Since publishing his first report on Nick's Bulletin Board in early 2005, DaVe86 has become a weekly favourite among the passionate online Magpie Army receiving thousands of views for each article.
The articles are lengthy and have been published in their entirety as the club did not want to hinder DaVe86's creativity during the writing process.
The views expressed in DaVe86's previews are solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Collingwood Football Club.
The home and away season draws to a close this weekend and a wide-open finals series awaits us.
Collingwood’s second half of the year has been very inconsistent. The Magpies have been completely outplayed by North Melbourne and West Coast in the past fortnight and have forfeited their spot in the top four. Nonetheless, a win against Essendon this Saturday night will see the Magpies finish back in the top four provided West Coast loses to Hawthorn.
Collingwood’s opponent this weekend has also struggled of late. The Bombers were a genuine top four contender at the midway point of the year but have faded out drastically and will now miss the finals series. Essendon has looked tired and injured. Yet they should never be underestimated in games against Collingwood, and they will be out to regain a bit of pride and confidence before yet another gruelling pre-season.
Having said all that about Essendon, the Magpies are looking equally as tired and out of form. Despite the fact that Collingwood has now managed to get its top 22 players back out on the park and has a pretty healthy list to pick from, a number of the frontline players are devoid of confidence or short of match fitness. Even the elite players such as Scott Pendlebury and Steele Sidebottom have lacked their usual effectiveness in recent weeks.
Much of the focus has been on the form of Travis Cloke and Chris Dawes. Neither player has kicked a goal in the past fortnight and both appear to be lacking confidence. But there are other factors that need to be taken into consideration. First and foremost, the midfield is not providing enough inside 50s which limits the opportunities for the forward line, while the ball movement and the challenge of maintaining the level of intensity required to match the best teams have fallen short of the mark in recent weeks.
The team may be running on empty, lacking form and confidence after 22 rounds, but a win against the Bombers on the eve of finals could be the perfect medicine. It could kick-start a big month. If Cloke and Dawes get a sniff, then they are still as potent as any other forward combination going around.
You get the feeling, however, that it is going to be a scrappy game on Saturday night between two sides that are out of touch. When these two sides last met on ANZAC Day, it was the Magpies who scraped in for a gritty one-point victory. This game may not be as electric as that one, but the winner will have to be equally as gritty to get across the line.
At the Selection Table
Collingwood will look to get its best finals team on the park. Apart from Luke Ball, Lachlan Keeffe, Caolan Mooney and Marley Williams, the Magpies have a full list to choose from.
The exciting news for Collingwood fans is that Andrew Krakouer looks set to make a remarkable return to AFL Football following a pre-season knee reconstruction. He has now put four solid weeks together at VFL level, spending a lot of time in the midfield. He had 27 disposals last week. Krakouer’s presence may give the Magpies the spark they need.
Darren Jolly and Nick Maxwell missed the trip to Perth last week but should be set to play this week. On the eve of finals, no risks will be taken. Nathan Buckley may opt to give ruckman Cameron Wood another chance at AFL level to ensure he has the match fitness if required in the finals.
An issue for Buckley is that the VFL team has finished for the year, but keep a sneaky eye on Jackson Paine as well following a three goal effort in the VFL last week.
Turning the focus onto Essendon, and expect David Myers and Ben Howlett to return for the final match of the year. Coach James Hird may also elect to use the final match of the year to give experience to youngsters such as Elliott Kavanagh.
Alwyn Davey has been ruled out with a hamstring injury, but Stewart Crameri is expected to play despite hurting his shoulder in last week’s loss to Richmond.
Focus on Collingwood
As I alluded to above, Collingwood has a number of issues to address right across the board. As reported on afl.com.au this week, the Magpies lost in several key statistical areas last weekend including clearances, hitouts, contested possessions, marks inside 50 and inside 50s. No doubt the form of several key players is a major concern, but I believe Buckley will be focused on rectifying those statistics first and foremost. If the Magpies improve in all the areas listed above, it gives the tall forwards more opportunity to get involved.
