Since publishing his first report on Nick's Bulletin Board in early 2005, DaVe86 has become a weekly favourite among the passionate online Magpie Army receiving thousands of views for each article.
The articles are lengthy and have been published in their entirety as the club did not want to hinder DaVe86's creativity during the writing process.
The views expressed in DaVe86's previews are solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Collingwood Football Club.
Spring is in the air and that can mean only one thing – the AFL Finals series is here. This year’s finals series is extremely hard to predict, with all sides showing vulnerabilities throughout the year.
For Collingwood to win the premiership in 2013, it must do something no other side has managed under the current finals system: win from outside the top four.
Before casting their focus too far ahead, the Magpies have an extremely dangerous Elimination Final to contend with against Port Adelaide.
The Power are the good news story of 2013. Under new coach Ken Hinkley, Port Adelaide has turned itself from a cellar dweller into a finalist and has earned its spot in the top eight. With such a young, exciting midfield, Port Adelaide will cause the Magpies some serious headaches and knows that a win against Collingwood in a final will establish its credentials as one of the top sides in the competition.
It has been a topsy-turvy year for the Magpies but they enter the finals in genuinely good form and have managed to peak at the right time of the year. Despite still having injuries to key players, the Magpies are as strong on paper as they have been over the last two years and will be a side that most top eight teams will fear if they can find top gear.
Both sides are coming off a loss in round 23, but were importantly able to rest key players. Collingwood’s loss can be excused considering the game against North Melbourne was a dead rubber and there was very little defensive pressure from both sides. However, coach Nathan Buckley would be concerned with some of the sloppy ball use, which has been an issue for the Magpies over the last month, and will also be concerned by the ease with which North Melbourne won the clearances.
Port Adelaide had a shock loss to Carlton after leading by as much as seven goals. The Blues had plenty to play for considering a top eight spot was up for grabs, but nonetheless were able to expose the Power in the last quarter. On the one hand, Hinkley will put little emphasis on this loss considering Port Adelaide’s focus was always going to be on week one of the finals. On the other hand, the Blues may have knocked Port Adelaide around a little bit and were able to handle the pressure moments of the game better.
I expect both sides to put the losses of round 23 behind them very quickly and we should see a great battle at the MCG this Saturday night.
Recent History
The Power took their biggest scalp of the year when they beat the Magpies in round 14 by 35 points. Port Adelaide was able to expose Collingwood for foot-speed, work rate and intensity. Port Adelaide also showed a higher level of fitness, kicking five goals to two in the last quarter to run out the game much stronger.
Matthew Broadbent was Port Adelaide’s most prolific ball-winner, racking up 34 disposals, while Kane Cornes continued his stellar season with 31. Skipper Travis Boak was also dominant with 30 disposals and a goal. Chad Wingard was able to work through the Brent Macaffer tag to pick up 21 disposals and kick two vital goals, whilst Schulz kicked three goals for the victors. Youngster Oliver Wines had 26 disposals after starting as the sub.
For the Magpies, Paul Seedsman had one of his best games of the season picking up 34 possessions across half back and Nick Maxwell and Scott Pendlebury had 28 each. It was otherwise a sorry tale for the Magpies, with many stars well down on form such as Dane Swan who just couldn’t get into the game (only picking up 23 disposals and spending a lot of time up forward).
At the Selection Table
Both coaches have significant dilemmas ahead of selection this round. With a host of players pushing for selection, some tough calls will have to be made as to who will make room.
Starting with the Magpies, and Luke Ball looks certain to return to boost the midfield. His presence cannot be underestimated. Harry O’Brien should also be an automatic selection after he was a late withdrawal last week with the flu.
Also pushing for selection this week are Jamie Elliott and Ben Sinclair, who both have to pass fitness tests. Elliott, in particular, is pivotal to the forward line set up.
Despite the low intensity hitout against North Melbourne, the Magpies came out of the match with injury concerns for Nathan Brown and Quinten Lynch. If Lynch does not pull up, it may pave way for ruckman Darren Jolly to return after solid form at VFL level in the last three weeks. Ben Hudson and Jarrod Witts will also put their hand up for the second ruck role.
Clinton Young also returned in the VFL last week and showed promise. It is unfortunate for Young that the VFL season has now ended for the Magpies, and he may struggle to prove his fitness with no more match practice.
Turning the focus onto Port Adelaide, and key playmaker Hamish Hartlett will be the most notable return for the Power from a shoulder dislocation. In fact, Hinkley may have close to a full list to choose from with Robbie Gray and Alipate Carlisle also looking likely to return. In fact, the only player on the Port Adelaide list who is unavailable is ruckman Jarrad Redden who is out for the season.
