That is the equation facing Collingwood if the club hopes to remain in contention for an elusive top four berth and snare a valuable double chance in the finals series.
With difficult encounters against Hawthorn, West Coast and North Melbourne on the horizon, no one could possibly begrudge Collingwood its place among the competition’s upper echelon should the side maintain its soaring trajectory and extend its current winning streak to six.
Such a scenario however still wouldn’t deliver Collingwood the fourth spot it desires as even assuming form merits, the Magpies ultimate fate lies in the hands of others.
In of itself, the challenge facing Collingwood in the coming weeks poses no guarantees.
Ladder leaders Hawthorn remain the competition’s benchmark, and a side which has troubled Collingwood more than most over the past 18 months, while the following week’s opponent West Coast possesses talent belying its current ladder position, and is an outside chance of snatching eighth.
Round 23 sees the Magpies face a North Melbourne side, which despite its well documented struggles to wrest victory in close encounters, represents a formidable challenge.
Successfully navigating these obstacles though would prove a redundant achievement if Sydney and Fremantle win two of its final three matches.
While it is widely predicted Fremantle will likely win its three remaining fixtures, with Hawthorn and Geelong looming as Sydney’s final two opponents of the season, the Swans face a more difficult task, but are immensely capable of emerging triumphant in both outings however tested.
Even if hypothetically, Sydney and Fremantle drop two matches and Collingwood wins its remaining three, the Magpies still wouldn’t be home, as it could still be surpassed by a Richmond side which sits level on points, but fractionally behind on percentage.
Ultimately, Collingwood must win two more matches than Sydney and Fremantle, while hoping it outperforms Richmond over the same period.
Further scenarios which would yield Collingwood a top four spot involve Geelong or Hawthorn losing each of its final three matches, while the Magpies win all three and bridge a considerable percentage gap, providing the varnish to a rather confounding portrait.
Should Collingwood finish outside the top four, the side would find itself shouldering the weight of history, with only two sides – Hawthorn in 2001 and the Magpies of 2007 – reaching a Preliminary Final without the benefit of a double chance.
On both occasions, the teams were ousted by the eventual premier, but not without a fight, with each contest decided by less than 10 points.
Collingwood came closest to producing the hitherto unachieved, an engrossing match resulting in Geelong producing a hard fought five point win in Nathan Buckley’s final senior appearance.
However, records are set to be broken, and history is there to be written.
With the 22 players who stepped onto Telstra Stadium last weekend boasting 42 Grand Final appearances between them, one would underestimate Collingwood at their own peril.
Can Buckley’s boys deliver a coveted 16th Premiership?
The task may be tough, but only time will tell.
The Run Home
1st Hawthorn
Collingwood (H) @ MCG
North Melbourne (A) @ ES
Sydney (A) @ TS
2nd Geelong
West Coast (A) @ S
Sydney (H) @ SS
Brisbane (H) @ SS
3rd Fremantle
Melbourne (A) @ MCG
Port Adelaide (H) @ S
St Kilda (H) @ S
4th Sydney
St Kilda (H) @ SCG
Geelong (A) @ SS
Hawthorn (H) @ TS
5th Collingwood
Hawthorn (A) @ MCG
West Coast (H) @ MCG
North Melbourne (H) @ MCG
6th Richmond
Carlton (H) @ MCG
GWS Giants (A) @ Skoda
Essendon (A) @ MCG
7th Essendon
North Melbourne (H) @ ES
Carlton (A) @ MCG
Richmond (H) @ MCG
8th Port Adelaide
Gold Coast (H) @ AS
Fremantle (A) @ S
Carlton (H) @ AS
9th Carlton
Richmond (A) @ MCG
Essendon (H) @ MCG
Port Adelaide (A) @ AS
10th West Coast
Geelong (H) @ S
Collingwood (A) @ MCG
Adelaide (H) @ S
