In 2015, David Natoli, aka DaVe86, returns to Collingwood Media to file his famous, in-depth tactical match previews.

Since publishing his first report on Nick's Bulletin Board in early 2005, DaVe86 has become a weekly favourite among the passionate online Magpie Army receiving thousands of views for each article.

The articles are lengthy and have been published in their entirety as the club did not want to hinder DaVe86's creativity during the writing process.

The views expressed in DaVe86's previews are solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Collingwood Football Club.

The Home and Away season reaches a crucial stage in round fifteen. 

Collingwood and Port Adelaide are both in need of a victory, with the Magpies losing their last two games and Port Adelaide losing their previous three games.

Despite the recent losses, the formline of these two sides could not provide more of a contrast.

In many respects, Collingwood has gained credibility in the last two weeks, only narrowly losing to Fremantle and Hawthorn. In both these games, Collingwood had many opportunities to win, but made mistakes at crucial moments. While no doubt disappointed by the losses, the Magpies would take confidence from knowing they are rapidly closing the gap between themselves and the top sides.

On the other hand, Port Adelaide has plummeted to twelfth on the ladder with five wins to its name after 14 rounds. With experts genuinely considering the Power as a premiership chance this year, they will be desperate for a victory at their home ground. It may be too steep a mountain to climb if Port Adelaide can’t win this week.

Based purely on the formline, Collingwood has every right to go into this game as favourites. The Magpies realistically should win if they can maintain the same intensity which they’ve played with over the past fortnight.

As was seen in seven games of AFL football last weekend, this match will feature an added layer of emotion following the tragic death of Phil Walsh. Walsh had strong ties to both clubs. He commenced his career at Collingwood, however was most recently associated with Port Adelaide where he was assistant coach in 2014. There is no doubt the Power will be keen to pay tribute to its former mentor and will play with plenty of passion on Thursday night. Whilst I don’t like analysing a game based on emotion, it can have a big effect on a game of footy when channelled correctly.

A trip to the Adelaide Oval for the Magpies means the game will be played in front of a parochial Port Adelaide home crowd. We have seen recently how big an impact the home crowd can have at Adelaide Oval considering the noise that gets generated. While Port Adelaide was able to make this ground a real fortress last year, it has already been beaten at this venue four times in 2015. The home side will be calling on its fans to be vocal this week, so the Magpies need to start well to silence the crowd.

Recent History

Collingwood has had the better of against Port Adelaide in recent history, winning seven of the last nine matches between the two sides.

In round nineteen last season it was the Magpies who narrowly won by six points with Dayne Beams adjudged best afield with 32 disposals and a goal, whilst Hamish Hartlett was the best player for Port Adelaide with 23 disposals and four goals (earning him the two brownlow votes). The one vote went to Steele Sidebottom who had 31 disposals and booted two goals. Taylor Adams played a breakout game, finishing with had 28 disposals and 7 tackles.

At the Selection Table

Given the Thursday night fixture, team-sheets will be released on Wednesday night.

Selection will be very interesting for the Magpies and coach Nathan Buckley, with so many players to choose from at VFL level. Unfortunately, Ben Reid is not one of them, with the All-Australian defender suffering another calf complaint. Brodie Grundy however performed well in the VFL against Sandringham and looks a certain inclusion this week.

In other positive news, Paul Seedsman responded well to his omission and will put his hand up for selection, whilst Ben Kennedy and Matthew Scharenberg again continue to impress at VFL level. Jonathon Marsh, Sam Dwyer, Clinton Young and Patrick Karnezis are others who keep knocking on the door and deserve a chance. Ben Sinclair also returned from injury last week and would be a handy inclusion, but may require more game time at VFL Level before he is considered. Levi Greenwood was rested last week but is available for selection when the Magpies travel to Footscray to take on Footscray on Saturday.

Port Adelaide also has some decisions to make at the selection table. Coach Ken Hinkley recently vowed to omit any players who are not performing. With the axe looming, expect a number of changes this week. It will be interesting to see whether Hinkley sticks to his word and drops senior players, or whether he again turns to his experience to bounce back, especially given the emotional week the club has had with the death of Phil Walsh. His plans may have changed in this regards.

Jay Schulz controversially escaped suspension and is available to play, as is Jackson Trengove who was a late withdrawal last round.  At SANFL level the likes of Karl Amon, Sam Gray and Jake Neade will all put their hands if required. However Jared Polec and Matt White remain sidelined with injury.

Focus on Collingwood

There is a lot to like about the way the Magpies are playing. The Pies dominated the Hawks in clearances (despite the fact Hawthorn won the first nine of the game), and won convincingly in the contested possession count. Collingwood also had five more scoring shots than the Hawks, more possessions, more tackles and kicked a whopping eight goals from stoppages.

