In 2017, David Natoli, aka DaVe86, returns to Collingwood Media to file his famous, in-depth tactical match previews.

Since publishing his first report on Nick's Bulletin Board in early 2005, DaVe86 has become a weekly favourite among the passionate online Magpie Army receiving thousands of views for each article.

The articles are lengthy and have been published in their entirety as the club did not want to hinder DaVe86's creativity during the writing process.

The views expressed in DaVe86's previews are solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Collingwood Football Club.

This week’s Ultimate Preview focuses on the clash between Collingwood and Geelong at the MCG this Sunday.

It looms as a massive challenge for the besieged Magpies who are currently languishing in 13th place on the AFL ladder. The Cats are currently undefeated and sit in second spot on the ladder.

Compounding the challenge for the Magpies is the fact that they must back up from only a five-day break after ANZAC Day. On the other hand, the Cats will be relatively fresh after a seven-day break.

Despite again being competitive, Collingwood’s loss against Essendon was a bitter pill to swallow. With only one win from its opening five games, Collingwood’s season has reached a crucial juncture. The Magpies have three games in twelve days, which is really going to test the resolve of this side. The big question is how the coaching staff is going to turn the fortunes of this side around in such a short time. The Magpies are clearly trying hard, but just look to be devoid of confidence and any system going forward.

It's a completely different story at the Cattery. Geelong has been challenged in recent weeks but the cream has risen to the top to ensure its undefeated record has remained in tact. Geelong is proving to be the best last quarter side in the competition, having won all five of its last quarters so far and booting 34 goals to nine so far this season. It’s a real credit to the fitness of this side, but also a real warning sign for the Magpies who will have to deal with such a short break between games. Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood in particular have really let loose in final quarters in recent weeks.

At the Selection Table
The five-day break has claimed key defender Ben Reid, who will be rested from this week’s match. Coming into the extended squad is Josh Smith, Lynden Dunn, Matt Scharenberg and Chris Mayne. Lynden Dunn will make his debut for Collingwood to cover Reid’s absence.

The Cats have elected to rest Daniel Menzel from this match, with Rhys Stanley, Tom Ruggles, Jed Bews and Sam Menegola coming back into the side. The Cats basically have a full list to choose from at the moment, and competition for spots is hot.

Recent History
Despite their start to the season, the fact is that Collingwood has been somewhat of a bogey team for the Cats in recent years. The Pies have won their last two encounters against Geelong quite comfortably, and have always had a knack of lifting for Geelong games.

These sides last met in round nine last year where it was the Magpies who blew the game wide open in the first quarter kicking seven goals to nothing. Despite a spirited comeback, the Magpies were able to hold on by 24 points to record a big upset. Steele Sidebottom was the standout player of the match, with 31 disposals, which secured him the three Brownlow votes. Scott Pendlebury polled two votes for his three goal and 26 disposal game, while Adam Treloar polled one vote with 29 disposals and a goal.

The Magpies would love those three names to have big games this week!

Focus on Collingwood
Watching the Magpies on ANZAC Day really felt like Groundhog Day. Yet again Collingwood had considerably more inside 50s (66-43) and more scoring shots. Yet inaccuracy and inefficiency going forward was the difference. Essendon was able to kick a number of goals from turnovers, which really sunk the hearts. There’s no denying the effort is there, but the execution hasn’t been evident.

What’s the answer for Collingwood? For mine, the Pies need to play more directly and take the game on more. That’s easier said than done, though.

It was disappointing to see Collingwood beaten in the clearances last week (41-37). So far this season, the Magpies are ranked fourth for clearances, so I thought it was one area which would prove an advantage. The Bombers were also able to kick a number of goals from stoppages as well. I think we’ll see the Magpies tighten up this area this week.

Player Focus – Collingwood
Daniel Wells – It took five rounds for Collingwood to unveil their star recruit, and the wait was worth it on ANZAC Day. Although Wells started slowly and at times lacked a bit of touch, he managed to pick up 24 disposals and kick two important goals. He should get better with every week, but it will be a challenge for him to back up for his second game after only a five-day break. He looks like he will compliment Collingwood’s midfield nicely.

