Since publishing his first report on Nick's Bulletin Board in early 2005, DaVe86 has become a weekly favourite among the passionate online Magpie Army receiving thousands of views for each article.
The articles are lengthy and have been published in their entirety as the club did not want to hinder DaVe86's creativity during the writing process.
The views expressed in DaVe86's previews are solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Collingwood Football Club.
In a week fuelled by off-field controversy, the blockbuster between Collingwood and Hawthorn this Friday night has somewhat slipped under the radar.
Nonetheless, the eyes of the football world will be on the MCG this Friday night in the round 21 clash between the top of the table Hawks and the in-form Magpies.
The last fortnight has shown how quickly things can change in football. After a loss to Gold Coast and an unconvincing win against Greater Western Sydney, the Magpies were written off as a genuine threat to the top sides in the competition.
However, big wins over Essendon and Sydney in consecutive weeks has well and truly quashed any ideas that Collingwood is no longer a force.
Despite the two wins, you get the feeling however that Collingwood needs to prove itself against the Hawks. Hawthorn has had Collingwood’s measure over the last two years and plays a brand of football that has traditionally worried Nathan Buckley’s men. But if Collingwood can beat the Hawks this Friday night, then it has beaten three of the top four sides in the competition and must be considered a real chance to win the premiership in 2013.
Despite comfortably sitting in top spot on the ladder, Hawthorn has had an up-and-down fortnight. Following a 41-point loss to Richmond in round 19, many expected the Hawks to come out firing against St Kilda last round. Despite a solid 46-point victory, I felt that the Hawks were unconvincing and struggled to put away a determined Saints outfit.
With three weeks to go until the finals, coach Alastair Clarkson will be looking to get his side back to its best and start building some momentum. He will welcome back a number of key players in the upcoming weeks, which will help the cause. The Hawks were the dominant side in 2012 but fell agonisingly short in the Grand Final, so Clarkson knows that his side must hit top gear when it counts.
Weather could play a factor with strong winds predicted. Hawthorn has been able to cut up the Collingwood defence in the past few encounters through precision passing. The weather could therefore be a factor, as strong blustery conditions may affect the skill level in the match. When these sides last met back in round three, Collingwood actually skipped away to a 22-point lead in wet conditions. When the weather dried up, the Hawks took full control. Therefore, I don’t think Buckley would mind if he sees wet and windy conditions on Friday night.
Recent History
Since the Preliminary Final loss to Collingwood in 2011, the Hawks have gone on to win the next four encounters by an average of 40 points. Hawthorn has scored an average of 138 points in these games, with its forward line proving far too much for the Magpies to handle.
In round three earlier this year, a 15-goal to six second half ensured a 55-point victory to the Hawks. Luke Hodge was at his best with 31 disposals and two goals, while Lance Franklin and Jarryd Roughead kicked four and three goals respectively. The goals were also well shared by Shaun Burgoyne and Luke Breust who also kicked three each and Bradley Hill was dangerous with two. Grant Birchall was also very good with 28 disposals off half back and Sam Mitchell continued his dominance over Collingwood with 27 disposals.
For the Magpies, Dane Swan was prominent with 33 disposals while Cloke proved too big and strong with five goals. In fact, Cloke has kicked 11 goals in his past two games against the Hawks. Jamie Elliott continued his strong early season form with three goals.
At the Selection Table
For the first time in over two years, Collingwood went in unchanged into last week’s clash against Sydney. The same thing may happen again this week, although there are a number of players at VFL level pressing for selection.
In particular, Buckley again has a conundrum when picking his preferred ruck division. Brodie Grundy continued his strong form and did a great job on Mike Pyke and Shane Mumford in only his third game but the availability of Darren Jolly will give Buckley something to think about.
I feel that Jolly is most likely to resume at VFL level to build match fitness. Having played three very physical opening games, the temptation will also be to freshen up Grundy, in which case Jarrod Witts or Ben Hudson are on standby.
Also in strong form at VFL level are Paul Seedsman, Kyle Martin and Andrew Krakouer. Alan Didak missed last week’s VFL game but has also been in good touch and is still very keen to break back into the side. In further positive news, Dale Thomas looks set to return from injury at VFL level in a late bid to return to the senior team before finals. Clinton Young still remains a fortnight away.
Turning focus onto Hawthorn, and the return of ‘Buddy’ Franklin will be the major talking point. An already potent forward line will be boosted by Franklin’s presence, and this will really stretch a Collingwood defence that has struggled to deal with talls over the past few rounds.
