Collingwood has nearly shut the door on sides outside the top six after its comfortable victory over the Western Bulldogs.
But the Dogs (and to a lesser extent, Gold Coast) are still in with a shot, while the final order of the top six is still well and truly up for grabs with two rounds remaining.
1. Adelaide
28 points (seven wins, one loss), 222.1 per cent
Adelaide is well-placed to defend last year's minor premiership, and with a four-point buffer on third, has nearly sealed its top-two spot and home preliminary final. Seeing off the rejuvenated Collingwood may be a bit more of a challenge than St Kilda.
The run home
R9: Collingwood @ Norwood Oval
R10: St Kilda @ RSEA Park
2. Melbourne
28 points (seven wins, one loss), 164.5 per cent
With victory over North Melbourne, Melbourne jumped from fourth to a prized second position, one win clear of third spot. They've got the firepower (and a good record) to defeat Fremantle, which would all but guarantee a preliminary final.
The run home
R9: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium
R10: Carlton @ Casey Fields
3. Fremantle
24 points (six wins, two loss), 189.3 per cent
A disappointing loss to Adelaide has seen Fremantle fall four points behind the top two. The Dockers' percentage also plummeted by 22, although it's still better than second-place Melbourne. Defeat the Demons this weekend and the top-two race is well and truly back on.
The run home
R9: Melbourne @ Optus Stadium
R10: Gold Coast @ Fremantle Oval
4. Brisbane
24 points (six wins, two losses), 186.3 per cent
Brisbane's percentage rose by an astonishing 30 on the back of its thrashing of West Coast. If the Lions win both matches and other results go their way, top two is still a possibility, and finals have now been guaranteed. This weekend's match against North Melbourne will have a big bearing on the order of the top six.
The run home
R9: North Melbourne @ Maroochydore
R10: Western Bulldogs @ Mars Stadium
5. North Melbourne
24 points (six wins, two loss), 152.5 per cent
Despite its disappointing loss to Melbourne, the good news for North Melbourne is it has qualified for its third straight finals series. The Roos' percentage means top two is unlikely, and they'll have to see off Brisbane in order to help lock in a home qualifying final.
The run home
R9: Brisbane @ Maroochydore
R10: West Coast @ Arden Street
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6. Collingwood
20 points (five wins, three losses), 111.8 per cent
Collingwood is the one side who is vulnerable to dropping out of the top six, with a six-point buffer on the Western Bulldogs and Gold Coast with two rounds remaining. Win at least one of its remaining matches – and it should be too strong for Richmond at home – and it'll be a third consecutive finals appearance for the Pies.
The run home
R9: Adelaide @ Norwood Oval
R10: Richmond @ Victoria Park
7. Western Bulldogs
14 points (three wins, one draw, four losses), 84.6 per cent
Finals are now out of the Western Bulldogs' control. The Doggies will have to knock off West Coast (should win) and Brisbane at Ballarat (a much tougher prospect), hope Collingwood loses both its matches, and that Gold Coast loses at least one game.
The run home
R9: West Coast @ Optus Stadium
R10: Brisbane @ Mars Stadium
8. Gold Coast
14 points (three wins, one draw, four losses), 79.4 per cent
After just falling short against the winless St Kilda, a few things have to go right in order for Gold Coast to qualify for its second finals series. The Suns will have to see off Carlton and Fremantle at Fremantle Oval, hope Collingwood loses both its matches, and the Dogs drop one of their two.
The run home
R9: Carlton @ Ikon Park
R10: Fremantle @ Fremantle Oval
9. Carlton
12 points (three wins, five losses), 72.1 per cent
We're now into "mathematical chance" territory. After a very tough opening half to its fixture, Carlton has shown its better than the bottom sides, stringing together a few wins. Two thumping wins to regain percentage, and two losses each for all of Collingwood, Western Bulldogs and Gold Coast are needed.
The run home
R9: Gold Coast @ Ikon Park
R10: Melbourne @ Casey Fields
10. GWS
12 points (three wins, five losses), 64.6 per cent
Again, a mathematical chance. Two gigantic wins to make up the near-40 per cent gap, and two losses each to Collingwood, Western Bulldogs and Gold Coast.