How can Buckley turn it around?
Collingwood’s forward line has been an issue. Collingwood has always functioned best when it has an even spread of goal kickers. Unfortunately, players such as Ben Sinclair, Jamie Elliott and Sharrod Wellingham have not been having an impact on the scoreboard, and although Alan Didak, Alex Fasolo and Tyson Goldsack are having a greater impact, I feel that there still needs to be a greater spread.
I believe the Magpies were at their best when Dayne Beams, Jarryd Blair, Krakouer and Sidebottom were also up forward. Without Ball, Beams has had to remain in the midfield, but I think it is a good opportunity to throw Sidebottom, Blair and Krakouer forward this weekend to see if Collingwood can get some extra crumbers around goal. All three read the play so well and have great goal sense.
I also believe it is time to get more speed into the middle to break the game open. It is therefore an opportunity to utilise Wellingham in the middle again. Wellingham could take on some tagging roles after both Boomer Harvey and Daniel Kerr tore the Magpies to apart in recent weeks. Didak and Fasolo could also be rotated through the middle for their class and x-factor. With Ben Johnson back, Heath Shaw can also be utilised through the middle as he provides more drive.
Player Focus - Ben Johnson
Ben made a good return to the side last week with 24 disposals, although he was still a bit rusty as you would expect after 16 weeks on the side. I truly believe Johnson has been the missing link in the side as he is a tight defender who provides a lot of run off half back. His presence will free up Heath Shaw if he wants to move more onto a wing. He is likely to get the job on a dangerous small forward this week such as Leroy Jetta. I think Johnson’s experience is going to be a vital addition leading into the finals series.
Focus on Essendon
Although the Bombers are tiring, there is no doubt that Hird and his team have made significant strides in 2012. Essendon has shown it can match it with the best sides in the competition.
David Zaharakis and Brent Stanton are quality players, but have been limited following mid-season injuries. Others have struggled to find consistency in the second half of the year.
Nonetheless, Hird will ask for one final effort from his players on Saturday night. Hird knows his opponents are also out of form, and there is a real opportunity to cause an upset and shape the final eight. The Bombers need to finish the season strong because they showed so much in the first half of the year.
With Scott Gumbleton back in the side, the forward line is dangerous and versatile, especially with Paddy Ryder still out of the side. The defence is still stable, especially when Michael Hurley is thrown back to assist. The midfield is still short of a quality player and the Bombers will need to address that over pre-season, but Jobe Watson is the Brownlow Medal favourite, and guys like Heath Hocking add some grunt. Dyson Heppell also continues to develop at a rapid rate.
Player Focus - Angus Monfries
One player who showed some form last week was Angus Monfries. In a losing cause he kicked three goals from 19 disposals. He plays his 150th for the club this week and is the sort of player that can get under Collingwood’s guard. He plays his best footy as a forward, and will benefit from the presence of Hurley, Gumbleton and Crameri in the forward line to take the best defenders.
The Wrap Up
Collingwood will go into the game as favourites and has a top four spot to play for. This is a real opportunity to put a win on the board and regain a bit of confidence before the finals begin.
But you always have to be cautious of a team with nothing to lose and pride on the line. Particularly when that side is an arch enemy.
Jobe Watson looked sore last week but will have one more big effort left in him for the year. He may need more votes to win the Brownlow and this is a big chance for him considering Collingwood has been smashed in the clearances over the past fortnight. I think Buckley may have to bite the bullet and tag Watson. In return, Hocking is likely to do the tagging job on the in form Dayne Beams.
It should be a tight contest which I am really looking forward to. Collingwood needs to come out and get the job done early. One thing the Magpies don’t need is a bruising encounter a week out from the finals. You would think the depth and star quality of the Collingwood midfield will be enough to get on top of Essendon, but nothing is certain given the way the Bombers played on ANZAC Day and the Magpies’ lacklustre performances of the past fortnight.
By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86
