Since publishing his first report on Nick's Bulletin Board in early 2005, DaVe86 has become a weekly favourite among the passionate online Magpie Army receiving thousands of views for each article.
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In what is being dubbed ‘Christmas in July’, round 17 truly shapes up as a cracking round of football. Every top eight side plays each other, while those sitting just outside the eight have one last chance to salvage the season.
Arguably, the match of the round is at the MCG on Saturday afternoon between Collingwood and Hawthorn. Although Sydney is looming as the real dark horse in the competition, Hawthorn and Collingwood remain the two premiership favourites.
Collingwood bounced back from a horrendous game against Carlton to record a very solid win against Geelong last round. An eight goal opening quarter all but sealed the win and Collingwood was able to maintain the lead throughout the match.
Hawthorn also had a very dominant win against Western Bulldogs. In contrast to the Magpies, the Hawks did all their damage in the second half. The Bulldogs were only able to kick one goal after half time. In fact, as reported on afl.com.au, Hawthorn has scored a whopping 235 to 36 points in third quarters since round nine.
It is going to be a very interesting battle between one of the better starting sides in the competition against one of the better finishing sides.
At the Selection Table
Both sides have had injury concerns all season.
For the Hawks, Lance Franklin will miss at least another two weeks with a hamstring injury. Luke Hodge is listed as ‘test’ on the injury list but is still unlikely to return after spending so long on the sidelines with a back injury. Brent Guerra also remains on the sidelines due to suspension.
Max Bailey returned to the VFL last week and performed well, but it seems unlikely that Hawthorn will make many changes after such a solid month of football. Shane Savage and Bradley Hill are also right on the fringe for a recall.
Over at the Westpac Centre, and the news is improving with Chris Tarrant and Scott Pendlebury performing strongly in their first games back following long stints on the sideline. Alan Didak will also return to the VFL this weekend as he begins to make his case for a spot in the Collingwood top 22 leading into finals.
Of the remaining players, Paul Seedsman and Peter Yagmoor could be chances to earn a senior recall if any spot becomes available, while Luke Rounds is gradually regaining his touch at VFL level.
Focus on Collingwood
The Magpies got their offensive game flowing again last round against Geelong, but again faded late in the game. There has been a concerning trend throughout the year for poor finishes to games. This will need to be addressed as Hawthorn has been a terrific second half side of late.
The Burning Question - Can Collingwood play three talls up forward?
With Chris Tarrant returning seamlessly to the forward line last week, the question on everyone’s lips has been whether the Magpies can play Tarrant alongside Travis Cloke and Chris Dawes. The answer in my mind is an overwhelming YES.
In fact, if you look at the team’s balance right now, Nathan Buckley has regained the premiership winning structure of 2010. In the premiership year, Leigh Brown played as the third tall forward and pinch-hitting ruckman. Now, Dawes is playing the pinch-hitting ruckman role and Tarrant has assumed the second tall role. Buckley has also tried Ben Reid and Lachlan Keeffe as a third tall this year, so it has clearly been a structure he has wanted to adopt. Injuries to key talls have restricted the ability to do this.
Further, Tyson Goldsack has stepped into the Brent Macaffer role of a mid-sized defensive forward who can punish unaccountable opponents with goals. Remember that Nathan Buckley’s role in 2010 was the forward coach and he was responsible for the forward-line set-up. It is a formula that has worked in the past and Buckley will continue to experiment with throughout the season.
Heath Shaw - Last week I called on Heath Shaw to lift and he was perhaps best on ground against Geelong across half back. When Shaw is on song, the Magpies generate so much run off half back and he can be near impossible to shut down. I am focusing on Shaw again as he is likely to face Paul Puopolo this round who has been a real weapon as a defensive forward for Hawthorn all year. He is a clever goal scorer, and can shut down attacking defenders. Buckley will be well aware of Puopolo’s impact and look to keep Shaw on the move to give him freedom early.
Scott Pendlebury - Pendles stepped straight back into the side as if he never left in round 16. He had 36 disposals and totally carved up Geelong through the middle. In turn, Dayne Beams was given more freedom and he also had 36 disposals after a quieter fortnight. Dane Swan also notched up 40 disposals. Pendlebury’s presence also gives Dale Thomas the chance to play more as a forward and reduces the burden on Steele Sidebottom and Jarryd Blair to play as pure midfielders. He may go head to head against Brad Sewell this week who is also in terrific form and has been doing some solid defensive roles all season.