This should have translated into a win. Collingwood can only be satisfied with respectable losses for so long and need to look at a number of key moments which have cost the team dearly. However, the Magpies have struggled to string together four quarter efforts all year, and these momentary lapses were taken advantage of by the two best teams in the comp.

The other area of concern for coach Nathan Buckley is the fact that small forwards have torn Collingwood apart in the past fortnight. Michael Walters kicked four crucial goals for Fremantle in round 13, whilst Cyril Rioli booted five last week. Overall, neither Walters nor Rioli “dominated” the match in terms of possessions (Walters had 13 and Rioli 10), but both were able to impact the game profoundly on the scoreboard. Port Adelaide also possess dominant small forwards in Robbie Gray, Angus Monfries and Chad Wingard. Collingwood cannot allow one of these three to kick a bag.

Player Focus

Dane Swan – Swanny has been in terrific form and will celebrate his 250^th game this week. He may not be averaging the same numbers he once did, but in 2015 Swan has proved a handful up forward and all over the ground, pretty much doing as he pleases. He booted another two goals last week (taking his season tally to 13), and was also really good in the last quarter playing as a permanent forward. I expect to see Swan spending much more time in this role. He draws the ball and is a terrific one-on-one player. Congratulations to Swanny on his milestone.

Scott Pendlebury – It has been speculated for some time now that the Collingwood skipper has been carrying an injury, which has explained some quieter performances of late. However, he bounced back last week against the Hawks in a best afield performance. He had 37 disposals (20 of which were contested) and also laid 10 tackles. Some of his work in close was as good as you will ever see, managing to make space where none existed. Whilst the Magpies have managed to perform without Pendlebury at his absolute best, it is pleasing to see him return to form.

Jamie Elliott – Elliott has had a quiet few weeks by his lofty standards, and was well held last week by Ben Stratton. He only managed 10 disposals for the game and didn’t kick a goal. He has only averaged 11 disposals over the last three rounds, however he’s maintained his capacity to find the goals.  Elliott is due for a big one soon. It is unusual for him to stay down for too long and this could be the weekend.

Focus on Port Adelaide

It’s hard to say why Port Adelaide has dropped off so much this year. Statistically, the Power are simply not scoring, only averaging 83 points a game this season compared to 100 last year. They are also ranked very low for marks inside 50. For such an offensively driven side, these statistics are alarming.

In some regards, the competition has begun unravelling Port Adelaide’s game plan by crowding the corridor and forcing them into booting it long down the line. The issue with this for Port Adelaide is that its key forwards are not your standard ‘power forwards’, and aren’t noted for contested marking. Therefore, if you can stifle Port Adelaide’s run then you can shut down the scoring.

There is no doubt that Port Adelaide has the top end talent which is still capable of blowing a side away. This was evident in its win against Hawthorn earlier in the year when it booted nine goals in the opening quarter.

Player Focus

Chad Wingard – Whilst a number of other high profile players have been down in form this year, Wingard has continued to be one of the most dangerous players in the competition. He has kicked 29 goals at an average of 2.2 per match. The last month in particular has been particularly productive for Wingard, averaging 3.75 goals during this time including three last week against Sydney, five against Carlton and four against Geelong. He typically performs well against Collingwood and I expect Alan Toovey to get the daunting match-up on Thursday night.

Robbie Gray – Along with Wingard, Gray has continued his stellar 2014 season with an equally impressive 2015. He is averaging 26 disposals per game and five tackles, along with a goal a game. These are elite numbers for a midfield/forward, which is why is he is the highest ranked player in this category in the official AFL player rankings. He was particularly good last week against Sydney with 32 disposals and a goal.

Hamish Hartlett – Hartlett was Port Adelaide’s best player when these sides last met in 2014, claiming two Brownlow votes and kicking four goals. He has had a modest 2015 to date, averaging 21 disposals and only kicking six goals for the season so far. Whilst these numbers aren’t bad, they are nowhere near at the level Hartlett would expect. It is an opportunity to bounce back into form against the Magpies, who are a side he typically enjoys playing against. His outside run and carry is vital to the way Ken Hinkley wants his team to play.

The Wrap Up

On form alone, it is hard to go past the Magpies. Port Adelaide struggles most when a side puts immense pressure on its ball movement and stifles its run. Collingwood was terrific at this last week against Hawthorn and was equally good the week before against Fremantle. If the Magpies brings this pressure, they should win the game.

With this in mind, Port Adelaide is the sort of side that cannot be taken lightly considering how talented their midfield and forward line is, and how quickly they can score. The Power is a momentum side, and is just about unstoppable when they have the home crowd behind them and they get a run on.

Collingwood have had lapses all season, and Port Adelaide is the sort of side that can take advantage of a shift in momentum. Therefore, the Magpies need to ensure these lapses in concentration do not occur. If Collingwood plays four good quarters of football, it should win this game.

Pies by 14 points

By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86