collingwood may potentially regain Alan Didak this week if he passes a fitness test. Didak’s form was on the improve before he injured his calf against Sydney and should be an automatic selection if declared fit. Dale Thomas was subbed off in the third quarter last week after hurting his knee, but he has already declared himself fit for Saturday’s game. Thomas was named best on ground in the coaches’ votes despite playing less than 60% match-time. In other news for Collingwood, Ben Johnson, Brent Macaffer and John McCarthy are all pushing for selection in the VFL, while Dayne Beams remains two weeks away with a foot fracture. Chris Dawes is at least a month away from returning. Lachie Keeffe is likely to get another chance despite been quiet on the weekend.

Brett Ratten has a serious dilemma at the selection table this week. First and foremost he needs to sure up his key positions. This could see Setanta O’Hailpin return to play forward or potentially Matthew Watson recalled to play full back. Watson played his last game against Collingwood in round three and was eventually monstered by Cloke and Dawes. However, he may be in line for a recall considering Jamison is out and the Blues lack tall defensive options. Further, Collingwood is without Dawes so Watson could be matched up against second gamer Keeffe. Lachlan Henderson continues to be educated as a defender, although if Watson is recalled to the side then Ratten may be tempted to throw him forward again.

Focus on Collingwood
This is no doubt a danger game for the Magpies. Carlton is going to throw everything at Collingwood and the Pies have to be prepared. Since the Sydney game, Collingwood has really lifted its efficiency around the stoppages and the return of Darren Jolly has definitely assisted in this area. Collingwood is nearly impossible to beat when it is winning clearances because it is able to get the ball forward quickly and set up an extremely disciplined forward press.

Key Players
Alan Toovey - The Magpies need to account for Betts and Garlett up forward and Toovey is likely to take the Garlett match-up, with Harry O’Brien taking Betts.  There is no one in the league that can stop Garlett at full steam and Betts has had a history of sneaking under Harry’s guard from time to time. Expect Carlton to open up the forward line to try and get these two one-out. I am a massive Alan Toovey fan and his form in 2011 has been impeccable. He was brilliant against North Melbourne last week and he was not afraid to take the game on. For a guy with poor foot-skills, he makes very few mistakes and can be quite damaging at times.

Travis Cloke - According to Heath Shaw on One Week at a Time, Cloke is Collingwood’s most important player and the one guy the side can’t do without. He is in career best form and his kicking for goal has improved. Cloke is a man playing with confidence and has hit the peak of his abilities. He becomes even more important to the side without Chris Dawes as he is the main focal point and will draw multiple defenders. Bower is likely to take the match-up, however he is still searching for match fitness after an injury interrupted year. Otherwise Henderson will be thrown the challenge after he stood Barry Hall last week.

Darren Jolly - If Cloke is Collingwood’s most important player, Jolly is the second most important. He was fantastic last week in the ruck against the in-form Goldstein and his ability to win the ball in goal-scoring positions makes him so valuable. This week, Jolly faces the enormous task of rucking against Warnock and Kreuzer. If Collingwood is able to nullify the influence of the Carlton big-men, then I find it very unlikely that the Blues will even threaten on Saturday.

Ben Reid - Many are actually talking about Reid as the potential All-Australian Centre Half Back this year. He is an extremely courageous player who has no fear backing into packs to take the relieving mark. Against Hawthorn, Reid’s positioning was fantastic as the loose man in defence and he was able to chop off a number of forward entries. Last week, Reid displayed his ability to play on a quality opponent, totally shutting down Drew Petrie. He is strong body to body and quick off the mark. He also possesses a damaging left foot. Carlton has to be aware of Ben Reid this week. It is without its key forward and has to be careful not to bomb it long if a small forward line is in place. If it is forced to kick it long inside 50, then Reid is likely to take a lot of uncontested marks.

Dale Thomas - I think Dale will poll very well in the Brownlow this year and may have been a real roughie to win if he had not been suspended. After a slow start to the year, Thomas has put together a stellar season and he has elevated his status in the game. Importantly, he is a big game player and will be right at home in front of 90,000 fans at the MCG. Provided he did not receive any serious damage to his knee in round sixteen, expect another big game from Daisy on Saturday.