Nathan Brown - Brown has made a terrific return to the side following a long stint on the sidelines, and has to endure a number of mishaps along the way. He also hurt his knee against this year and has fought his way back into the side quickly. However, his form has been patchy over the last month and he has been beaten some of his opponents. His job won’t get easier this week against Jarryd Roughead who is one of the in-form forwards in the competition right now. Brown’s form is crucial to Collingwood as it will allow Tarrant to play forward. He is also the best option for the ‘monster forwards’ who have always worried Tarrant and Reid for strength.
Focus on Hawthorn
The Hawks are a highly skilled side. The precision kicking has always worried the Collingwood, which is why Hawthorn is one of the sides the Magpies would be most concerned about in the finals. In recent weeks, Hawthorn’s intensity has been first class as well. It possesses a highly talented forward line, a midfield with a lot of depth and a solid backline.
The two areas which many perceive to be Hawthorn’s weakness are an undersized defence and lack of a quality ruckman. However, these factors may be overstated as the Hawks have really tightened up defensively in 2012.
Further, David Hale and Roughead have formed a formidable ruck duo that can really hurt their opponents when pushing forward.
The Burning Question - Do Hawks deserve premiership favouritism?
Hawthorn has won nine of its past 10 games, including the last six on the trot. However, all of those wins except the Fremantle victory have come against sides that were outside of the top eight at the time. The next month is a lot more difficult for the Hawks with matches against Collingwood, Essendon and West Coast. You get the impression that Hawthorn needs a few big scalps to really establish itself as the outright premiership favourite. This will have to be done without Buddy Franklin.
Jack Gunston - With Franklin out, it was Gunston who really stepped up with four goals against the Bulldogs. Gunston has quietly gone about his business all year, but has now really cemented his spot in the side. You get the impression he feels as if he belongs now and is benefitting from consistent football in a defined role. Gunston will be planned for this week by the Collingwood backline, especially in the absence of Franklin. He is likely to get Nick Maxwell as an opponent who will have to be careful not to give him much latitude. Gunston is an awkward height because he is too tall for the mid-sized defenders, but too nimble for the key position backs. Don’t be surprised to see Reid or Brown go to Gunston to try to shut him down completely.
Stephen Gilham - Gilham was a late inclusion into the Hawthorn team last weekend for only his fourth game of the season. You get the impression he will be a crucial player to the structure of the side in the run home to finals. His inclusion allowed Ryan Shoenmakers to play forward and he was able to kick two goals in that role. However, with the three talls of the Magpies to contend with, I feel as if Shoenmakers will play defence again this week alongside Gibson and Gilham. If Shoenmakers goes into defence, it means Gunston will have to play as the second tall alongside Roughead up forward. Gilham will be looking to string a few games together now before finals and really solidify the Hawthorn backline.
Sam Mitchell - Mitchell has snuck under the radar this year but remains one of the premier on-ballers in the competition. He seemed to suffer from some niggling injuries earlier in the year, but now seems to be running on top of the ground and is back to his ball-winning best. He is coming off a 34-disposal game against Western Bulldogs which should be enough to see him receive best on ground honours. In particular, he has a terrific record against Collingwood and always enjoys the freedom given to him. He is likely to go head to head against the in-form Dayne Beams. I would like to see Collingwood place a hard-tag on him, but the Magpies have barely set any tight tags all season. Mitchell will therefore be a real key to the game as the battle of the midfield will be vital.
The Round One Encounter
Collingwood has definitely improved since its 22-point loss in round one. However, I believe the Hawks have also improved a lot in this time. Although Hawthorn would have gained a lot of confidence from round one, you get the feeling that it counts for little now and this will be a battle between two very different sides. The Magpies have regained a host of players an introduced a number of players as well. Hawthorn has built its season nicely and looks to be timing its run for finals perfectly.
The Wrap-Up
Without Buddy Franklin and Luke Hodge, I think Collingwood goes into the game as favourite. However, I believe Hawthorn has the best depth in the competition and is more than capable of handling the absence of a few key players.
Both sides possess A-class midfields, although I think Collingwood’s is still slightly stronger. What Hawthorn does possess is genuine match-winners in Cyril Rioli and Jarryd Roughead. Sam Mitchell is also the number one extractor on the ground and can take the game by the scruff of its neck.
It is an incredibly even match-up against two sides that play different styles of football. Hawthorn will look to back its skills and move the ball quickly by foot. Collingwood will look to make the game scrappy and remove the skill factor and try to use its midfield depth to run the Hawks off their feet.
Apart from the midfield, I think the big test will be how Collingwood manages Roughead, and Hawthorn manages Cloke. Cloke has struggled for his top form recently but is due for a big game soon. If Cloke is well held, Dawes and Tarrant need to follow up from impressive games last round.
By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86
