Since publishing his first report on Nick's Bulletin Board in early 2005, DaVe86 has become a weekly favourite among the passionate online Magpie Army receiving thousands of views for each article.
The articles are lengthy and have been published in their entirety as the club did not want to hinder DaVe86's creativity during the writing process.
The views expressed in DaVe86's previews are solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Collingwood Football Club.
After a weekend dominated by head high tackles, slide tackles, injuries and under-pressure coaches, we are quick to forget that season 2012 is shaping up as one of the hottest contested years in a long time. There is no stand out team at the moment and the pre-season favourites are just slowly starting to warm up.
The Brisbane Lions host Collingwood this weekend at the GABBA on Saturday night. Brisbane’s form is very questionable throughout the opening six weeks, with the only wins coming against cellar dwellers Melbourne and Gold Coast. The Lions were completely outplayed by Essendon last week and were exposed all over the field.
Brisbane is a side that has always lifted to play Collingwood, and should be primed for the game in front of a home crowd. It is a danger game for the Magpies who have finally snuck into the top eight and can’t afford a slip up. Collingwood has a tough draw ahead and needs to cash in against the lower ranked teams.
Recent History
As mentioned earlier, Brisbane has a history of troubling the Magpies. The Lions gave the Magpies a scare in round twenty-two last year before a five goal to one third quarter. Dane Swan polled the three votes with 33 possessions and two goals. Travis Cloke polled two votes booting five goals. Tom Rockliff polled the one vote with 30 possessions and two goals.
In Collingwood’s 2010 premiership season, Brisbane was the only side the Magpies could not claim a win against during the home and away season.
At the Selection Table
Collingwood’s injury dramas escalated this week with Ben Johnson requiring surgery for an injured shoulder. The club believes he is a chance to return late in the year. I wrote last week about Johnson’s important to the side, and his absence is really going to affect Collingwood’s run out of defence and ability to shut down small forwards.
In positive news, Darren Jolly, Dale Thomas, Alan Didak and Jarryd Blair are all strong chances to return. This will put pressure on Cameron Wood and Kirk Ugle to hold their spots. Alex Fasolo also seemed to struggle during the Western Bulldogs game and may be due for a rest.
Turning attention to Brisbane, and the Lions will likely regain Raines and Drummond. Both are crucial to the Brisbane Lions defence and be welcome additions. Raines will likely get the job on Pendlebury or Swan, while Drummond’s precision kicking out of defence will be vital when clearing the Collingwood zone.
Focus on Collingwood
Collingwood’s injury list is considerable. However, the impressive thing to emerge out of the last three rounds has been the rebuilding of depth. In the absence of Ball, Thomas, Didak and Tarrant, we have seen Sinclair, Keeffe, Beams and Sidebottom comfortably stepping into their roles. Sinclair in particular has cemented his spot in the side with terrific forward pressure and his confidence grows each and every week. Keeffe is locking down a position down back and was also experimented up forward last week rotating with Ben Reid. I also think Buckley will experiment with Keeffe in the ruck at some stage in the upcoming rounds.
Despite the fact that the defensive structures have not yet stabilised, the intensity and tackling pressure has returned. Collingwood is far from its best, but you get the feeling that the side is building into the season as opposed to peaking too soon as was the case in 2011.
Heath Shaw - With Ben Johnson out of the side, Shaw’s role becomes even more vital. He is the real run and carry out of defence now. He returned from two weeks on the sidelines last Friday night and was put on a wing where he looked very comfortable. He had 22 disposals, eight tackles and kicked two goals. He is one of the most vital players in the side. It will be interesting to see whether Buckley elects to continue to use Shaw on a wing with the absence of Johnson, or uses Shaw across half back again to generate run.
Steele Sidebottom - Earlier in the season, I wrote that this could be Sidebottom’s breakout year. After a sluggish start, I feel as if he has made enormous strides over the past three weeks. I think his opening halves against Essendon and Western Bulldogs really set up the wins, and he is attacking the ball with greater ferocity. He had 29 possessions last week and is enjoying greater time in the midfield.
Dayne Beams - Similar to Sidebottom, Beams has grabbed his chance in the midfield in the absence of a number of key players. This is the hardest I have seen Beams attack the football, and his clearance work is terrific. He had 33 possessions last week and fed Swan and Pendlebury all night. I think his game on ANZAC Day in particular has given him a lot of confidence as he has developed a reputation in his early career of fading in big games. He was a star in the narrow victory on the big stage, and backed it up last week against the Bulldogs.
Focus on Brisbane
The Lions are developing a very promising young midfield with the likes of Redden, Rockliff, Polec and Rich all developing into very good players. The problem however is the holes up forward and back. The Lions are lacking support for Jonathon Brown who is still a long way off full match-fitness, and are also a little exposed down back. Merrett has been forced to play forward a lot this season, and as such looked totally out of nick when he was moved back into defence against Crameri last week. Crameri booted four first quarter goals on him. Brisbane’s ruck division was bolstered with the recruitment of Ben Hudson over the pre-season, however has lost Leunberger through injury.
Matt Maguire - Goose has been a rare success story out of Brisbane’s questionable recruitment of recycled players. With holes up forward and down back, Maguire has been asked to step up and play key roles. He is undersized for the task, but you can never question his efforts. I write about Maguire this week as he will likely get the big job on Travis Cloke, with Merrett standing Chris Dawes. Patful was asked to play forward last week but may also be required down back to assist.
Pearce Hanley - He doesn’t receive a lot of attention here in Victoria, but Hanley is developing into a very handy player for the Brisbane Lions. Recruited from Ireland, he has adapted to AFL football really quickly and has become a regular in the side (he played all 22 games last year). He is a running defender, averaging 21 disposals so far in 2012. He is one to keep an eye on.
Daniel Rich - It will be interesting to see whether Collingwood elects to use a tag on Daniel Rich as his foot-skills have worried the Pies in the past. He has a history of struggling with attention from taggers, but he is improving as he gains experience. He is coming off a 29 disposal game against Essendon. He is also averaging a respectable 22 disposals so far this season. There is no doubt however that he needs to take his game to a new level as he has played 68 games now and needs to step up and become the leader in the midfield.
The Wrap Up
Although this is Brisbane’s home game, it is hard to see the young Brisbane side matching the Magpies all over the field. The Brisbane midfield needs to lift after it was totally overrun by the Bombers last week. Regardless, the Magpies should be able to cover the Brisbane forwards, and should be too strong for the Lions defenders.
By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86