It is an enviable position to be in as competition for spots is heating up and the Power has the luxury of playing their best side when it counts. On top of the players returning from injury, Jake Neade and Matt Thomas have been in strong form at SANFL level and seem like perfect finals players. Finding room may be the difficulty.
The Collingwood forward line v the Port Adelaide backline
At the beginning of the year, the Port Adelaide backline seemed like the weakest link in the side. The departure of Troy Chaplin seemingly left a big hole in the spine. As the year has worn on, the backline has quickly become a strength, with players such as Jack Hombsch, Jackson Trengove, Jasper Pittard, Tom Logan, Cameron O’Shea and Tom Jonas really emerging as a solid defensive unit in conjunction with Alipate Carlile. The ability to throw Justin Westhoff behind the ball also adds a solid Plan B and has worked throughout the year.
Collingwood on the other hand has struggled to find the best mix up forward. Nonetheless, Travis Cloke is in good form, coming off a five goal haul last week to narrowly miss out on the Coleman Medal. Ben Reid has also continued his strong form as a forward, also booting five goals (and nine over the past fortnight).
Alan Didak has added some class to the forward half while a number of midfield types such as Jarryd Blair, Steele Sidebottom, Josh Thomas and Sam Dwyer have been getting forward to assist. You feel as if the Pies really miss Elliott up forward considering he is a tenacious tackler and a genuine goal-kicker. The absence of Andrew Krakouer, Dale Thomas and Alex Fasolo has also hit hard.
I feel that Collingwood needs more from its small forwards if it is going to pose a genuine threat in September, which means Buckley may be sweating on the availability of Elliott.
Key Matchup – Cloke v Carlisle
For all the analysis, if Cloke has a big game then you feel Collingwood will win this game. Cloke is a proven finals performer and is having a career best season, so he will prove the key player this Saturday night again. Carlisle should be fresh after missing last week but will have his work cut out with Cloke who leads the competition for contested marks. For him to be at his most effective, Collingwood’s delivery needs to be better than it was last week.
The Midfield
The midfield battle as always will be very decisive. Collingwood has the proven A-Graders with finals experience, while Port Adelaide has the youth and x-factor. Port Adelaide’s ball movement and skill level has also been at a consistently higher level than the Magpies and they have a nice blend of inside and outside players.
I get the feeling that the star-studded Collingwood midfield will look to assert its dominance early and intimidate its younger opponents.
But Port Adelaide has some real class with Chad Wingard, Hamish Hartlett, Brad Ebert and Travis Boak all developing into elite players in 2013. I expect that Buckley will look to shut down at least two or three of these players on Saturday night, leaving a greater responsibility on the second stringers such as Broadbent and Wines.
Port Adelaide has thrived on the contested footy this year, which has typically been an area Collingwood has excelled as well. However, clearances have become an issue for the Magpies, and North Melbourne exposed them in this area last weekend 25-12.
Although the majority of the match-ups will be head to head, I expect to see the following two tags applied:
Cornes v Pendlebury – Pendlebury was this week awarded with the AFL Coaches Association Award which is regarded as one of the most prestigious awards outside of the Brownlow Medal. After yet another dominant display against North Melbourne last week, I expect Hinkley to lock down on Pendlebury with his best and most reliable tagger in Kane Cornes. Cornes has had a stellar season himself, but you get the feeling that he will need to do this job for the team on Saturday night as Pendlebury is the most damaging Collingwood midfielder.
Macaffer v Boak – Although the temptation will be to play Macaffer on Wingard again, I think Boak is the better match-up for Macaffer in both size and pace. Boak is the captain of Port Adelaide and the one who will need to lead his young midfield into this year’s finals series. If Collingwood can limit Boak’s influence, then it will leave a heavy burden on guys like Wines and Hartlett to fill the void. As Port Adelaide lacks the same level of finals experience, I think Buckley needs to target the leader and see if the others will fall.
The Port Adelaide Forward Line v the Collingwood Defence
The Collingwood defence has improved in the second half of the year, but question marks remain as to whether the move of Ben Reid into attack will expose the Magpies in September.
But in his absence, Nathan Brown and Lachlan Keeffe have been in good form and Tyson Goldsack and Nick Maxwell are versatile enough to play on most opponents. The emergence of Marley Williams as a small defender has filled the big void left by Alan Toovey, while Heath Shaw’s form has been good over the last fortnight.
Port Adelaide has a nice blend up forward, with Jay Schulz the main weapon and Westhoff the x-factor. Robbie Gray and Angus Monfries are very dangerous players as well and can kick goals. Like Collingwood, Port Adelaide gets good service out of its midfielders in terms of goal kicking. Wingard, for example, is a noted goal-kicker and match-winner.