Also on the selection radar will be Luke Hodge, Grant Birchall and Max Bailey, all who face fitness tests following injury. Liam Shiels returned through the VFL last week and put in a strong performance. He may be recalled to perform a tagging job on one of Collingwood’s gun midfielders. Others on the injury list and therefore unavailable for this week’s game include Matthew Suckling, Xavier Ellis and Ryan Schoenmakers.
Focus on Collingwood
There is a lot to like about the way Collingwood has performed over the past fortnight. Most pleasing is the fact that Buckley has been able to work with a settled midfield. Last round, the fab four of Luke Ball, Dane Swan, Scott Pendlebury and Dayne Beams all had over 30 possessions and dominated the Sydney midfield, which is widely regarded as the best in the competition.
The availability of these four stars has meant that Harry O’Brien and Steele Sidebottom have been able to play more on a wing or across half back, while Jarryd Blair looks comfortable as a forward pocket. Brent Macaffer has added the defensive balance, doing successful tagging jobs on Dyson Heppell and Kieren Jack in the last two rounds. The availability of Lachlan Keeffe has also allowed Ben Reid to play purely as a forward. This has given the Collingwood forward line a whole new dimension.
The one concern though for Nathan Buckley would be the fact that power forwards have been getting a stranglehold of Collingwood this year. In particular, Jeremy Cameron and Kurt Tippett kicked seven and six goals respectively.
Reid’s presence in the forward line is having significant scoreboard impact, but this may be neutralised by his absence down back. Reid’s ability to float through a pack and take an intercept mark is missing. If Reid is to stay forward, the Magpies will need more from Nick Maxwell and Tyson Goldsack in terms of assistance for Nathan Brown and Keeffe.
This is a challenge against the Hawthorn forward line as every player is so dangerous and it is a big risk to peel off to assist with someone else’s man.
Dane Swan – Typically I don’t write about Dane Swan because his numbers speak for themself. However, I think his form has been particularly good over the past fortnight and he has proved very damaging. With an average of 31.6 disposals and close to a goal a game, Swan remains one of the premier midfielders in the competition and he looks even more comfortable with Ball and Beams there to help out. He looks very focused and has had more score assists than any other Magpie this year, which underlines his importance to the team.
Tyson Goldsack – Many underestimate how valuable Goldsack is. I get the feeling, however, that Buckley is very appreciative to have him back in the side. With Reid up forward, Goldsack is playing an important role down back, playing on tall or small opponents. Buckley is so confident in Goldsack that he was willing to substitute Nathan Brown out of the game at a critical time last week and give Goldsack the task of minding Sydney’s other tall forwards. He may be an outside chance to line up next to Franklin this week given the fact Buddy kicks a lot of his goals at ground level and has not taken too many contested marks in his most recent games. Otherwise, he is also a decent match up for players such as Breust or Jack Gunston. The great thing about Goldsack is that Buckley could also swing him forward and rotate with Ben Reid as a Plan B.
Josh Thomas – The young Magpie has had a wretched run with injury over his first few years at the club. However, he has turned it around in 2013 and has repaid the patience the club has shown in him. He has managed 15 games this season, averaging 18 possessions per game. His match last week against Sydney was perhaps his best to date, kicking two crucial goals from 21 disposals. It was a new role for Thomas, playing more as a forward flanker. In this role, he is expected to put on significant defensive pressure. He combined well with Jarryd Blair and Jamie Elliott in this role. However, his real value is his explosiveness from contested situations and his good goal sense. With Dale Thomas, Andrew Krakouer and Alan Didak all pressing for selection leading into finals, Josh Thomas knows he needs to maintain his form to keep in the side. To date, he has earned his spot and has given Collingwood supporters a lot to be excited about over the next few years. Collingwood has recognised this and signed him up to a new contract this week which should give the youngster a boost considering it has been a big effort to get his body right and break into the side.
Jarryd Blair – The little man has been asked to play a midfield role this year and he has given his all week, in week out. However, with the midfield now close to full strength, Blair looks right at home as a small forward. He kicked two goals last week but was also a part of so many others. His tackling pressure sets the standard. At the beginning of the year, I thought that Collingwood’s biggest weakness seemed to be the lack of dangerous small forward options. The presence of Blair up forward along with Elliott has given Collingwood a new dimension. In particular, the defensive pressure has been turned right up, and Blair is also a very clever crumber and reader of the play.
