Since publishing his first report on Nick's Bulletin Board in early 2005, DaVe86 has become a weekly favourite among the passionate online Magpie Army receiving thousands of views for each article.
The articles are lengthy and have been published in their entirety as the club did not want to hinder DaVe86's creativity during the writing process.
The views expressed in DaVe86's previews are solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Collingwood Football Club.
It has definitely been an interesting week to be a Collingwood supporter.
However, it is important to take a step back and view the situation for what it is. It is far too easy to form the opinion that it has been the change of coach that has led to the slow start to 2012.
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Let’s also remember that it is only round three and both of Collingwood’s losses have come at the hands of the two current premiership favourites.
The major concern for Nathan Buckley at the moment would be the lack of forward pressure and the general lack of midfield pressure the side is applying. Friday night’s game against Carlton was the worst display of tackling and defensive pressure I have seen from the Collingwood Football Club in five years. It left the backline terribly exposed, and without key personnel it leaked 18 goals.
Injuries and lack of form are valid excuses, but lack of effort is not. You would expect a fired up and committed Collingwood side this Saturday.
Turning the attention to the opposition this weekend, and the Magpies are facing a significantly improved Port Adelaide side at Etihad Stadium. At the beginning of the year this game would have seemed an easy win for Collingwood.
However, Port Adelaide has had a terrific pre-season and has really toughened up. The Power are playing terrific contested football and are matching it with the best around the stoppages. Port Adelaide really pushed a strong Sydney on ball unit last week.
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The recruitment of Brad Ebert and John McCarthy has really added depth to the midfield as well. At full strength Port Adelaide also has an underrated forward line and defence. Considering Collingwood’s attack on the football was down against Carlton, Port Adelaide will challenge the star-studded Magpie midfield this round.
Undoubtedly, Port Adelaide will enter this game full of confidence. Due to injury, Collingwood is undermanned and has so far played without the confidence we have become accustomed to. However, the Magpies are typically at their most dangerous with their backs against the wall.
At the selection table
Nathan Buckley will ask the question whether or not to bring back Alan Didak and Nathan Brown this week. With Ben Reid absent, Brown’s potential availability in particular is crucial. However, Buckley is may avoid temptation and give Brown and Didak another week at VFL level. Ben Johnson on the other hand might be more likely to come back into the side after three games in the VFL. His run and carry is definitely missing. Simon Buckley will also come into contention following impressive VFL form.
Watch Didak, Johnson and Brown's VFL highlights from last Saturday
Port Adelaide has a few selection dilemmas as well with John Butcher and Brent Renouf pushing for selection. Darren Pfeiffer is also impressing in the SANFL and may get his chance at AFL this weekend due to his bigger body. Primus would be keen for Butcher in particular to return considering Collingwood is very undermanned down back without Chris Tarrant and Ben Reid and his combination with Schulz, Stewart and Westhoff will be difficult for the Magpies to contain.
Where the game will be won and lost
The biggest battle this week will be in the midfield. Port Adelaide has been very impressive around the stoppages. If it can win out of the centre, its forward line will stretch the undermanned Collingwood defence.
At the other end of the ground, the Power match up nicely against the Collingwood forwards. Alipate Carlile and Troy Chaplin are very underrated defenders.
Nonetheless, Collingwood still has the star power in the middle and should win the midfield battle. The Magpies need a fiercer attack on the footy and need to win the ball more around the clearances. Darren Jolly’s form has been down, but he will be up against a rookie in Jarrad Redden and should be able to out-muscle him. On the other hand, Redden was very impressive against Shane Mumford last week and may fancy himself to compete well against an experience opponent this week.
Player Analysis
Collingwood
Lachlan Keeffe - With Reid, Tarrant and Brown all out of the side, Keeffe deserves a pat on the back for his efforts to start the year. He is playing on the best opposition forward and giving his all. He is skinny but quite strong and has decent agility for his size at 204cm. For a guy who is still finding his feet at AFL level, he has a massive task this weekend. Port Adelaide has two guys who can play forward or ruck in Stewart and Westhoff. Jay Schulz is also an underrated forward. If John Butcher plays, Collingwood’s defence could be be really stretched. Port Adelaide rotates its forwards a lot and Keeffe will be expected to adapt to a number of opponents on the day. Either way, I thought Keeffe was one of the few Collingwood players who could hold his head high after the Carlton loss, and he has impressed me so far this year in the absence of Tarrant and Reid.
Dayne Beams - Beams had a restricted pre-season and is still not at his peak match fitness after playing only two games. However, with Luke Ball injured, Beams becomes crucial as he needs to fill the void. As a fourth year player, Beams needs to take the step up and become his side’s number one in and under. The time is right for Beams to really break out. Steele Sidebottom will also be important to help fill Luke Ball’s absence and needs to help share the burden with Beams. Port Adelaide has a strong on-ball unit which is winning its share of contested footy. Beams and Sidebottom need to hit in hard and get first hands on the footy. They both should see significantly more midfield time.
Scott Pendlebury - Scott is coming off one of his worst games in his career and will no bounce back this weekend. Along with Dane Swan, the Magpies need his class in the midfield. Both Pendlebury and Swan have terrific records against the Power and should be fired up after lowering their colours in round three.
Port Adelaide
John McCarthy - The former Magpie will be very keen to impress against his old side on Saturday. McCarthy left on good terms with Collingwood and is making the most of his opportunity at Port Adelaide. The irony is that with all the Magpie injuries, he would most likely be in the top 22 right now. He has improved his fitness base so that he can play more midfield time and he is winning more of the football than ever before. He was a clever selection from Port Adelaide and has added great depth to the side.
Jay Schulz - He could be the real x-factor for the Power on the weekend given the absences from the Collingwood backline. He is a very accurate shot on goal and has a good set of hands. He has a knack of kicking a bag of goals as well. Port Adelaide needs to win clearances and get the ball quickly inside forward. This will ensure the Power get one-on-one match-ups and can really stretch the Collingwood defence.
Danyle Pearce - I think this is a really defining year for Pearce. He was heavily tagged last year and his numbers were down. However, his early season form has been promising and he has gone back to playing as a running defender. If he is loose, he can tear a game up with his pace and skills. Therefore, Collingwood’s forward pressure will need to be right up to slow Pearce down.
The wrap up
It looms as a crucial match for Collingwood. A win will see it reach two wins and two losses and still well-placed considering the amount of players who will be fit and available by mid-year. A loss on the other hand will see the team at one and three ahead of its four-day turnaround for ANZAC Day.
Port Adelaide will consider this an opportunity to take a big scalp. It is a vastly improved side, but ultimately has failed to get across the line against both Essendon and Sydney in recent weeks.
I do think we will see a fired up Magpie side this weekend and the stars in the midfield will bounce back to form.
By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86