Focus on Carlton
The message is clear for Carlton this week...it needs to dominate the clearances. As I said earlier, the Blues have been the best clearance side in the competition to date, but was beaten last weekend. Breaking even around the stoppages will not do...the Blues need to smash the Magpies through the midfield. If Collingwood is able to get a similar amount of forward 50 entries, then it has a better forward line and a better defence so should be able to kick a winning score.

Carlton’s intensity needs to lift this week, and the Blues also need to generate more run. Despite a poor record against Collingwood over the past few years, there have been multiple times where Carlton’s run and carry has worried the Magpies.

Key Players
Chris Judd - All eyes will be on Judd this week. He always plays well against Collingwood, and will probably pick up 30 possessions yet again. However, the Bulldogs were able to expose Judd by double-teaming him with Boyd and Cooney. By the end of the game, Judd had his 30 disposals but he also allowed his opponents too much of the ball. Collingwood has employed similar tactics in the past. Often, the Magpies have used Thomas or Wellingham head to head with Judd in an attempt to hurt him defensively. Collingwood never tightly tags opponents, and the same will apply this week even though Judd is clearly the best player in the competition. Luke Ball is likely to square off with Judd around the stoppages with a number of midfielders rotating through him in the general field of play. There will be times where Swan, Pendlebury, Wellingham and Thomas are all responsible for Judd.

Marc Murphy - Murphy is having an incredibly good year. He is averaging 29 disposals a game and just under five tackles. He is also averaging a goal a game. If opponents are deciding to go head to head against Judd, then Murphy is likely to gain more attention from taggers. Although the Magpies will not tag him, he is likely to square off against Sharrod Wellingham.

Matthew Kreuzer - With Waite down, Kreuzer will have more responsibility as a key forward this week. He has been impressive since returning to the side and his mobility is still a strength. Along with Warnock, the Blues need to gain the ascendency in the ruck and especially need to dominate when Leigh Brown is in the centre.

Paul Bower - Bower has had his year destroyed by injury. He returned to the senior side last week but did not look match-fit. In fact, Ratten opted to switch him forward to help cover for the void of Waite. Bower is an extremely important player to Carlton. When Bower and Jamison are fully fit, Carlton’s defence looks much stronger. Without Jamison, Bower needs to step up and take charge of the backline.

Mitch Robinson - Robinson has really established himself as a key player in the Carlton side. Although he is prone to the odd mistake, he has really set the tone for the Blues in terms of the effort and intensity that is required to take the side to the top four. He gives Carlton a lift and toughens them up. His past month has been particularly impressive and he is perhaps one of Carlton’s most important players.

The Wrap-Up
When Carlton’s midfield is on song, it can match it with any side in the competition. Guys like Ellard and Mitch Robinson have added an extra dimension to the midfield in 2011 which has allowed Murphy, Gibbs and Judd more freedom. However, Collingwood also possesses a stellar midfield, with Thomas and Pendlebury among the competitions best right now. Dane Swan is also returning to his best form. Both sides also possess high quality ruckmen.
The difference between the two sides is that Collingwood’s defence is very settled and has the flexibility to cover the Carlton forwards. Up the other end, Collingwood’s forward line is in top nick and will expose an inexperienced Carlton defence.

Therefore, unless Carlton completely dominates through the midfield, I can’t see it causing the upset this weekend. Nonetheless, anything is possible when Carlton play Collingwood and the Blues will definitely be fancying themselves as a real chance. They have a point to prove and plenty of incentive to win. A top four spot is up for grabs.

I have no doubt that Carlton will challenge Collingwood this week. I just think the Pies are more efficient defensively and offensively and will have the answers at the end of the day.

Collingwood by 25 points.
By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86



Me with the President of the United States, calling 1300 MAGPIE to get him to sign up!



Standing next to the Prince but was hoping for a meeting with Kate.