Focus on Hawthorn
Without doubt, Hawthorn is the most talented team in the competition with star quality across every line. The defence has been significantly bolstered by Brian Lake while the injection of young players like Hill has added spark to the midfield.
The forward line remains the main strength with the perfect balance of talls and smalls and Breust and Gunston fitting in somewhere in between.
The Hawks rank number one in the competition for marks inside 50, although Collingwood ranks closely behind in second.
Hawthorn’s other key is the run out of defence and ability to pinpoint its way through a zone defence. With precision left foot kicks all over the field, it is near impossible to beat Hawthorn in a shootout where both sides have space to work with. The only way to beat the Hawks is to stop this free flowing movement and restrict the forward 50 entries. Even when restricting these entries, Hawthorn are so efficient when the ball in up forward and have so many options to score.
Nonetheless, the one area where Hawthorn has looked particularly vulnerable over the past fortnight has been through the middle. The Hawks aren’t the quickest side through the midfield, and key players such as Mitchell, Sewell, Hodge and Burgoyne are all around the 30-year-old age bracket. Hawthorn has lost the contested possession statistic over the past two weeks and could only break even with St Kilda in stoppage clearances.
Lance Franklin – With the big man almost certain to return this week, Buckley will be left with the massive challenge of finding a way to stop him. If Essendon is Franklin’s bunny team, then Collingwood comes a very close second with the spearhead kicking 50 goals from his last 12 matches against the Pies. He was yet again influential in round three when these sides last met kicking four goals. Franklin has managed to kick 47 goals even though Alistair Clarkson’s use of him has been different this year, with Buddy often playing a decoy role to create space for the in-form Jarryd Roughead.
Jarryd Roughead – Despite the fact Buddy has been kicking less goals, Roughead has well and truly taken the mantle of Hawthorn’s number one key forward. With 59 goals for the year, he is a favourite for the Coleman Medal and is proving a handful for every defence he comes up against. He is so hard to stop as he can go into the ruck, play through the midfield or also play deep in the goal square. He is so agile for a big guy yet he is also a strong contested mark. He is likely to get the job on Nathan Brown this week who has had a roller-coaster ride with key big men over the past month. Otherwise, he will square off against Lachlan Keeffe who has looked good one-on-one with key forwards so far.
Luke Breust – In my opinion, Breust is one of the most underrated players in the competition. He is one of Hawthorn’s leading goal assist players whilst also kicking 31 goals of his own this year. He also average four tackles a game, many of which are in the forward 50. He is a difficult match-up as he can play through the midfield but he has such a good goal sense. He is another Hawk with a good record against Collingwood. The Magpies defenders must be careful not to give Breust too much latitude, as he will hit the scoreboard regularly.
Sam Mitchell – It is hard to write a preview about Hawthorn and Collingwood without mentioning Sam Mitchell. The prime Hawthorn midfielder continues to be one of the most consistent players in the AFL and has a particular liking for the Magpies. Collingwood has not had a designated tagger over the past few years and Mitchell has often dined out on the Collingwood midfield, averaging 30 disposals in his past four matches against the Magpies. It often feels as if Mitchell is beating Collingwood by himself as he dominates the clearances and feeds it out to his fellow midfielders constantly. Mitchell has spent more time across half back this year, averaging 28 disposals a match. When Clarkson needs grunt in the midfield, he still turns to Mitchell to provide that. For mine, Buckley will no doubt use Macaffer as a defensive tagger on Mitchell this week to try and curb his influence. If Mitchell starts at half back, expect Macaffer to start there as well considering Macaffer is an accomplished mid-sized forward.
The Wrap Up
A lot will depend on the midfield battle. With such a potent forward line, Hawthorn only needs to break even around stoppages and the forwards will do the rest.
Collingwood’s star-studded midfield needs to lead from the front. However, winning the midfield battle is only part of the challenge. Once the ball is inside 50, the Magpies need to either score efficiently (meaning the forwards needs to have their kicking boots on!) or lock it in and allow the midfielders to kick stoppage goals. If Collingwood’s forward line is unable to contain Hawthorn’s rebound out of defence, then any ascendency it will gain through the middle will count for little.
On paper, Collingwood matches up well with Hawthorn’s forward line. However, the Hawks are the masters at spreading the Magpie defenders and ensuring one on one battles. Therefore, Collingwood’s best form of defence is again to win the midfield battle and ensure Hawthorn’s ball movement is restricted. This will in turn ensure enough defenders can get back to guard the space.
Collingwood by 11
By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86