Alex Fasolo – Fasolo is Collingwood’s leading goal kicker this year, but his set shot kicking has absolutely deserted him. He is usually the most reliable kick for goal in the side, but he has officially now got the yips from set shots. He has kicked 9.13 so far this year, and his misses are starting to really cost the side. Fasolo is still getting into dangerous positions and he looks to be Collingwod’s best target up forward, but we just need him to nail his shots.

Jamie Elliott – The biggest positive to come out of ANZAC Day was Jamie’s return to form. His return game in round four was very quiet, but he managed to boot three goals last week to prove Collingwood’s most effective forward. As time goes by, he and Fasolo should form a very dangerous combination given their fantastic ability in both the air and ground level. It’s just great to see him back!

Focus on Geelong
When analyzing Geelong, most experts will look straight to Dangerfield and Selwood. The ‘Dangerwood’ combination has been close to unstoppable this year, with both players ranked inside the top 10 in the AFL official ratings (Dangerfield is ranked first). But the key to Geelong’s success this year has been the greater spread of contributors, with the likes of Mitch Duncan, Steven Motlop, George Horlin-Smith, Zach Tuohy, Brendan Parfitt and Jordan Murdoch all stepping up.

The Cats look well balanced all over the field, and have even had the luxury of playing Harry Taylor up forward for large chunks of the season. Although this experiment hasn’t necessarily been a big success, it has definitely assisted Tom Hawkins who is ranked second for the Coleman Medal with 18 goals. So in many respects, the freedom to play Taylor forward is having a positive impact, as the Cats have scored over 100 points in every game so far this season.

It will be an interesting game for Geelong given it faces an opposition that has troubled them in the past, and also has plenty to prove. This is one game the Cats simply need to check off if they want to keep up with the likes of Adelaide and Greater Western Sydney.

Player Focus – Geelong
Zac Tuohy – The Cats were keen to recruit Tuohy last year and sacrificed a first round pick to get him. The biggest criticism of Geelong last year was a perceived lack of speed off half back. Tuohy has somewhat resolved that issue. He is averaging 25 disposals, and was particularly good last week with 32 disposals. The beauty of Tuohy is that he is also a very good one on one defender while he still has the ability to really attack off half back with his speed and foot skills. He has made a huge difference to this side.

Joel Selwood – His game last week against St Kilda was one of the best you will see, finishing with 41 disposals and a goal, to go with 9 tackles. When the game was tight in the second half, he really lifted. In the past, Collingwood has tagged Selwood with Levi Greenwood, so it will be interesting to see whether Collingwood uses this tactic again given it hasn’t tagged so far this season. Either way, Selwood’s influence must be curtailed if the Magpies are any hope this week.

Steven Motlop – Motlop struggled in 2016, but has returned to form this year. Averaging 20 disposals a game, to go with his 8 goals, Motlop looks fit and dangerous. His form is so crucial to Geelong’s hopes this year as he adds x-factor and ability to turn a game.

The Wrap-Up
On paper, some would argue Geelong should win this game. But Collingwood has always troubled Geelong and has a point to prove.

I have no doubt that Collingwood will be competitive, but the real challenge will be whether it can run with Geelong for four quarters given the short break and the fact that Geelong is the best final quarter side in the competition.

It makes the start crucial. Collingwood’s win against Geelong last year was set up by a dominant first quarter, and similar will need to happen this week. The Magpies need to convert a few early goals, and maybe that will give them a bit of momentum. Scott Pendlebury will lead from the front after a tough two weeks.

The Cats look the more balanced side, but Collingwood has a deeper midfield. All hopes rest on that midfield getting on top and dominating from the outset. It’s a big ask, but a win against the odds would be a massive boost to Collingwood’s confidence and may just be the spark it needs.

By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86