Round twenty two sees Collingwood host the Brisbane Lions at the MCG on Saturday night. It is a battle between first and fifteenth on the ladder, and the Magpies will enter the game as unbackable favourites.
After a solid and workmanlike victory over St Kilda, Collingwood is in a very nice position with finals around the corner. Much of the focus now for Mick Malthouse will be on finals preparation and ensuring every player is at his peak come September.
Click here to view the broadcast guide for the round 22 match.
The only real concern for Malthouse will be the number of players short on match fitness. Alan Didak has not played a full game since he returned to the squad in round twenty, Chris Dawes and Alan Toovey will return to the side either this week or next, while Nick Maxwell and Heath Shaw will not be available until finals.
Turning the focus onto Brisbane and it has clearly been a season it would prefer to forget. The Lions have improved as the year has progressed and there are a number of promising signs leading into 2012. They have at least been competitive and the midfield is looking much stronger. They are coming off a good win against local rivals Gold Coast last week.
It has to be noted that the Lions had a nightmare pre-season, losing several players to the Gold Coast or rival teams, the sacking of Fevola, and also having a number of players injured. Injuries have cruelled Brisbane all year in every position on the field. A big pre-season should see the Lions climb up the ladder in 2012.
Although I do not think Brisbane will provide a real challenge to Collingwood, it is an opportunity to regain a bit of respect and finish off the year with some confidence.
Recent History
Funnily enough, Brisbane is the only side this year I have previewed who won its last game against Collingwood. In fact, the Lions were the only side in 2010 that the Magpies were unable to defeat.
This is the first opportunity in 2011 these two sides have met, and you have to turn the clock back to round ten last year for the previous encounter. After leading for most of the night, the Lions completely stunned the Magpies in the last quarter with Fevola and Brown kicking four goals each for the match. Luke Power was declared best on ground with 35 disposals. Dale Thomas polled two votes with 34 disposals, while Staker polled one with 29 disposals and 12 marks.
The Lions eventually won by eight points. It would be Collingwood’s last defeat until round twenty two.
Focus on Collingwood
What stood out to me most about Collingwood last week was how good the defence is. The depth in it is quite outstanding. Presently, the side is without key players such as Nathan Brown, Shaw and Toovey, while Maxwell played forward last week. Nevertheless, Ben Reid continues to make his claim for an All-Australian position at centre halfback and Harry O’Brien regained some form last week following a great job on Stephen Milne.
Tyson Goldsack - The absence of Nick Maxwell opens up the opportunity for Goldsack to really cement his spot. Up until last week, I thought Goldsack would be the unlucky player to make way for Toovey. Tyson has not set the world on fire; however he has been very solid and reliable down back. I feel very comfortable with Goldsack in the side and his versatility provides a number of options to Malthouse to use him as a defensive forward, midfield stopper or key backman.
Dale Thomas - I continue to marvel at Dale Thomas’ form. He was super last week with 31 disposals and his fitness is far better than I have even seen from him in the past. He threatens to really tear the game up on Saturday night. He could get Polkinghorne as an opponent.
Harry O’Brien - Harry’s form in 2011 has been patchy, but he returned to the side last week with immediate effect and totally towelled up Milne. He becomes a crucial player to Collingwood leading into finals as all the sides in the top four have terrific small forwards. He’ll likely have jobs on Betts, Rioli and Steve Johnson, so his importance cannot be understated. This week, he’ll likely get the job on Todd Banfield, a player who has really impressed me all year with his work ethic.
Ben Johnson - He continues to go about his business week in week out with little fuss, but he is in great form leading into finals. Johnson is winning the ball in really dangerous positions this year, and he continues to be thrown big jobs.
Focus on Brisbane
When the Lions entered the 2011 season, my major concern was how thin the midfield looked on paper. One of the pleasing signs to come out of this season has been the emergence of Rockliff and Redden as future stars of the competition. With Daniel Rich back this week, the midfield is significantly bolstered. Simon Black and Luke Power are always steady and should play on in 2012, with first round draft pick Jared Polec developing as a key player. With no Merrett down back, it is important that the Lions compete in the midfield. Otherwise the height of the Collingwood forward line will be telling.
Tom Rockliff - Rockliff broke out in 2010 and has really stamped his name on the competition this year. He is an absolute ball magnet, averaging nearly 28 disposals. He has been compared to Dane Swan in the sense that he has a huge motor, a solid frame and the ability to win the ball at will. He’ll pick up at least 30 disposals on Saturday night given the Magpies will not tag him.
Jack Redden - He has probably been the real highlight for Brisbane this year, averaging 24 disposals and really cementing himself as a core player of the Brisbane midfield. At only 20 years of age, he has a bright future and is another one who continues to sneak under the radar of opponents. Along with Rockliff, he is the future of the Lions midfield.
Todd Banfield - Considering Banfield has not had Fevola or Brown to crumb off, I have been really impressed with his output this year. He is hard to miss on the field with his bright red hair and his speed is a real asset. He has kicked 23 goals this year which is a pretty good return for a small forward, but I have been most impressed by his work ethic and defensive pressure.
Matthew Leunberger - Many have Leunberger as the backup ruckman to Dean Cox in the All Australian side. It is fair recognition for a highly rated player who has taken a while to adjust to AFL. He has always suffered injuries and it took him a while to fill out. At 23, he is now hitting his peak, and his versatility as a ruckman is really beginning to show through. He faces the tough task this week of competing against the in-form Darren Jolly.
The Wrap Up
I genuinely feel as if the Lions are improving and on the right track. However they are a long way off being competitive against the Magpies at the MCG. I anticipate a fairly even start to the game, with Collingwood eventually putting the foot down to win quite comfortably.
It should be a fairly open game, with both midfields winning a lot of the footy. However, the strength of Collingwood’s forward line, coupled with its experience down back will prove the telling factor.
Magpies by 75
By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86