Key Match-up
Keeffe v Westhoff – Nathan Brown may find himself on Westhoff. Westhoff has had a breakout year in 2013, playing in a variety of roles for the side. He is a strong marking option with great speed and work ethic. Keeffe will have his work cut out for him considering Westhoff has the ability to work high up the ground and even float across half back. It will require a team effort to keep him in check as it is unlikely Keeffe will follow if Westhoff moves higher up the field.
The Ruck – Grundy v Lobbe
This is going to be a fascinating battle between two young emerging rucks. Grundy’s emergence over the past two months has been a real story, and he has faced off against the likes of Dean Cox, Todd Goldstein, Shane Mumford, Mike Pyke and Dean Brogan. Strangely, though, this could be Grundy’s biggest test as it is a huge ask for a first year player to lead his side into a finals series. Lobbe is also a very athletic and quick man for his size and may expose Grundy should he tire later in the game. Although Grundy has matched it physically with some of the giants of the game, his biggest test may be whether he can match it with Lobbe athletically.
Port Adelaide Player Analysis
Chad Wingard – In only his second year, Wingard has set the AFL world alight. Although he is not the most prolific ball-winner, he still averages 21.4 disposals and has kicked a whopping 40 goals for the season having played all 22 matches. This includes match-winning solo efforts against Adelaide, where he kicked five goals, and Sydney, where he kicked three. Overall he averages just fewer than two goals a game, which is a huge effort for a half forward/midfield type player in only his second year. Brent Macaffer was used on him in round 14, but Wingard was still able to hit his average of 21 disposals and two goals. I am tipping Marley Williams to get the job this around in a run with role.
Brad Ebert – Another who has played all 22 matches and has had a career best year. Since moving from West Coast, Ebert has thrived and has become one of the core components of this developing midfield. Averaging 23 disposals and five tackles a game, Ebert has become reliable and also a much better user of the football. Although much of the focus will go onto Boak, Hartlett and Wingard, Ebert is one player who can sneak under the radar and rack up the disposals.
Angus Monfries – The former Essendon forward was recruited to Port Adelaide to deepen the midfield. Oddly enough, Monfries has settled himself as a forward again and is playing some terrific footy. He has kicked 37 goals for the year, and kicked a big bag of seven against Geelong only a few rounds ago. With so many other dangerous players to watch, Monfries is one the Magpies must keep an eye on. He may get the versatile Goldsack or Shaw as an opponent.
Collingwood Player Analysis
Heath Shaw – Heath needs a massive game on Saturday night as he is likely to square off against one of Port Adelaide’s most dangerous forwards in either Monfries or Gray. On top of his defensive duties, Shaw is also responsible for generating a lot of run and carry out of defence. It is a huge task, however I think Shaw is at his best when he can play on an opponent and work off them as opposed to having a tagger go to him and shut him down.
Dane Swan – Swan had one of his quietest games in as long as I can remember when these sides last met in round 14. Although 23 possessions is still a respectable tally, it was his inability to influence the game that was most surprising. Buckley tried utilising him as a forward but it didn’t work. Expect a huge come back from Swan this weekend. He is also now in terrific form, and he is a favourite for the Brownlow considering his statistics match up to his numbers in his Brownlow Medal winning year of 2011. He averages an incredible 31.6 disposals. With Luke Ball and Dayne Beams both in the side, and with Pendlebury in sparkling form, expect Swan to run riot on the MCG this Saturday.
Marley Williams – Williams is the story of the 2013 season for Collingwood in my opinion. Coming off the rookie list to fill the void of Alan Toovey, Williams has just got better with every game to the point that he is probably one of the first picked every week. His tenacity makes him a great back pocket and he has vastly solved Collingwood’s issue of dealing with small forwards. I expect Williams to be thrown the big job of Wingard. However, if Buckley wants to use him closer to goal, then Robbie Gray may be his man.
The Final Word
When I analyse the Port Adelaide list, I realise that this is not going to be an easy first up final for the Magpies. Port Adelaide’s midfield bats just as deep as Collingwood’s, and there is goal scoring power there.
Collingwood can expose Port Adelaide through its big forwards. Collingwood’s defence is also more established on paper than Port Adelaide.
The opening 10 minutes may be the most important for the Magpies. With a huge Collingwood army at the MCG, Port Adelaide will find it impossible to stop the momentum if the Magpies get off to a flyer. The Power needs to silence the Collingwood crowd early and not get overawed by the occasion.
In round 14, Port Adelaide taught the Magpies a lesson. Since then, Collingwood has addressed its work rate and has become a much more ferocious team. The impact of Dayne Beams cannot be underestimated. Therefore, Collingwood needs to sharpen up its act around the stoppages and match Port Adelaide’s intensity.
Although Port Adelaide has become renowned as one of the fittest teams in the competition, you would expect the hardened bodies of the Collingwood players to step up in September when it counts and grind the Power into the ground. If not, it will be the earliest end to the season for the Magpies for some time.
By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86
